Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

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FGUS65 KSTR 142018
ESGCO

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UT


                      SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
             FOR THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN WITHIN COLORADO

                         FEBRUARY 14, 2018

The 2018 spring runoff flood potential due to snowmelt is not high at this
time for the Yampa/White, Upper Colorado mainstem, Gunnison, Dolores, and
San Juan basins. It should be emphasized that it is early in the snow
accumulation season and conditions can change before runoff begins.

January precipitation was below to much below average in all basins across
western Colorado with values between 60 and 85 percent of average. February 1
snow water equivalent was between 35 and 70 percent of average and followed
the same pattern as January precipitation. February-to-date precipitation is
above average in the Upper Colorado mainstem, near average in the Gunnison/Dolores
basins, and below average in the Yampa/White basins.

February 1 official volume forecasts for the April through July runoff period
are below to much below average in all basins. Mid-February ESP model guidance
is trending higher in the Upper Colorado mainstem due to above average
precipitation during February and trending slightly lower in the Yampa/White
basins. The Gunnison and Dolores latest ESP model guidance is comparable to the
February 1 official forecasts due to near normal precipitation during the first
half of February.

It is important to keep in mind that an extended period of much above normal
temperatures or heavy rainfall during the melt period can cause or exacerbate
flooding problems in any year. The spring runoff flood potential will be
re-evaluated in early March and an updated product will be issued at that time.


CBRFC/Moser




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