Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FGUS71 KGYX 042012
ESFGYX
MEC001-005-007-011-013-015-017-023-025-027-031-NHC001-003-005-007-
009-011-013-015-017-019-062015-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
312 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE
IS WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS
IS BELOW NORMAL.

THIS IS THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF REGULARLY SCHEDULED FLOOD
POTENTIAL OUTLOOKS THAT ARE ISSUED DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING
SEASONS. THESE OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS UNTIL THE
END OF THE SNOW MELT SEASON... AND WILL ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING BASED A NUMBER OF FACTORS.

...CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE...

VERY WARM CONDITIONS HAVE EXISTED SINCE DECEMBER. DEPARTURES FROM
NORMAL FOR DECEMBER AND JANUARY RANGED FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING A CHANGE TO MORE
WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 2 WEEKS WITH PRECIPITATION
IN THAT PERIOD BEING MOSTLY IN THE FROZEN FORM.

THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 6 TO 10 DAY AND 8 TO 14 DAY
OUTLOOK INDICATE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT...

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...

SNOW DEPTH IN NEW HAMPSHIRE RANGES FROM LITTLE IF ANY WITHIN 20
MILES OF THE COAST TO UP TO 6 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NORTH
TO THE CANADIAN BORDER SNOW DEPTH INCREASES TO 6 TO 12 INCHES
WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. MOOSE FALLS IN
FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE REPORT 14 INCHES OF SNOW YESTERDAY.
SNOW DEPTH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS SOUTH OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS IS
GENERALLY LESS 1 INCH. FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MOOSE FALLS HAD JUST 4 INCHES OF WATER IN
THE SNOWPACK. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
TIME OF YEAR.

...WESTERN MAINE...

MOST LOCATIONS WITHIN 30 OR SO MILES OF THE COAST ARE JUST
REPORTING PATCHY SNOW WITH JUST 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE
GROUND IN SOME AREAS. SNOW DEPTH IN THE FOOTHILLS RANGE FROM 3 TO
9 INCHES AND FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE CANADIAN BORDER SNOW DEPTH
RANGES FROM 8 TO 12 INCHES. SNOW DEPTH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE TIME OF YEAR.

WATER EQUIVALENT SOUTH OF THE FOOTHILLS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1
INCH. FROM THE FOOTHILLS TO THE CANADIAN BORDER WATER EQUIVALENT
RANGES FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT IS MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

...SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS...

SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY MAPS INDICATE NEAR NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE IN
WESTERN MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE
IS SHOWING BELOW NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX IS INDICATING ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE FOR COASTAL AND CENTRAL MAINE AND NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AND ALL OF NEW HAMPSHIRE.

RESERVOIRS IN THE KENNEBEC RIVER BASIN ARE ALL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE TIME OF YEAR. RESERVOIRS IN THE ANDROSCOGGIN RIVER BASIN ARE
66.8 PERCENT FULL WHICH IS 16.8 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL.

GROUNDWATER LEVELS COURTESY OF THE USGS ARE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
IN WESTERN MAINE AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL IN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

WATER SUPPLY SHORTAGES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

RECENT RAIN AND MELTING SNOW HAVE INCREASED RIVER FLOWS TO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

RIVERS IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMSPHIRE AND SOUTHERN MAINE ARE MOSLTY ICE
FREE WHICH IS NOT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ICE IS GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS WHERE ICE IS 6 TO 9 INCHES THICK.
HOWEVER EVEN THERE THE ICE IS SOMEWHAT PATCHY AND NOT CONTINUOUS.
ICE THICKNESS IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. A RETURN
TO COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ICE COVER AND THICKNESS OVER
THE NEXT 2 WEEKS.

...IN CONCLUSION...

BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD
POTENTIAL ACROSS WESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE IS WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THE LACK OF A DEEP SNOWPACK AND LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT ICE COVER
ON THE RIVERS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE FLOOD THREAT LOW FOR THE TIME
BEING.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MAJOR FLOODING DOES NOT
OCCUR FROM SNOW MELT ALONE. RAINFALL...HOW MUCH AND IN HOW SHORT
A PERIOD OF TIME...IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING
THE SEVERITY OF FLOODING.

ANOTHER WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 8
AM FRIDAY FEBRUARY 19.

$$
TFH



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