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Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
000
FGUS73 KMPX 031609
ESFMSP
MNC003-009-013-015-019-023-037-049-053-073-079-103-123-127-129-139-14
1-143-145-153-163-171-173-WIC011-035-091-093-109-312359-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1110 AM CDT FRI MAY 3 2013
IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 5/7/2013 - 8/5/2013
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS 6.0 15.0 16.0 : 14 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
NEW ULM 11.0 13.0 16.0 : 13 13 9 8 <5 <5
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO 14.0 16.0 17.5 : 47 34 14 16 <5 <5
GRANITE FALLS 888.5 893.5 896.5 : 11 13 <5 <5 <5 <5
MANKATO 22.0 25.0 30.0 : 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
HENDERSON 732.0 736.0 739.5 : 13 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
JORDAN 25.0 28.0 34.0 : 31 19 8 6 <5 <5
SAVAGE 702.0 710.0 712.0 : >95 42 9 6 <5 <5
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE 6.0 8.0 10.0 : 49 32 6 <5 <5 <5
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD 6.0 7.0 9.0 : 6 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER 11.0 15.0 16.0 : 21 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
DELANO 16.5 17.5 18.5 : 16 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 14 8 6 <5 <5 <5
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD 9.0 10.0 11.0 : 27 14 11 6 <5 <5
ANOKA 838.0 840.0 841.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
MINNEAPOLIS 16.0 16.5 17.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
ST PAUL 14.0 15.0 17.0 : 32 13 14 11 8 6
HASTINGS L/D#2 15.0 17.0 18.0 : 65 21 14 11 9 6
RED WING L/D#3 680.5 681.5 683.0 : 29 13 13 8 <5 <5
RED WING 14.0 15.0 16.0 : 32 13 19 8 8 <5
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER 87.0 88.0 89.0 : 8 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK 11.0 14.0 17.0 : 19 9 6 <5 <5 <5
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE 773.0 776.0 778.0 : 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
DURAND 13.0 15.5 17.0 : >95 18 9 <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 5/7/2013 - 8/5/2013
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS 3.7 3.7 3.7 4.3 5.4 7.1 8.0
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
NEW ULM 7.3 7.3 7.3 8.3 10.2 13.0 15.8
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO 12.9 12.9 13.0 13.9 15.4 16.3 17.1
GRANITE FALLS 886.1 886.1 886.1 886.5 887.4 889.3 889.7
MANKATO 15.6 15.6 15.6 16.0 18.5 20.5 24.5
HENDERSON 728.7 728.7 728.7 729.2 730.8 732.7 736.0
JORDAN 23.7 23.7 23.8 24.2 25.5 27.4 30.5
SAVAGE 705.5 705.5 705.8 706.4 708.2 710.2 711.6
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE 5.7 5.7 5.8 6.0 6.7 7.7 8.5
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.9 5.8 6.4
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER 6.9 6.9 7.0 8.1 10.2 13.2 15.5
DELANO 11.8 11.8 11.8 12.8 15.2 17.2 18.7
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD 5.6 5.6 5.7 6.4 8.7 11.2 12.4
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.6 9.1 10.4 10.6
ANOKA 835.5 835.5 835.5 835.7 836.9 837.8 838.9
MINNEAPOLIS 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.4 12.9 14.1 15.7
ST PAUL 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.6 14.5 16.9 19.5
HASTINGS L/D#2 14.8 14.8 14.9 15.3 16.6 18.1 19.8
RED WING L/D#3 679.1 679.1 679.2 679.4 680.9 681.7 682.8
RED WING 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.3 14.8 15.7 16.7
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER 84.4 84.4 84.5 84.7 86.1 86.9 88.1
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.8 9.9 13.7 16.5
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE 771.0 771.1 771.1 771.3 771.7 773.2 775.2
DURAND 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.3 14.6 16.0 16.3
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR
THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 5/7/2013 - 8/5/2013
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
NEW ULM 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.8
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO 6.9 5.6 4.7 3.9 3.4 2.9 2.5
GRANITE FALLS 884.3 883.8 883.3 882.8 882.3 881.9 881.7
MANKATO 7.8 5.3 4.1 3.3 2.7 2.0 1.7
HENDERSON 721.6 718.6 716.9 715.3 713.7 712.2 711.8
JORDAN 12.6 9.3 7.7 6.4 5.3 4.5 4.2
SAVAGE 692.1 690.3 688.4 687.8 687.5 687.4 687.4
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE 3.3 3.1 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.2 1.1
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD 2.9 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.4 1.1 1.0
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER 3.8 3.2 2.4 1.8 1.3 1.1 1.1
DELANO 8.2 7.5 6.6 6.0 5.5 5.3 5.3
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD 3.8 3.6 3.0 2.6 2.1 1.9 1.8
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD 5.9 5.7 5.2 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.4
ANOKA 832.4 832.1 831.5 831.4 831.3 831.2 831.1
MINNEAPOLIS 6.6 6.1 5.4 4.9 4.6 4.4 4.3
ST PAUL 4.9 4.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
HASTINGS L/D#2 7.5 6.4 5.4 5.1 4.5 4.5 4.5
RED WING L/D#3 671.9 671.5 669.5 668.7 667.4 667.0 667.0
RED WING 6.2 5.4 3.8 3.1 2.4 2.0 1.8
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER 78.0 77.6 76.3 76.0 75.5 75.3 75.1
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE 759.7 759.1 758.9 758.7 758.6 758.6 758.4
DURAND 4.1 3.7 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.5
NORMAL TO ABOVE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION HAS PREVAILED IN
APRIL. LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGED BETWEEN 2.0 INCHES IN PARTS
OF WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO 6 PLUS INCHES IN SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FOR WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED BETWEEN 4 TO AROUND 5 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS ARE
NORMAL TO 3 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL...OR NEARLY 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
UNTIL THE STORM ON MAY 2...MOST OF THE WINTER SNOW PACK HAD MELTED.
WITH THE EXCEPTION IS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER SYSTEM AND THE
UPPER CHIPPEWA RIVER SYSTEM IN WISCONSIN...MOST RIVERS EXPERIENCED
SEVERAL MELT CYCLES. THIS LIMITED THE FLOODING AND HIGH WATER.
FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI BASIN...WHICH INCLUDES THE LONG PRAIRIE
SYSTEM...AS WELL AS THE UPPER CHIPPEWA RIVER SYSTEM IN
WISCONSIN...WE ACTUALLY SAW A RAPID MELT SITUATION WITH THE MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE LAST WEEKEND IN APRIL. HENCE WE DID
SEE SOME HIGH WATER AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING ISSUES THE LAST
WEEK OF APRIL AND INTO THE FIRST OF MAY.
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN APRIL WERE IN THE 30S. THIS RANGED BETWEEN 6
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO NEARLY 12 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FOR WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...AVERAGE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ROUGHLY 6 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
WITH THE THAW...THE USGS AND MN DNR IS NOW ABLE TO CALCULATE FLOW
INFORMATION. BOTH THE MN USGS AND MN DNR INDICATED THAT AS OF EARLY
MAY...RIVERS ARE RUNNING AT NORMAL TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. FOR
WISCONSIN THE USGS SHOWS MOST RIVERS ARE AT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.
THESE ABOVE NORMAL RIVER LEVELS...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS
LONG PRAIRIE WHICH IS JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE...THE CURRENT CONDITIONS
ARE INFLUENCING THE POTENTIAL OF REACHING AND OR EXCEEDING FLOOD
STAGE LEVELS. THIS IS BECAUSE THE PROBABILITIES SHOWN ABOVE INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL TO EXCEED A GIVEN LEVEL A SINGLE TIME OR EVENT IN THE
3 MONTH PERIOD. SINCE WE ARE CURRENTLY HIGH IT WOULD NOT TAKE AS
MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN TO CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE AGAIN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON STAGES OR STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS FOR
USGS LOCATIONS REFERENCE
FOR MINNESOTA WWW.WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/MN/NWIS/RT
FOR WISCONSIN WWW.WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/WI/NWIS/RT
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON STAGES OR STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS AT MN
DNR LOCATIONS REFERENCE
WWW.DNR.STATE.MN.US/WATERS/CSG/INDEX.HTML
OR
CLIMATE.UMN.EDU/DOW/WEEKLY_STREAM_FLOW/STREAM_FLOW_WEEKLY.ASP
EVEN THOUGH FROM A HYDROLOGIC PERSPECTIVE...CONDITIONS ARE
RECOVERING...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED ON APRIL 30 STILL
SHOWS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS IN SOME LEVEL OF A DROUGHT.
DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED IN APRIL AS SOME OF THE WATER FROM
THE SNOW MELT WAS ABLE TO INFILTRATE INTO THE SOILS. FOR MUCH OF
MINNESOTA...D1 MODERATE TO D2 SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXISTS. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE CANNON AND ZUMBRO RIVER SYSTEMS IN EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA WHERE CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO ABNORMALLY DRY TO EVEN
NO DROUGHT CONDITIONS. FOR WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...D1 MODERATE TO
ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE THE RULE.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT MONITOR REFERENCE
WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
FOR FURTHER DETAILS ABOUT THE ONGOING DROUGHT...REFERENCE THE LATEST
STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
HTTP://FORECAST.WEATHER.GOV/PRODUCT.PHP?SITE=MPX&ISSUEDBY=
MPX&PRODUCT=DGT
THE MINNESOTA CLIMATE WORKING GROUP ALSO HAS A DROUGHT WEBSITE
HTTP://CLIMATE.UMN.EDU/DROUGHT
THE SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK SHOWS THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE FOR THE
NEXT WEEK. FOR CONDITIONS INTO MID MAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DRY OUT AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
FOR MAY AS A WHOLE...THE OUTLOOK SHOWS EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE OR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A WEAK INDICATION OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS WELL AS
PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE FOR PRECIPITATION THERE
IS EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THE THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR MAY...JUNE AND JULY SHOWS EQUAL CHANCES
ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA.
WHILE THE THREE MONTH OUTLOOK SHOWS EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE OR BELOW
NORMAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THE DROUGHT OUTLOOK ISSUED ON MAY 2
FOR MAY THROUGH JULY INDICATES IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS REFERENCE
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
TABLE 3 LISTED ABOVE PROVIDES A PERSPECTIVE OF THE RISK OF LOW FLOW.
THE RISK OF A LOCATION FALLING BELOW STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
PROVIDES INSIGHT OF HOW LOW THE RIVER COULD DROP THROUGH THE END OF
MAY.
PROBABILISTIC LOW FLOW OR NON EXCEEDANCE INFORMATION IS ALSO
AVAILABLE ON THE NWS AHPS WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=MPX.
LOOK UNDER THE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SECTION...LOOK FOR THE RED
HIGHLIGHTED LINK OF /HOW LOW THE RIVER COULD GO/ FOR THE LOW FLOW
AND STAGE GRAPHICS.
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE
OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.
ALL OF THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT
ON THE INTERNET AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TWINCITIES (LOWER CASE)
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED IN LATE MAY
$$
DFC
- National Weather Service
- Bismarck, ND Weather Forecast Office
- 2301 University Drive, Building 27
- Bismarck, ND 58504
- 701-250-4224
- Page Author: BIS Webmaster
- Web Master's E-mail: w-bis.webmaster@noaa.gov
- Page last modified: May 1st, 2013 15:32 UTC