Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

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AXGM70 PGUM 222337
DGTGUM
PMZ181-GUZ001>004-080200-
MAJURO-GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
730 PM CHST WED FEB 21 2018

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS
AND THE MARIANA ISLANDS...

SYNOPSIS...
THE CURRENT LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL
SPRING AND THEN TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS FROM SUMMER
INTO EARLY FALL. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER MOST OF MICRONESIA THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS. MOST
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF 10N THROUGH MARCH OR UNTIL
UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BEGIN TO MIGRATE FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST IN THE TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD
OCCUR AROUND APRIL. THESE WESTWARD MOVING DISTURBANCES ARE NEEDED TO
HELP BRING SPRING AND SUMMER RAINS TO NORTHERN PARTS OF MICRONESIA.

SATELLITE SHOWS VERY DRY WEATHER ALONG AND NORTH OF 9N FROM THE DATE
LINE WESTWARD ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. WEATHER HAS ALSO BEEN DRY
OVER THE MARIANA ISLANDS. FAIRLY NORMAL RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MARSHALL ISLANDS...AND THE REST OF
MICRONESIA HAS HAD SUFFICIENT RAINFALL TO AVERT DROUGHT.

THE EXPERIMENTAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
INDICATES THAT UTIRIK AND WOTJE OF THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS
REMAIN IN SHORT-TERM AND LONG-TERM MODERATE DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 1
OF 4). WOTJE DID RECEIVE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL RECENTLY...AND
KWAJALEIN AND NEARBY ATOLLS ALSO RECEIVED SOME SHOWERS. GUAM...
SAIPAN...TINIAN AND ROTA OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS REMAIN IN SHORT-TERM
MODERATE DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 1 OF 4).

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

MARSHALL ISLANDS...

FAR NORTHERN ISLANDS...
MODERATE DROUGHT PERSISTS AT UTIRIK...WOTJE AND OTHER ATOLLS NORTH
OF KWAJALEIN. A FEW SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS KWAJALEIN AND WOTJE AND
OTHER ATOLLS SOUTH OF 10N WITHIN THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT SATELLITE
IMAGES INDICATE ONLY SPOTTY TRADE-WIND SHOWERS WILL BE PASSING OVER
THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISLANDS ALONG AND
NORTH OF 9N SUCH AS UTIRIK...RONGELAP...BIKINI...AILUK...WOTJE AND
ENEWETAK ATOLLS AND MEJIT ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO SUFFER FROM VERY
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS. MALOELAP...JUST SOUTH
OF 9N...COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITIONS.

OTHER ATOLLS OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...
PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER MAY ALSO AFFECT KWAJALEIN...WOTHO...UJAE...
MALOELAP...WOTJE...LIKIEP AND THE NEIGHBORING ATOLLS. SUFFICIENT
RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED FOR MAJURO...ARNO...NAMU...JALUIT AND
AILINGLAPLAP. THESE LOCATIONS HAVE HAD ADEQUATE MONTHLY RAINFALL TO
AVERT DROUGHT IMPACTS SO FAR.

.GUAM AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS (CNMI)...
DRY WEATHER AND MODERATE DROUGHT IS AFFECTING GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN
AND SAIPAN AND THE ISLANDS FARTHER NORTH. SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS SHOWED ONLY SPOTTY TRADE-WIND SHOWERS PASSING BY
THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

IN PARTICULAR FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN AND ROTA...THE DRAW-DOWN OF WATER
RESOURCES HAS BEEN EARLIER THAN THE SEASONAL NORMAL AND INCREASING
CONSERVATION MEASURES MAY BE NEEDED. VEGETATION AND FOOD SOURCES
COULD SUFFER FROM THE DROUGHT...AND LOCAL WELLS NEAR THE COAST WILL
ALSO BE AT RISK AND COULD BECOME SALTY. THE DANGER FROM WILDFIRES
WILL INCREASE.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
COMPUTER MODELS AND DISCUSSIONS WITH CLIMATE SCIENTISTS INDICATE
THAT THE CURRENT LA NINA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL SPRING AND
THEN MOST CLIMATE MODELS ARE INDICATING A TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL
CONDITIONS. NOTE THAT MAJURO AND KWAJALEIN WERE VERY WET IN JANUARY.

SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS...

                  JAN    NORMAL  % NORMAL  FEB   NORMAL  % NORMAL
                 (1-31)  (1-31)  (1-31)   (1-20) (1-20)   (1-20)

UTIRIK            3.56   2.03    175       0.56   1.07     52
WOTJE             4.37   2.41    181       1.62   1.11    146
KWAJALEIN/EBEYE  14.46   4.01    361       3.94   2.35    168
MAJURO           15.76   8.28    190       6.99   5.44    128
SAIPAN            2.97   3.56     83       1.83   1.86     98
TINIAN            3.94   4.11     96       2.04   2.36     86
ROTA              2.24   5.24     43       1.98   3.72     53
GUAM AP           0.94   4.86     19       2.07   3.23     64

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
A DRY ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN AND REDUCED CLOUD COVER WILL CAUSE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS AND THE
MARIANA ISLANDS. EVAPORATION CAUSED BY PERSISTENT TRADE WINDS
BLOWING ACROSS THE OCEAN SHOULD HELP OFFSET AND MODERATE THE HIGHER
TEMPERATURES.

THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO...
RAINFALL ALONG AND NORTH OF 10 NORTH LATITUDE (ENEWETAK TO UTIRIK)
WILL BE VERY LOW WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
AND ONLY A QUARTER INCH UP TO A HALF INCH FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE VERY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT 2 WEEKS.
RAINFALL WILL BE SLIGHTLY BETTER FARTHER SOUTH AND AREAS FROM NEAR
KWAJALEIN TO WOTJE COULD RECEIVE AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH UP TO ONE
INCH DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...
WEATHER WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY IN THIS AREA. RAINFALL FOR MAJURO AND
MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS WILL BE VARIABLE
IN THE COMING WEEKS. MOST OF THESE ISLANDS SHOULD RECEIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM ONE INCH UP TO TWO INCHES FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

.GUAM AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR GUAM...SAIPAN...TINIAN...ROTA AND THE ISLANDS
FARTHER NORTH WILL BE LOW EVEN BY DRY SEASON STANDARDS. COMPUTER
MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY TRADE-WIND SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE ONLY ABOUT A
QUARTER INCH THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AND UP TO A HALF INCH THROUGH
THE NEXT 10 DAYS AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR ALL THE MARIANA ISLANDS IN THE COMING WEEKS.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE
THURSDAY 8 MARCH 2018 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY
TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL
DISASTER COORDINATION OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT
INFORMATION.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...NWS WFO
GUAM...HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/...UNDER MENU ITEM CURRENT
CONDITIONS...HYDROLOGY...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. THE PACIFIC
ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/

NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING...
CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AREAS WERE MAINLY SOUTH OF 10N FROM 135E
TO ABOUT 165E...INCLUDING PARTS OF PALAU AND THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF
CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES. FOR INFORMATION SEE NOAA/NESDIS
WEBSITE AT HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE
PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH
INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY
OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES
AT MAJURO AND AT WENO CHUUK...THE USAID SUBREGIONAL OFFICES...THE
NOAA/NESDIS CORAL REEF WATCH PROGRAM AND RICHARD HEIM AT THE NOAA
NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...
WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-
0946 W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS)

SIMPSON/LANDER

$$


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