Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FGUS73 KEAX 162006
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101-115-117-121-147-159-165-171-177-195-197-KSC005-091-103-170000-

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
206 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

...2017 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1...

This Spring Flood Outlook is for the Kansas City/Pleasant Hill
Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) which includes the Kansas River,
Missouri River, and their tributaries, in northeast Kansas and
northern Missouri.

...There is a normal to slightly below normal probability of
flooding during the next three months...

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  02/18/2017  - 05/19/2017

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Delaware River
Muscotah            27.0   28.0   36.0 :  18   26   17   19   <5   <5
:Stranger Creek
Easton              17.0   18.0   23.0 :  71   79   62   72   <5   <5
Tonganoxie          23.0   30.0   35.0 :  34   45   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Kansas River
De Soto             26.0   33.0   36.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Tarkio River
Fairfax             17.0   18.0   25.0 :  56   51   54   48   40   35
:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti   23.0   28.0   35.0 :  10   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
:102 River
Maryville           18.0   23.0   28.0 :  28   33    5    5   <5   <5
Rosendale           18.0   18.1   23.0 :  56   52   55   49   <5   <5
:Platte River
Agency              20.0   25.0   30.0 :  69   68   50   49   <5   <5
:Little Platte River
Smithville          27.0   30.5   35.0 :   8    8   <5    5   <5   <5
:Platte River
Sharps Station      26.0   29.0   33.0 :  67   67   43   50   <5   <5
Platte City         20.0   25.0   29.0 :  67   67   16   24   <5   <5
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev   35.0   39.0   48.0 :   8   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
Bannister Road      34.0   40.0   42.0 :  <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
71 Highway          61.0   66.0   68.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
63rd Street         48.0   53.0   55.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Colorado Avenue     56.0   61.0   67.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Stadium Drive       33.0   39.0   43.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
40 Highway          30.0   35.0   40.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
17th Street         24.0   25.0   27.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
12th Street         30.0   35.0   40.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Little Blue River
Lake City           18.0   25.0   27.0 :  17   24   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Crooked River
Richmond            20.0   21.0   29.0 :  33   58   27   54   <5   <5
:Wakenda Creek
Carrollton          16.0   19.0   21.0 :  42   65   27   44    9   16
:Blackwater River
Valley City         22.0   25.0   31.0 :  53   74   42   56   21   26
Blue Lick           24.0   29.0   37.0 :  67   90   31   57   <5   <5
:Lamine River
Otterville          15.0   18.0   26.0 :  41   66   35   51    5    7
:Moniteau Creek
Fayette             16.0   21.0   25.0 :  49   58   17   22   <5   <5
:Petite Saline Creek
Boonville           16.0   19.5   26.0 :  47   68   33   45   <5   <5
:Thompson River
Trenton             30.0   33.0   37.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Grand River
Pattonsburg         25.0   30.0   32.0 :  34   38   13   28    6   17
Gallatin            26.0   33.0   39.0 :  20   36   <5   <5   <5   <5
Chillicothe         24.0   28.0   35.0 :  56   71   39   57   <5   <5
Sumner              26.0   28.0   40.0 :  76   81   71   79   <5   <5
:Chariton River
Novinger            20.0   23.0   26.0 :  <5   22   <5   12   <5   <5
Prairie Hill        15.0   19.0   21.0 :  61   66   19   30    6   11
:South Grand River
Urich               24.0   26.0   33.0 :  66   74   54   62   <5   <5
:Big Creek
Blairstown          20.0   23.0   36.0 :  83   87   66   70   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/18/2017  - 05/19/2017
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Delaware River
Muscotah              4.5    8.7   14.1   18.2   24.4   29.3   30.2
:Stranger Creek
Easton                6.9   11.3   16.0   18.6   20.1   20.7   21.2
Tonganoxie            6.1   10.6   15.6   20.3   24.5   25.2   25.6
:Kansas River
De Soto               9.7   10.7   12.4   15.7   17.6   22.2   22.7
:Tarkio River
Fairfax               7.1    8.4   12.4   20.4   27.0   27.7   28.1
:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti     5.0    8.2   10.9   13.8   18.2   22.9   24.2
:102 River
Maryville             6.5   10.7   12.8   15.6   18.9   21.1   23.3
Rosendale             3.2   10.2   15.2   18.2   19.6   21.1   22.2
:Platte River
Agency                8.6   12.8   18.8   25.0   27.2   28.1   28.2
:Little Platte River
Smithville           13.8   15.2   16.0   17.9   19.9   25.9   29.6
:Platte River
Sharps Station       11.5   15.3   24.3   27.8   30.3   30.9   31.4
Platte City           7.5   10.8   18.8   21.2   24.4   25.4   26.2
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev    26.1   26.3   26.5   27.8   30.4   34.2   38.4
Bannister Road        8.4    8.7   11.1   16.7   22.3   27.7   33.1
71 Highway           36.1   36.4   38.9   42.8   47.1   51.0   54.3
63rd Street          25.4   25.5   26.4   28.9   32.4   38.2   43.1
Colorado Avenue      35.3   36.2   38.2   41.6   44.6   47.1   52.1
Stadium Drive         9.2   10.2   12.8   17.3   22.3   25.1   31.8
40 Highway            4.8    5.6    7.2   10.6   15.3   17.7   23.4
17th Street           2.3    2.8    3.9    7.0   11.8   14.2   19.2
12th Street           7.6    9.2   12.2   15.8   19.9   22.2   27.4
:Little Blue River
Lake City             5.0    5.3    6.0   10.0   16.1   19.8   22.2
:Crooked River
Richmond              6.4    7.2   11.3   17.8   21.3   24.8   25.8
:Thompson River
Trenton              10.5   12.7   16.6   21.2   24.6   27.4   28.9
:Grand River
Pattonsburg           2.3    3.3   10.2   17.0   28.0   30.8   32.3
Gallatin              3.0    3.9   10.6   17.4   25.6   27.7   28.9
Chillicothe           3.9    8.3   19.1   24.9   30.0   32.5   33.4
Sumner               10.9   13.5   26.2   32.2   33.8   35.3   36.1
:Chariton River
Novinger             -0.0    2.7    9.7   14.0   16.8   21.2   24.1
Prairie Hill          3.1    5.8   12.4   16.3   18.4   20.3   21.4
:South Grand River
Urich                15.3   17.1   21.6   26.4   28.3   28.7   29.0
:Big Creek
Blairstown           17.5   18.3   21.8   24.4   26.3   29.5   32.2

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/18/2017  - 05/19/2017
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Delaware River
Muscotah              2.2    2.1    2.1    2.0    2.0    1.9    1.8
:Stranger Creek
Easton                2.4    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.2    2.2
Tonganoxie            2.3    2.3    2.2    2.1    2.1    2.0    2.0
:Kansas River
De Soto               4.1    4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0    3.9
:Tarkio River
Fairfax               5.9    5.9    5.9    5.9    5.8    5.8    5.8
:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti     4.8    4.7    4.6    4.2    4.0    3.9    3.8
:102 River
Maryville             6.3    6.3    6.2    6.2    6.2    6.1    6.1
Rosendale             2.6    2.6    2.5    2.4    2.3    2.2    2.2
:Platte River
Agency                5.9    5.8    5.7    5.5    5.4    5.2    5.2
:Little Platte River
Smithville           12.3   12.3   12.3   12.2   12.1   12.1   12.1
:Platte River
Sharps Station        4.6    4.5    4.3    4.1    4.0    3.8    3.8
Platte City          -1.7   -1.8   -2.0   -2.3   -2.5   -2.6   -2.6
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev    24.8   24.8   24.8   24.8   24.8   24.8   24.8
Bannister Road        4.2    4.2    4.2    4.2    4.2    4.2    4.2
71 Highway           32.9   32.9   32.9   32.9   32.9   32.9   32.9
63rd Street          22.0   22.0   22.0   22.0   21.9   21.9   21.9
Colorado Avenue      28.5   28.5   28.4   28.3   28.3   28.2   28.1
Stadium Drive         5.3    5.3    5.3    5.3    5.3    5.3    5.3
40 Highway           -1.4   -1.4   -1.5   -1.5   -1.5   -1.5   -1.5
17th Street          -1.3   -1.3   -1.4   -1.4   -1.4   -1.4   -1.4
12th Street           2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0
:Little Blue River
Lake City             4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5
:Crooked River
Richmond              6.0    6.0    6.0    6.0    6.0    4.9    4.9
:Thompson River
Trenton              10.2   10.2   10.2   10.1   10.1   10.1   10.0
:Grand River
Pattonsburg           2.2    2.2    2.0    1.8    1.7    1.5    1.5
Gallatin              2.9    2.8    2.6    2.4    2.3    2.1    2.1
Chillicothe           3.7    3.5    3.4    3.0    3.0    2.8    2.7
Sumner                7.3    7.3    7.0    6.6    6.4    6.1    6.0
:Chariton River
Novinger             -0.4   -0.4   -0.4   -0.5   -0.5   -0.6   -0.7
Prairie Hill          1.4    1.4    1.4    1.4    1.4    1.3    1.3
:South Grand River
Urich                 6.4    6.4    6.4    6.4    6.4    6.4    6.4
:Big Creek
Blairstown            9.0    9.0    8.8    8.7    8.5    8.3    8.2

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.

Outlook:

For the period mid-February to mid-May, the probability of flooding
is normal to slightly below normal along the majority of area
streams and rivers. Locations which commonly experience minor spring
flooding will still likely experience similar conditions sometime
during the next three months. This includes the typical locations
along the Missouri River. In addition, the following basins have a
greater than 50 percent probability of minor flooding: Stranger,
Tarkio, Lower 102, Platte, Lower Grand, Lower Chariton, Blackwater,
South Grand, and Big.

Recent Conditions:

Mean temperatures for the past 30 days were 6 to 10 degrees above
normal. Values ranged from the lower 30s across far northern
Missouri to around 40 over east-central Kansas and west-central
Missouri.

Dry conditions were common across the region during the past 30 days
as much of northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri reported less
than a quarter inch of liquid precipitation. Locations southeast of
the Interstate 35 corridor generally received between a half and one
inch. Percent of normal precipitation values ranged from 25 to 75
percent.

Present Conditions:

Below normal precipitation and warm temperatures have resulted in
dry soils across the region. Locations along and southeast of a St.
Joseph to Bethany line have abnormally dry conditions as defined by
the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. A small area of moderate drought
has developed across central Missouri, affecting areas along and
east of a Fayette to Macon line.

The latest daily streamflow data from the USGS reports near normal
conditions for much northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri. There
is little if any snow cover affecting the Lower Missouri Basin.
Across the Upper Missouri Basin, mountain snowpack is currently
running near to slightly above normal.

Future Conditions:

Across the majority of the Missouri Basin, the 6 to 14 day outlook
indicates a weather pattern strongly favoring above normal
temperatures with a slightly increased probability of above normal
precipitation.

For the March period, the one month outlook shows an increased
probability of below normal temperatures and above normal
precipitation across the Upper Missouri Basin. Equal chances of
above, below, or normal temperatures and precipitation are found
across the lower portion of the Missouri Basin.

The outlook for the period March through May indicates equal chances
of above, below, or normal temperatures across the Upper Missouri
Basin. For the Lower Missouri Basin, the outlook shows an increased
probability of above normal temperatures. As for the precipitation
outlook, there is an equal chance of above, below, or normal
conditions across Kansas and Missouri. An increased probability of
above normal precipitation exists across the northern Rockies and
Dakotas.

The next Spring Flood Outlook will be issued March 2, 2017.

Visit our web site weather.gov/kc for more weather and water
information.

$$

SAW


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