Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS Missouri Basin, Pleasant Hill

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MISSOURI  BASIN RIVER  FORECAST  CENTER
WATER  SUPPLY  STATEMENT
ISSUED IN COOPERATION WITH NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE
ISSUED:  FEBRUARY 16, 2017


UPPER MISSOURI BASIN

THE HIGH ELEVATION SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER MISSOURI BASIN AS OF
FEBRUARY 1 WAS BELOW AVERAGE.  THE SNOW PACK ABOVE FORT PECK,
MONTANA WAS 75 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.  THE SNOW PACK IN THE ST MARY
BASIN WAS 81 PERCENT, AND THE MILK BASIN WAS 61 PERCENT.

JANUARY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE UPPER MISSOURI BASIN WAS MAINLY
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.  BASIN PRECIPITATION SUMMARIES FOR THE MISSOURI
BASIN INCLUDE: MILK ST. MARY,  51 PERCENT; MILK CANADA, 122
PERCENT;  LOWER MILK, 90 PERCENT; ABOVE TOSTON, 89 PERCENT;
TOSTON TO FT. PECK, 132 PERCENT.

STREAM FLOW IN THE UPPER MISSOURI BASIN IS FORECAST TO BE BELOW
TO NEAR AVERAGE DURING THE UPCOMING SPRING AND SUMMER.  THE ST. MARY
RIVER IS FORECAST TO HAVE NEAR 85 PERCENT OF AVERAGE APRIL-SEPTEMBER
FLOWS.  RUNOFF IS EXPECTED TO RANGE AROUND 98 PERCENT OF AVERAGE
FOR THE MISSOURI BASIN ABOVE FORT PECK, MONTANA.

OF THE FOUR MAJOR IRRIGATION RESERVOIRS IN MONTANA:  LIMA RESERVOIR
HAD 118 PERCENT AVERAGE STORAGE, CLARK CANYON WAS HOLDING 79 PERCENT
OF AVERAGE WATER, GIBSON RESERVOIR HAD 80 PERCENT OF AVERAGE STORED
WATER, AND FRESNO RESERVOIR HAD 127 PERCENT OF AVERAGE STORED WATER.
THE  MAJOR  HYDROELECTRIC  RESERVOIRS  IN  MONTANA (CANYON  FERRY AND
FORT PECK) HAD MONTHEND STORAGE IN THE AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE RANGE;
93 AND 116 PERCENT OF AVERAGE WATER, RESPECTIVELY.

YELLOWSTONE BASIN

THE HIGH ELEVATION SNOW PACK IN THE YELLOWSTONE BASIN WAS ABOVE
AVERAGE ON FEBRUARY 1.  THE SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER YELLOWSTONE
BASIN WAS 105 PERCENT OF AVERAGE OVERALL.  THE SNOW PACKS IN THE WIND,
BIGHORN, AND SHOSHONE BASINS WERE 168, 98, AND 123 PERCENT OF AVERAGE,
RESPECTIVELY.  THE SNOW PACKS IN THE TONGUE AND POWDER BASINS WERE
103 AND 90 PERCENT OF AVERAGE, RESPECTIVELY.

PRECIPITATION DURING JANUARY WAS ABOVE AVERAGE.  THE UPPER
YELLOWSTONE RIVER BASIN RECEIVED 119 PERCENT OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
WHILE THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE BASIN REPORTED 133 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.
THE BIGHORN BASIN RECEIVED 180 PERCENT OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION WHILE
THE WIND RIVER BASIN RECEIVED 283 PERCENT OF AVERAGE. THE LITTLE
BIGHORN - UPPER TONGUE BASIN RECEIVED 134 PERCENT OF AVERAGE
AND THE POWDER RIVER HAD 107 PERCENT OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.

FORECAST STREAM FLOW IN THE YELLOWSTONE BASIN RANGE FROM BELOW TO ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE UPCOMING SPRING AND SUMMER.  STREAM FLOW FOR THE BIGHORN RIVER
NEAR ST. XAVIER, MONTANA IS FORECAST TO BE 147 PERCENT OF
AVERAGE.  FLOW IN THE TONGUE BASIN IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 75 PERCENT
OF AVERAGE.  FLOWS IN THE POWDER RIVER ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 70
PERCENT OF AVERAGE.

MONTHEND STORAGE AT BOYSEN RESERVOIR WAS 117 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.
STORED WATER IN BUFFALO BILL RESERVOIR WAS 136 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.
MONTHEND STORAGE WAS 106 PERCENT OF AVERAGE AT BIGHORN RESERVOIR.

PLATTE BASIN

THE HIGH ELEVATION  SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE BASIN WAS
129 PERCENT OF AVERAGE ON FEBRUARY 1.  THE SNOW PACK IN THE NORTH
PLATTE  BASIN BELOW SEMINOE RESERVOIR WAS 109 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.
THE SNOW PACK IN THE SOUTH PLATTE BASIN WAS 134 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.

PRECIPITATION DURING JANUARY IN THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE BASIN WAS 217
PERCENT OF AVERAGE. IN THE LOWER NORTH PLATTE BASIN PRECIPITATION
WAS 188 PERCENT OF AVERAGE. THE NORTH PLATTE PLAINS BELOW GUERNSY RESERVOIR
HAD 212 PERCENT OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.  THE SOUTH PLATTE MOUNTAINS
HAD 176 PERCENT WHEREAS THE PLAINS HAD 181 PERCENT OF AVERAGE
JANUARY PRECIPITATION.

STREAM FLOW IN THE PLATTE BASIN IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE
DURING THE UPCOMING SPRING AND SUMMER. RUNOFF FOR STREAMS
ABOVE SEMINOE RESERVOIR ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 135 PERCENT
OF AVERAGE.  STREAMS IN THE SOUTH PLATTE BASIN ABOVE SOUTH PLATTE,
COLORADO CAN EXPECT 75 PERCENT OF AVERAGE FLOW. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SOUTH PLATTE BASIN FLOWS ARE EXPECTED NEAR 78 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.

STORED WATER IN THE SOUTH PLATTE BASIN WAS 104 PERCENT OF AVERAGE
ON FEBRUARY 1.




WATER SUPPLY FORECAST
NWS MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
PLEASANT HILL MISSOURI

1350 CST TUESDAY FEBRUARY 07 2017

DATA CURRENT AS OF: FEBRUARY 07 2017

MISSOURI/YELLOWSTONE/PLATTE RIVER BASIN FORECASTS

                                        50%   %   10%   90%   AVG
FORECAST POINT                  PERIOD (KAF) AVG (KAF) (KAF) (KAF)
------------------------------------------------------------------
BOYSEN RESERVOIR INFLOW        APR-SEP1318 167% 1872  1029 787
SBDW4N
BIGHORN R AT KANE        APR-SEP2358 151% 3077  1830 1564
LVEW4N
GREYBULL R NR MEETEETSE        APR-SEP252  104% 380180  242
MEEW4N
BUFFALO BILL RESERVOIR INFLOWAPR-SEP1117 140% 1357  936  800
CDYW4N
ST MARY R NR BABB        APR-SEP368  84%  463299  437
SMYM8N
ST MARY R AT INT BOUNDARYAPR-SEP443  87%  574357  507
SMBM8N
MILK R NR CUT BANK        APR-SEP26   73%  7212   35
PDBM8N
MILK R AT EASTERN CROSSINGAPR-SEP36   57%  12318   62
ERNM8N
NORTH PLATTE R NR NORTHGATEAPR-SEP450  198% 603333  228
NGTC2
ENCAMPMENT R NR ENCAMPMENTAPR-SEP179  108% 221126  166
ERCW4
EMCAMPMENT R NR ENCAMPMENTAPR-SEP188  108% 229135  175
ECRW4N
ROCK CK NR ARLINGTON        APR-SEP57   125% 7542   46
KCRW4
ROCK CK NR ARLINGTON        APR-SEP57   124% 7543   46
KCRW4N
SEMINOE RESERVOIR INFLOW WYAPR-SEP1025 138% 1430  740  745
SETW4
SEMINOE RESERVOIR INFLOW WYAPR-SEP1175 131% 1592  886  900
SETW4N
LARAMIE R NR WOODS        APR-SEP65   106% 11430   61
WODW4
LARAMIE R NR WOODS        APR-SEP101  104% 14964   97
WODW4N
LITTLE LARAMIE R NR FILMOREAPR-SEP67   133% 9850   50
SMTW4
LITTLE LARAMIE R NR FILMOREAPR-SEP69   132% 10052   53
SMTW4N
ANTERO RESERVOIR INFLOW        APR-SEP16   99%  2410   16
ANRC2N
SPINNEY MOUNTAIN RES INFLOWAPR-SEP52   87%  8936   59
SPYC2N
ELEVENMILE CANYON RES INFLOWAPR-SEP53   82%  9538   65
EVNC2N
CHEESMAN LAKE INFLOW        APR-SEP88   72%  16759   124
CHEC2N
SOUTH PLATTE R AT SOUTH PLATTEAPR-SEP156  75%  29098   209
SPTC2N
BEAR CR AT MORRISON        APR-SEP10   51%  395    19
MRRC2N
CLEAR CK AT GOLDEN        APR-SEP100  90%  16264   110
GLDC2N
ST VRAIN CK AT LYONS        APR-SEP98   102% 13471   96
LNSC2N
BOULDER CK NR ORODELL        APR-SEP54   100% 9337   54
OROC2N
S BOULDER CK NR ELDORADO SPRINGSAPR-SEP29   78%  4917   38
BELC2N
CACHE LA POUDRE AT CANYON MOUTHAPR-SEP219  107% 317143  205
FTDC2N
LIMA RESERVOIR INFLOW        APR-SEP48   72%  8030   66
LRRM8N
CLARK CANYON RESERVOIR INFLOWAPR-SEP165  94%  268103  177
CLKM8N
BEAVERHEAD R AT BARRETTSAPR-SEP197  93%  303131  210
BARM8N
RUBY R RESERVOIR INFLOW        APR-SEP75   84%  9957   90
ALRM8N
BIG HOLE R NR MELROSE        APR-SEP538  102% 816411  525
MLRM8
BIG HOLE R NR MELROSE        APR-SEP594  102% 873468  583
MLRM8N
HEBGEN RESERVOIR INFLOW        APR-SEP443  107% 515364  415
HBDM8N
ENNIS RESERVOIR INFLOW        APR-SEP720  98%  854591  731
ELMM8N
GALLATIN R NR GATEWAY        APR-SEP467  101% 540357  464
GLGM8
GALLATIN R NR GATEWAY        APR-SEP467  106% 540357  442
GLGM8N
GALLATIN R AT LOGAN        APR-SEP433  96%  586305  451
LOGM8
GALLATIN R AT LOGAN        APR-SEP566  97%  711435  583
LOGM8N
MISSOURI R AT TOSTON        APR-SEP2436 100% 3317  2017 2430
TOSM8N
MISSOURI R AT FORT BENTONAPR-SEP3631 93%  4853  2889 3921
FBNM8N
MISSOURI R NR VIRGELLE        APR-SEP4211 97%  5636  3291 4324
VRGM8N
MISSOURI R NR LANDUSKY        APR-SEP4428 98%  5998  3449 4512
LDKM8N
MISSOURI R BLW FT PECK DAMAPR-SEP4717 100% 6274  3631 4706
FPKM8N
GIBSON RESERVOIR INFLOW        APR-SEP496  136% 708397  365
AGSM8N
MARIAS R NR SHELBY        APR-SEP467  154% 650347  304
SHLM8N
MUSSELSHELL R AT HARLOWTONAPR-SEP35   46%  7520   77
HLWM8N
YELLOWSTONE R AT YELLOWSTONE LKAPR-SEP870  125% 984731  696
YLOW4APR
YELLOWSTONE R AT YELLOWSTONE LKAPR-SEP1078 124% 1223  916  868
YLOW4N
YELLOWSTONE R AT CORWIN SPRINGSAPR-SEP2010 116% 2226  1628 1728
CORM8
YELLOWSTONE R AT CORWIN SPRINGSAPR-SEP2314 116% 2580  1917 1986
CORM8N
YELLOWSTONE R AT LIVINGSTONAPR-SEP2169 107% 2426  1773 2026
LIVM8
YELLOWSTONE R AT LIVINGSTONAPR-SEP2550 108% 2837  2124 2365
LIVM8N
YELLOWSTONE R AT BILLINGSAPR-SEP3460 99%  4052  2807 3479
BILM8
YELLOWSTONE R AT BILLINGSAPR-SEP4588 101% 5160  3867 4523
BILM8N
YELLOWSTONE R AT MILES CITYAPR-SEP8848 116% 10616 7174 7651
MILM8N
YELLOWSTONE R AT SIDNEY        APR-SEP9324 115% 11099 7382 8120
SIDM8N
BOULDER R AT BIG TIMBER        APR-SEP168  68%  207121  246
BTMM8
BOULDER R AT BIG TIMBER        APR-SEP263  77%  304211  343
BTMM8N
STILLWATER R NR ABSAROKEEAPR-SEP514  96%  569431  536
SRAM8
STILLWATER R NR ABSOROKEEAPR-SEP572  97%  626490  590
SRAM8N
CLARKS FK YELWSTONE R NR BELFRYAPR-SEP677  129% 798586  524
BFYM4
CLARKS FK YELWSTONE R NR BELFRYAPR-SEP746  126% 868658  591
BFYM4N
BIGHORN R NR ST XAVIER        APR-SEP3676 147% 4628  2843 2504
STXM8N
LITTLE BIGHORN R NR HARDINAPR-SEP103  101% 14974   102
HRDM8N
TONGUE R NR DAYTON        APR-SEP84   87%  10459   96
DAYW4N
TONGUE R NR DECKER        APR-SEP181  74%  232123  244
DSLM8N
TONGUE R RESERVOIR INFLOWAPR-SEP182  74%  235124  245
DKRM8N
POWDER R AT MOORHEAD        APR-SEP202  68%  403128  295
MHDM8
POWDER R NR LOCATE        APR-SEP234  69%  470141  337
LOCM8N

LOCATIONS WITH A N SUFFIX INDICATES NATURAL FLOWS EXCLUDING STREAM
AUGMENTATIONS

KAF: THOUSANDS OF ACRE-FEET

THE 50%, 10%, AND 90% COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY THAT THE
ACTUAL VOLUME WILL EXCEED THE FORECAST FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD

%AVG: CURRENT 50%/AVG

AVG: AVERAGE (50%) SEASONAL RUNOFF VOLUME AS SIMULATED BY THE RIVER
FORECAST MODEL CONSIDERING A CONTINUOUS SIMULATION OF THE BASIN
RESPONSE TO HISTORIC CLIMATE DATA (IE OBSERVED PRECIPITATION
AND TEMPERATURES) OVER THE PERIOD OF 1979-2001



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