Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FGUS74 KHGX 051753
ESFHGX

200836-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
1150 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS RIVERS...

THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS RIVERS, IS BELOW
AVERAGE BASED UPON CURRENT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

THIS OUTLOOK CONSIDERS ANTECEDENT RAINFALL, SOIL MOISTURE,
STREAMFLOW, AND WATERSUPPLY CONDITIONS COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY
COMBINED WITH LONGER-TERM 90-DAY FORECASTS FOR TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING OVER
MOST OF THE REGION IS THE OCCURRENCE OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN
RELATIVELY SHORT PERIODS OF TIME, EVEN FOR AREAS WHERE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS PERSIST OR HAVE DEVELOPED.  I

THE GENERAL OUTLOOK FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS INCLUDING THE
LOWER TRINITY, SAN JACINTO, LOWER BRAZOS, SAN BERNARD LOWER
COLORADO, AND LAVACA-NAVIDAD RIVER BASINS.

POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING IN THIS AREA IS NEAR AVERAGE AT THIS
TIME WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIALS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS GULF
COAST.

MOST OF THE BASINS IN THIS REGION HAVE RECEIVED NEAR AVERAGE
RAINFALL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR RANGING FROM 75 TO 125 PERCENT OF
NORMAL, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL EXPERIENCED
ALONG THE GULF COAST. STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS REGION ARE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. RECENT RAIN EVENTS HAVE LEAD TO
INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND MOST AREA
RESERVOIRS ARE BELOW CONSERVATION LEVELS RANGING FROM 70 TO 100
PERCENT OF CONSERVATION STORAGE PERCENT CAPACITY.

FOR THE AREA IN FOCUS, THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES RECOVERY
FROM DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALL ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
NO ADDITIONAL DROUGHT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
ELEVATED SOIL MOISTURE OVER BASINS IN EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
MAY RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL RUNOFF FROM ANY HEAVY, LOCALIZED
CONVECTIVE SPRING RAINS OVER THIS AREA.  EXTENDED 90-DAY CLIMATE
OUTLOOKS INDICATE A 33 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURE.
TYPICALLY, RIVER FLOODING IS INCREASINGLY PROBABLE DURING THE SPRING
MONTHS IN THIS REGION. CONVECTIVE STORMS ARE GENERALLY THE FLOOD
PRODUCERS DURING THIS PERIOD. SLOW VEGETATION GROWTH COMBINED WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION MEANS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SPRING FLOODING ACROSS THIS REGION IS ENHANCED.

REFERENCES/LINKS:

PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS: HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS: HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NWIS/RT
HTTP://WWW.DWR.STATE.CO.US/SURFACEWATER/DEFAULT.ASPX

RESERVOIR SUMMARIES: HTTP://WWW.WCC.NRCS.USDA.GOV/BASIN.HTML
HTTP://WWW.WATERDATAFORTEXAS.ORG/RESERVOIRS/STATEWIDE

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING/US/SOILMST/
SOILMST.SHTML

US DROUGHT MONITOR AND OUTLOOK: HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/EXPERT_ASSESSMENT/SEASON_DROUGHT.PNG

TX DROUGHT INFORMATION: HTTP://WATERDATAFORTEXAS.ORG/DROUGHT/

CLIMATE GRAPHICS: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/LONG_RANGE/LEAD01/
OFF01_TEMP.GIF
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/LONG_RANGE/LEAD01/
OFF01_PRCP.GIF
$$



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