Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FGUS75 KGJT 092116
ESFGJT
COC007-029-033-037-045-051-053-067-077-081-083-085-091-097-103-
107-111-113-UTC009-019-037-047-281915-

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
315 PM MST WED APR 9 2014

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN COLORADO
AND EASTERN UTAH NUMBER 3...

THIS 2014 SPRING RUNOFF OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH COVERING ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE YAMPA/WHITE...UPPER
COLORADO...DUCHESNE...GREEN...GUNNISON...DOLORES AND SAN JUAN RIVER
BASINS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING 2014 FLOODING DUE TO SNOWMELT IS HIGHER
THAN USUAL FOR THE YAMPA...LITTLE SNAKE...UPPER GREEN...UPPER
COLORADO...EAGLE...ROARING FORK...AND GUNNISON RIVER BASINS. THESE
RIVER BASINS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY DURING THE SPRING
RUNOFF.

THE YAMPA RIVER...EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE PEAK FLOWS ALONG THE WHOLE
RIVER FROM HEAD WATERS TO THE CONFLUENCE WITH THE GREEN RIVER.
TRIBUTARIES LIKE THE ELK RIVER ARE ALSO FORECAST TO HAVE ABOVE
AVERAGE PEAK FLOW AND A HIGHER THAN NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. A
NUMBER OF SITES IN THE YAMPA BASIN HAVE A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
REACHING OR EXCEEDING FLOOD FLOW. PLEASE SEE THE TABLE BELOW FOR
MEAN DAILY PEAK FLOW FORECAST FOR A FEW SITES ACROSS THE REGION.

UPPER COLORADO AND GUNNISON RIVERS...THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY FOR PEAK FLOW AT OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE ALONG
THE EAGLE AND COLORADO RIVERS FROM EAGLE...NEAR DOTSERO THROUGH
GRAND JUNCTION. ON THE UPPER PART OF THE GUNNISON BASIN INCLUDING
THE EAST AND TAYLOR RIVERS EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE PEAK FLOWS PRODUCING
ELEVATED FLOOD POTENTIAL.

FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE DUCHESNE...SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...AND
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO BASINS ARE NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME. NEAR AVERAGE
PEAK FLOWS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DOLORES RIVER WITH BELOW AVERAGE
PEAKS FORECAST FOR THE SAN JUAN AND DUCHESNE RIVERS.

THE APRIL FIRST VOLUME FORECASTS FOR THE APRIL THROUGH JULY 2014
RUNOFF PERIOD ARE ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL BASINS OF WESTERN COLORADO AND ALSO THE UPPER GREEN RIVER
BASIN. THE SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH BASINS ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE.

SPRING TEMPERATURES AFFECT THE PATTERN OF SNOWMELT RUNOFF AND
CONSEQUENTLY THE MAGNITUDE OF PEAK FLOWS. IN NORMAL
YEARS...ADDITIONAL SNOWPACK CAN ACCUMULATE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
APRIL. HEAVY RAINFALL OR UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE
SNOW MELT SEASON CAN AFFECT TOTAL RUNOFF VOLUME AND INCREASE THE
FLOOD THREAT.


OBSERVED PRECIPITATION
----------------------

THE NORTHERN PART OF WESTERN COLORADO HAD ABOVE AVERAGE TO NEAR
AVERAGE MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR MARCH. THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN BASINS OF WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH HAD BELOW
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH. SNOWPACK IN THE NORTHERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO CONTINUES TO BE MUCH
ABOVE AVERAGE. THIS INCLUDES THE YAMPA...UPPER COLORADO...AND
NORTHERN PART OF THE GUNNISON BASINS.

THE 2014 WATER YEAR STARTED WITH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BASINS
RECEIVING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR OCTOBER. BY NOVEMBER THE
NORTHERN BASINS RECEIVED LESS PRECIPITATION THAN NORMAL AND THE
SOUTHERN BASINS HAD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH. THIS
TREND DID NOT LAST WITH THE SOUTHERN BASINS OF WESTERN COLORADO AND
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH RECEIVED MUCH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION THE REST
OF THE YEAR THROUGH MID FEBRUARY. THE NORTHERN BASINS OF WESTERN
COLORADO IN EARLY DECEMBER RECEIVED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THE
PATTERN REMAINED ON THE DRY SIDE EARLY JANUARY UNTIL THE LAST FEW
DAYS WHEN A STORM VERY WET SYSTEM MOVED OVER NORTHWESTERN COLORADO.

OVER ALL SO FAR FOR THE WATER YEAR 2014 THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
BASINS OF WESTERN COLORADO ARE ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AND SNOWPACK. THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN NOW HAS A
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWPACK. THE SOUTHERN BASINS OF WESTERN COLORADO
AND EASTERN UTAH ARE NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL.

BASIN SNOWPACK CONDITIONS...PERCENT OF MEDIAN...FOR THE PERIOD
OCTOBER 1 2013 TO APRIL 8 2014:
----------------------------------
IN WESTERN COLORADO...

BASIN                   SNOW WATER
                        EQUIVALENT
-----                   ----------
YAMPA/WHITE                125
UPPER COLORADO HDWRS       131
ROARING FORK               127
GUNNISON                   107
DOLORES/SAN MIGUEL          89
SAN JUAN                    77
ANIMAS                      90

IN EASTERN UTAH...

BASIN                   SNOW WATER
                        EQUIVALENT
-----                   ----------
GREEN                      142
DUCHESNE                    94
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH           41
----------------------------------


MEAN DAILY PEAK FLOW FORECASTS IN CFS
ISSUED 4/1/2014

LOCATION                   FLOOD  FORECAST FLOWS
                            FLOW     90%    75%    50%    25%    10%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
YAMPA - STEAMBOAT SPRINGS   5930    3500   4000   4500   5000   6000
ELK - MILNER, NR            5749    3500   4000   5000   5500   6500
YAMPA - MAYBELL, NR        21200    9500  10500  11500  12500  15500
LITTLE SNAKE - LILY, NR             4000   4500   5500   6000   7000
YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK             13500  15500  16500  17500  22000
WHITE - MEEKER, NR          7700    2000   2500   3000   3500   4000
SNAKE - MONTEZUMA, NR       2080     500    550    650    700    850
STRAIGHT CK - LASKEY GULC    410     120    140    170    180    220
EAGLE - GYPSUM, BLO         6530    3200   3600   4400   5200   6800
COLORADO - DOTSERO, NR     17000    8900   9500  11500  14500  20000
CRYSTAL - REDSTONE, NR, A   3470    1500   1700   2100   2400   2800
ROARING FORK - GLENWOOD S  17100    5000   5500   6300   7700   9100
COLORADO - CAMEO, NR       26000   15000  17000  20000  24000  33000
EAST - ALMONT               3170    1900   2200   2500   2800   3300
NF GUNNISON - SOMERSET, N  14280    2600   3100   3700   4000   4800
SURFACE CK - CEDAREDGE      1360     120    160    220    290    340
GUNNISON - GRAND JUNCTION  19520    8000   9500  11000  13500  15000
COLORADO - CO-UT STATE LI  46200   22000  25000  31000  38000  50000
DOLORES - DOLORES           7770    2100   2400   2800   3200   3600
SAN MIGUEL - PLACERVILLE,   2990     950   1100   1230   1400   1600
SAN JUAN - PAGOSA SPRINGS   5000    1400   1600   1800   2000   2300
ANIMAS - DURANGO            9560    3200   3600   4500   4900   5300
MANCOS - MANCOS, NR         2850     150    180    220    270    360

----------------------------------------------------

RESERVOIR STORAGE (KAF) AS OF MARCH 31:
                            C U R R E N T   Y R     1981-2010
                          EOM      % OF     % OF    MAR 31        USABLE
                          STORAGE  AVERAGE  CAPACITYAVG STORAGE   CAPACITY
   COLORADO - LAKE GRANB|    293.8|     93|     60||      314.3|     490.3|
   WILLOW CK - WILLOW CK|      9.8|    120|    108||        8.2|       9.1|
   WILLIAMS FORK - WILLI|     77.4|    127|     80||       60.8|      96.9|
   MUDDY CK - WOLFORD MO|     42.9|     98|     65||       43.7|      66.0|
   BLUE - DILLON RES    |    222.7|    103|     88||      215.5|     254.0|
   BLUE - GREEN MTN RES |     60.8|     92|     41||       65.9|     146.9|
   HOMESTAKE CK - HOMEST|      0.1|      1|      0||       25.1|      43.0|
   FRYING PAN - RUEDI RE|     66.6|    105|     65||       63.2|     102.0|
   PLATEAU CK - VEGA RES|     17.3|    122|     53||       14.2|      32.9|
   TAYLOR - TAYLOR PARK |     71.0|    114|     67||       62.4|     106.2|
   GUNNISON - BLUE MESA |    407.7|     90|     49||      454.9|     829.5|
   GUNNISON - MORROW POI|    106.6|     95|     91||      111.7|     117.0|
   GUNNISON - CRYSTAL RE|     14.6|     90|     83||       16.2|      17.5|
   MUDDY CK - PAONIA RES|      0.5|     17|      3||        3.1|      16.7|
   UNCOMPAHGRE - RIDGWAY|     74.0|    106|     89||       70.0|      83.0|
   DOLORES - MCPHEE RES |    193.3|     68|     51||      285.4|     381.1|
   LOS PINOS - VALLECITO|     94.4|    149|     75||       63.2|     125.4|
   SAN JUAN - NAVAJO RES|    996.1|     76|     59||     1310.4|    1696.0|
   FLORIDA - LEMON RES, |     17.9|     82|     45||       21.7|      39.8|
   COLORADO - LAKE POWEL|   9497.3|     56|     39||    16941.7|   24322.0|

----------------------------------------------------


SNOWMELT SEASON STREAMFLOW FORECASTS AS OF APRIL 1 2014 FOR THE
PERIOD APRIL TO JULY 2014 UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED

STREAMFLOW FORECASTS:
DEVELOPED:                    APR 1 2014

YAMPA/WHITE BASINS
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
YAMPA RIVER
  STAGECOACH RSVR, ABV            APR-JUL     28   122     42     21     23
  STEAMBOAT SPRINGS               APR-JUL    360   138    440    295    260
ELK RIVER
  MILNER, NR                      APR-JUL    440   138    525    360    320
ELKHEAD CK
  LONG GULCH, ABV, HAYDEN, NR     APR-JUL     95   130    118     70     73
YAMPA RIVER
  MAYBELL, NR                     APR-JUL   1200   128   1450    940    935
LITTLE SNAKE RIVER
  SLATER, NR                      APR-JUL    196   126    245    150    156
  SAVERY, NR                      APR-JUL    390   113    515    290    345
  LILY, NR                        APR-JUL    415   120    560    300    345
YAMPA RIVER
  DEERLODGE PARK                  APR-JUL   1550   125   1930   1180   1240
WHITE RIVER
  MEEKER, NR                      APR-JUL    260    93    320    205    280
  WATSON, NR                      APR-JUL    270    96    340    210    280

UPPER COLORADO, ABOVE GUNNISON BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  LAKE GRANBY, GRANBY, NR         APR-JUL    310   141    385    250    220
WILLOW CK
  WILLOW CK RES, GRANBY, NR       APR-JUL     59   126     83     38     47
FRASER RIVER
  WINTER PARK                     APR-JUL     28   144     34     23   19.4
WILLIAMS FORK RIVER
  WILLIAMS FORK RES, PARSHALL, N  APR-JUL    135   141    162    112     96
BLUE RIVER
  DILLON RES                      APR-JUL    250   153    295    205    163
  GREEN MTN RES                   APR-JUL    405   147    490    330    275
MUDDY CK
  WOLFORD MOUNTAIN RESERVOIR      APR-JUL     90   167    114     65     54
COLORADO RIVER
  KREMMLING, NR                   APR-JUL   1260   147   1550   1050    860
EAGLE RIVER
  GYPSUM, BLO                     APR-JUL    400   119    525    300    335
COLORADO RIVER
  DOTSERO, NR                     APR-JUL   1920   137   2400   1560   1400
FRYING PAN RIVER
  RUEDI RES, BASALT, NR           APR-JUL    160   115    210    125    139
ROARING FORK RIVER
  GLENWOOD SPRINGS                APR-JUL    760   110    945    585    690
COLORADO RIVER
  GLENWOOD SPRINGS, BLO           APR-JUL   2680   127   3400   2220   2110
  CAMEO, NR                       APR-JUL   2870   122   3680   2300   2360
PLATEAU CK
  CAMEO, NR                       APR-JUL    105    85    158     57    124

GUNNISON BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
TAYLOR RIVER
  TAYLOR PARK RES                 APR-JUL    120   121    146    100     99
  ALMONT                          APR-JUL    195   126    245    158    155
EAST RIVER
  ALMONT                          APR-JUL    215   118    265    180    182
GUNNISON RIVER
  GUNNISON, NR                    APR-JUL    465   126    585    390    370
TOMICHI CK
  GUNNISON                        APR-JUL     92   124    130     70     74
LAKE FORK RIVER
  GATEVIEW                        APR-JUL    133   108    170    105    123
GUNNISON RIVER
  BLUE MESA RES                   APR-JUL    850   126   1120    690    675
  MORROW POINT RES                APR-JUL    930   126   1200    770    740
  CRYSTAL RES                     APR-JUL   1050   126   1320    890    835
MUDDY CK
  PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR         MAR-JUN     96   100    130     62     96
  PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR         APR-JUN     96   105    130     62     91
  PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR         APR-JUL    101   104    134     66     97
NF GUNNISON RIVER
  SOMERSET, NR                    APR-JUL    300   102    385    235    295
SURFACE CK
  CEDAREDGE                       APR-JUL   15.5    92     21   11.5   16.8
UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER
  RIDGWAY RES                     APR-JUL     91    90    123     70    101
  COLONA                          APR-JUL    119    87    174     90    137
  DELTA                           APR-JUL     94    83    155     68    113
GUNNISON RIVER
  GRAND JUNCTION, NR              APR-JUL   1640   111   2150   1200   1480

DOLORES BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
DOLORES RIVER
  DOLORES                         APR-JUL    235    96    320    190    245
  MCPHEE RES                      APR-JUL    250    85    350    200    295
SAN MIGUEL RIVER
  PLACERVILLE, NR                 APR-JUL    130   102    170    105    128
DOLORES RIVER
  CISCO, NR                       APR-JUL    480    85    650    350    565

UPPER COLORADO, CONFLUENCE
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  CISCO, NR                       APR-JUL   5050   114   6680   4100   4440

SAN JUAN BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
SAN JUAN RIVER
  PAGOSA SPRINGS                  APR-JUL    147    68    180    110    215
  CARRACAS, NR                    APR-JUL    255    67    320    190    380
RIO BLANCO RIVER
  PAGOSA SPRINGS, NR, BLANCO DAM  APR-JUL     37    69     48     25     54
NAVAJO RIVER
  CHROMO, NR, OSO DIV DAM, BLO    APR-JUL     40    62     55     30     65
PIEDRA RIVER
  ARBOLES, NR                     APR-JUL    155    74    205    115    210
LOS PINOS RIVER
  VALLECITO RES, BAYFIELD, NR     APR-JUL    175    90    230    126    194
SAN JUAN RIVER
  NAVAJO RES, ARCHULETA, NR       APR-JUL    510    69    660    370    735
FLORIDA RIVER
  LEMON RES, DURANGO, NR          APR-JUL     45    82     68     29     55
ANIMAS RIVER
  DURANGO                         APR-JUL    400    96    520    320    415
SAN JUAN RIVER
  FARMINGTON                      APR-JUL    850    77   1150    600   1100
LA PLATA RIVER
  HESPERUS                        APR-JUL   15.0    65     21    9.5     23
SAN JUAN RIVER
  BLUFF, NR                       APR-JUL    830    75   1100    600   1100
MANCOS RIVER
  MANCOS, NR                      APR-JUL   18.0    58     25   11.0     31

EASTERN UTAH - GREEN RIVER BASIN

GREEN RIVER
  FLAMING GORGE RES, FLAMING GOR  APR-JUL   1400   143   1820   1050    980
WHITE RIVER
  WATSON, NR                      APR-JUL    270    96    340    210    280
BIG BRUSH CK
  VERNAL, NR, RED FLEET RES, ABV  APR-JUL   13.0    62     20    7.5     21
ASHLEY CK
  VERNAL, NR                      APR-JUL     27    54     45   17.5     50
WHITEROCKS RIVER
  WHITEROCKS, NR                  APR-JUL     30    56     50     21     54
UINTA RIVER
  NEOLA, NR                       APR-JUL     58    78     80     38     74
DUCHESNE RIVER
  RANDLETT, NR                    APR-JUL    265    69    335    185    385

LAKE POWELL
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  LAKE POWELL, GLEN CYN DAM, AT   APR-JUL   7850   110  10300   5800   7160

MP    MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN 1000 ACRE-FEET.
MP%   MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN PERCENT OF THE 1981-2010 AVERAGE.
RMAX  VOLUME THAT HAS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
RMIN  VOLUME THAT HAS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
AVG   AVERAGE VOLUME FOR THE 1981-2010 PERIOD.

ALL FORECAST VOLUMES REFLECT NATURAL FLOW.  ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.

OFFICIAL VOLUME FORECASTS WILL BE UPDATED AT THE BEGINNING OF MAY.

CLIMATE OUTLOOK:
---------------

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK FOR THE THREE MONTH PERIOD
FROM APRIL THROUGH JUNE INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF EITHER ABOVE OR
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECAILLY OVER THE SOUTHERN BASINS. CURRENTLY
THE ENSO IS NEUTRAL AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEUTRAL THROUGH
SPRING. THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO KNOWN CORRELATION BETWEEN A NEUTRAL
PATTERN AND WEATHER TRENDS OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT SNOW ACCUMULATION AND CONDITIONS COULD
CHANGE BEFORE THE RUNOFF BEGINS.

CHANGING HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS. ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED
AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WEATHER.GOV/GJT.
FOR DETAILED PEAK FLOW FORECASTS VISIT
WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCT/PEAK/PEAK.CGI

DATA FROM THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE...THE COLORADO
BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER...AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
WERE USED TO PRODUCE THIS PRODUCT.

$$

AS



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