Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

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DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
110 PM CHST THU APR 10 2014

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS EASING AS RAINFALL BECOMES MORE SEASONAL...

SYNOPSIS...
AN EL NINO WATCH THAT WAS ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
REMAINS IN EFFECT...WHICH IN THIS CASE MEANS THAT EL NINO COULD
REPLACE THE CURRENT ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS BY THE COMING MID-SUMMER
OR FALL MONTHS. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
PACIFIC OCEAN AT THIS TIME...BUT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC HAS WEAKENED AND THE LARGER-SCALE PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC
OCEAN HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. RECENT SHOWERS HAVE REDUCED
THE DROUGHT SEVERITY...BUT DRY WEATHER WILL STILL AFFECT THE FAR
NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS NORTH OF 10 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE FROM
160 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE DATE LINE FOR THE
NEXT FEW WEEKS.

MOST OF THE CLIMATE MODELS INDICATE THE ENSO-NEUTRAL PATTERN WILL
PERSIST INTO JUNE...WITH AN EL NINO PATTERN DEVELOPING IN THE SUMMER
OR FALL MONTHS. FOR THE COMING WEEKS...SOME TRADE-WIND SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN ATOLLS OF THE REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS... SUCH AS UTIRIK...RONGELAP AND ENEWETAK. FARTHER SOUTH FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RMI ISLANDS AND ATOLLS...RAINFALL WILL BE
VARIABLE BUT ADEQUATE FOR LOCAL USAGE.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

MAJURO...
IN THE FIRST 8 DAYS OF APRIL...RAINFALL AT MAJURO IS NEARLY 2 INCHES
ABOVE NORMAL. THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS IN THE COMING WEEK OR TWO...WITH A FEW PERIODS OF DRIER
CONDITIONS. AS OF 8 APRIL 2014...THE MAJURO RESERVOIR CONTAINED OVER
22.5 MILLION GALLONS OF WATER...WHICH IS TWO-THIRDS OF ITS CAPACITY.

ATOLLS NORTH OF MAJURO...
SOME TRADE-WIND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE COMING DAYS...BUT DRY
WEATHER PERSISTS NORTH OF 10 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. AREAS TO THE
NORTH OF 10N WILL RECEIVE LOW AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IN THE COMING
WEEKS. CONSERVATION MEASURES ARE STILL NEEDED TO AVOID THE DEPLETION
OF THE WATER LENS AND CATCHMENTS THAT WERE PARTIALLY RECHARGED
DURING THE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS IN MARCH.

DAMAGE TO FOOD CROPS MAY HAVE OCCURRED ON SMALLER ISLANDS AND ATOLLS
WHERE RAINFALL WAS SPARSE. FOOD ASSISTANCE MAY BE NECESSARY IF
DAMAGE TO PLANTS AND FRUITS OCCURRED DURING THE DRY PERIODS. WATER
CATCHMENTS SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS.

ATOLLS SOUTH OF MAJURO...
ADEQUATE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
ALTHOUGH AN EL NINO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...THE ENSO-NEUTRAL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE SPRING MONTHS INTO
SUMMER. CLOSER TO NORMAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE COMING
WEEKS.

SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS...

                  FEBRUARY    MARCH    APRIL 8  DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL
                                                   FOR APRIL 1-8
MARSHALL ISLANDS
MAJURO...           12.19      5.96       4.71       PLUS 1.70
KWAJALEIN...        13.82     11.17       1.20      MINUS 0.46
UTIRIK...            1.60      5.58       0.04      MINUS 1.67
WOTJE...             3.39      2.45       0.18      MINUS 1.73

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
THE DRY FLOW WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC IS ALSO CAUSING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF
MICRONESIA.

REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

MAJURO...
A RELATIVELY MOIST TRADE-WIND FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MARSHALL
ISLANDS WILL PRODUCE INCREASING RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE COMING DAYS.
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT MAJURO COULD RECEIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 3 TO 7 INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND BETWEEN 6 TO
10 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. ALL CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE
MAINTAINED FOR PEOPLE TO CATCH RAIN WATER DURING HEAVIER RAIN SHOWER
EVENTS.

ATOLLS NORTH OF MAJURO...
SATELLITE AND COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED BUT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR AREAS NORTH
OF 10 DEGREES NORTH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. FOR AREAS NORTH OF
10N...SUCH AS ENEWETAK... BIKINI...RONGELAP...UTIRIK AND MEJIT...
RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM 0.1 TO 0.3 INCH THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WITH UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS. CONSERVATION
MEASURES ARE APPROPRIATE. FOR WOTJE AND KWAJALEIN AREAS...WHICH ARE
SOUTH OF 10N...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS SHOULD PRODUCE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND 3 TO 6 INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT
10 DAYS.

ATOLLS SOUTH OF MAJURO...
THE CONVERGENCE OF A MOIST TRADE-WIND FLOW WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
RAINFALL FOR THE MARSHALL ISLANDS SOUTH OF MAJURO. COMPUTER MODELS
INDICATE THAT 4 TO 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THIS
AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

OTHER IMPACTS...
AS OF APRIL 7TH 2014 THE CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AREA WAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF 5 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE FROM 145 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE
EASTWARD TO THE DATE LINE. PEOPLE CAN MONITOR THE NOAA CORAL REEF
WATCH WEBSITE FOR BLEACHING ALERTS AND WARNINGS AT:
HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML (LOWER CASE).

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS WILL BE THE LAST SCHEDULED DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON THIS EVENT...HOWEVER THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN GUAM AND THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MAJURO
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR ANY CHANGES.
REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS AND YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATING OFFICE FOR
THE LATEST WEATHER.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...

NWS WFO GUAM...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GUAM/ /UNDER MENU ITEM CLIMATE...MORE/

PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.SOEST.HAWAII.EDU/MET/ENSO/INDEX2.HTML

NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING...
HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE
PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH
INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY
OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT
MAJURO...AND THE USAID SUBREGIONAL OFFICE MAJURO.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...

WFO TIYAN GUAM
3232 HUENEME RD
BARRIGADA GU 96913
PHONE: 671-472-0946
W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS)

$$

AYDLETT/GUARD





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