Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
115 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016

..2016 SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI..AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...

...FLOOD RISK IS ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER,
THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER, AND THE LOWER PEARL RIVER...
...FLOOD RISK IS AVERAGE ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA...

...INTRODUCTION....

THIS IS THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AT NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE, LOUISIANA FOR
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA, SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI, AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI. THIS PRODUCT IS INTENDED TO OUTLINE CURRENT RIVER AND
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL SITUATIONS
THAT WOULD INDUCE FLOODING OR EXACERBATE DROUGHT.

ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...

PRECIPITATION - DURING THE PAST TWO MONTHS, ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AS
WELL AS OVER THE TRIBUTARIES TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

TEMPERATURES - WARMER TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT AREAS IN THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM MAINTAINING ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THIS SEASON.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS - SNOW DEPTHS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES ARE CONFINED
TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OVER PARTS OF IOWA, MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE GENERALLY UNDER ONE INCH
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN EAST IOWA AND PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN.

SOIL MOISTURE CONTENTS - SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY ARE
NEAR NORMAL OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA, SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI, AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.

FLOODING - MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURING ON THE LOWER PEARL RIVER IN
LOUISIANA FROM BOGALUSA TO PEARL RIVER.  THE FLOODS ARE EXPECTED
TO SUBSIDE ON THE LOWER PEARL RIVER BY MARCH 6, 2016.

...EXTENDED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
INDICATES CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HIGHER CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

THE 30-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
OVER THE GULF COAST. EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS AND THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST FOR THE GULF COAST.

THE 90-DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
INDICATES CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS WITH
EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
REGION.

...LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ATCHAFALAYA RIVER BASINS...

THOUGH A MAJOR FLOOD EVENT OCCURRED IN LATE DECEMBER 2015 INTO EARLY
JANUARY, STREAMFLOWS HAVE RECEDED DURING THE PAST MONTH AND A HALF.
ANOTHER RISE IS CURRENTLY ONGOING WITH MINOR FLOODING OCCURRING OR
FORECAST TO OCCUR AT A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS ALONG THE LOWER OHIO AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVERS.

STREAMFLOWS ARE ABOVE NORMAL ON THE LOWER OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI
RIVERS. SEE THE CHART BELOW FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SHOWING PERCENT
OF NORMAL STREAMFLOWS:

3/3
MISSISSIPPI RIVERVICKSBURG MS121%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER  NATCHEZ MS117%
MISSISSIPPI RIVERRED RIVER LANDING LA114%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER  BATON ROUGE LA115%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER  NEW ORLEANS LA113%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER   SIMMESPORT LA134%

...LOWER PEARL RIVER BASIN...

OVER THE PAST MONTH, HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAS CAUSED FLOODING ACROSS
THE PEARL RIVER BASIN. MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING OVER THE LOWER
PEARL RIVER AT BOGALUSA AND PEARL RIVER, WITH BOTH LOCATIONS FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS ABOVE NORMAL. OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A
PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.

3/3
PEARL RIVER    MONTICELLO MS 98%
PEARL RIVER   BOGALUSA LA100%

...AMITE RIVER/COMITE RIVER/NORTHSHORE DRAINAGE BASINS...

DURING THE WINTER, SEASONAL RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA BUT HEAVY RAINFALL LAST WEEK PRODUCED MODERATE FLOODING ON
THE BOGUE FALAYA RIVER. ALL LOCATIONS HAVE RECEDED AND STREAMFLOWS
ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING BELOW NORMAL.

SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. NO FLOODING IS
OCCURRING OR EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                           3/3
AMITE RIVER          DARLINGTON LA    37%
AMITE RIVER   DENHAM SPRINGS LA    43%
COMITE RIVER    OLIVE BRANCH LA    20%
TCHEFUNCTE RIVER        FOLSOM LA    52%
TICKFAW RIVER      HOLDEN LA    37%
TANGIPAHOA RIVER    ROBERT LA    59%

...PASCAGOULA BASIN IN SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.....

SEASONAL RAINFALL HAS CAUSED MINOR FLOODING DURING THE WINTER. ALL
LOCATIONS HAVE RECEDED TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

STREAMFLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.
NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                           3/3
PASCAGOULA RIVER              MERRILL MS   147%

2016 SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...AND NORMAL
SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN ABOVE AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER.

THE MAGNITUDE OF FUTURE CRESTS WILL DEPEND ON THE FREQUENCY...
INTENSITY...AND EXTENT OF SPRING RAINS.

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN ABOVE AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PEARL RIVER BASIN.

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AMITE...COMITE...AND NORTHSHORE RIVER BASINS.

BASED ON CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PASCAGOULA RIVER BASIN.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST SCHEDULED SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR 2016.

$$



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