Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

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AXGM70 PGUM 190120
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KOROR PALAU-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1145 AM CHST THU JUN 18 2015

...RECENT RAINFALL WILL HELP THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU GET THROUGH THE
COMING WEEKS OF DRIER WEATHER...

SYNOPSIS...
THE EXPERIMENTAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENTS OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
INDICATE THAT THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU MAY BE ENTERING A PERIOD OF
SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS (DROUGHT LEVEL 2 OF 4 LEVELS). IN ADDITION
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN EL NINO ADVISORY
INDICATING THAT AN EL NINO EVENT IS NOW OCCURRING. CLIMATE MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS EL NINO PATTERN WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF 2015 AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY 2016.

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT ARE TYPICAL FOR AN EL NINO PATTERN WILL
CAUSE INCREASINGLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS FAR WESTERN MICRONESIA.
PERIODS OF LIGHT WINDS AND LOW ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE COMING MONTHS WILL CAUSE DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR MANY
ISLANDS OF THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU...SUCH AS KOROR...SONSOROL AND
KAYANGEL. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BECOME SPOTTY. THERE MAY BE A
FEW WET WEEKS DURING JUNE AND JULY...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY AS THE YEAR PROGRESSES. WE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF THE
SEVERITY OF THE DROUGHT BY LATE JULY.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FOR KOROR AND OTHER ISLANDS OF THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU...

KOROR AND BABELDAOB...
RAINFALL DURING MAY WAS VERY LOW...AND RAINFALL WILL BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE IN THE COMING TWO MONTHS. DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FURTHER AS THE YEAR PROGRESSES. WATER SUPPLIES WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED AND WATER CONSERVATION IS ENCOURAGED. GRASS
FIRES...ESPECIALLY ON BABELDAOB...WILL INCREASE WITH THE DRYNESS.
SOME YELLOWING OF VEGETATION ON THE ROCK ISLANDS COULD OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS.

OUTLYING ISLANDS OF PALAU...
RAINFALL WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE IN THE COMING MONTHS AND DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WORSE...ESPECIALLY FOR SONSOROL.
THE WEATHER WILL BECOME VERY DRY WITH RAINFALL SPOTTY AT BEST. WATER
SUPPLIES WILL BE AT RISK AND CONSERVATION MEASURES ARE NEEDED TO
AVOID DEPLETION OF WELLS AND CATCHMENTS. WELLS SHOULD BE MONITORED
FOR EXCESSIVE SALINITY.

SOME DAMAGE TO FOOD CROPS IS LIKELY ON SMALLER ISLANDS AND ATOLLS OF
PALAU WHERE RAINFALL IS SPARSE. THE HEALTH OF FOOD CROPS SHOULD BE
CLOSELY MONITORED...AND FOOD ASSISTANCE COULD BECOME AN ISSUE IF
DAMAGES TO PLANTS AND FRUITS ARE IRREVERSIBLE. WATER CATCHMENTS
SHOULD BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY IN THE COMING WEEKS AND MONTHS.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
THIS EL NINO PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUMMER MONTHS
INTO THE MONTHS OF AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER AT LEAST...AND THIS EL NINO
EVENT COULD YET BECOME EVEN STRONGER.

BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
YEAR. THERE COULD BE A SLIGHTLY WET MONTH OR TWO FROM NOW THROUGH
THE SUMMER...BUT OVER ALL CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY AS THE YEAR
PROGRESSES.

SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS...

                 MAR    APR    MAY    MAY NORMAL  JUNE 1-17

KOROR            5.11   5.42   3.96        11.79       5.52
PALAU AIRPORT    4.17   5.71   4.47        11.27       9.37
PELELIU                        3.47        12.00      10.97

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

A DRY ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN WILL CAUSE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF WESTERN MICRONESIA.

THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU...

KOROR...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR KOROR DURING
THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND 3 TO 6 INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE PREPARED AND MAINTAINED BECAUSE
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN JULY.

OUTLYING ISLANDS AND ATOLLS OF PALAU...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR MOST ISLANDS
OF PALAU DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND 3 TO 5 INCHES THROUGH
THE NEXT 10 DAYS. CONSERVATION MEASURES ARE STILL APPROPRIATE
BECAUSE MUCH DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN JULY.

OTHER IMPACTS...
THE JUNE 15 2015 CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AREA REMAINS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. INTERESTED PEOPLE SHOULD MONITOR THE NOAA
CORAL REEF WATCH WEBSITE FOR BLEACHING ALERTS AND WARNINGS AT:
HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML (LOWER CASE).

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
NEXT ISSUANCE OF THE DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE THURSDAY
JULY 2 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED TO LOCAL
MEDIA OUTLETS...YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL
DISASTER COORDINATING OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT
INFORMATION.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...

NWS WFO GUAM...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GUAM/ /UNDER MENU ITEM CLIMATE...MORE/

PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.SOEST.HAWAII.EDU/MET/ENSO/INDEX2.HTML

NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING...
HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE
PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH
INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY
OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT
MAJURO...AND THE USAID SUBREGIONAL OFFICE MAJURO.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...

WFO TIYAN GUAM
3232 HUENEME RD
BARRIGADA GU 96913
PHONE: 671-472-0946
W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS)

$$

SIMPSON/GUARD


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