Flash Flood Guidance
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000
AWUS01 KWNH 300111
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-300709-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0154
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
911 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 300109Z - 300709Z

SUMMARY...INCREASING CONVECTION ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS SHOULD TO FOCUS A
CORRIDOR OF HEAVIER RAINFALL FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...00Z MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEFINED SURFACE
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTH OF SGF TO FAM TO MVN. DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW AS SEEN IN THE VWP WITH 20-25 KTS WILL INCREASE IN
THE LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL INCREASE WARM
AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN CAPES OF 2000-2500 BEING ADVECTED
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY MEASURED AROUND
1.75"...CONVECTION SHOULD BE EFFICIENTLY PRODUCING RATES UP TO
2"/HR.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LIFT EVER SO SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD...LESS SO THERE FURTHER WEST...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
REPEAT OR WEAK TRAINING OF CELLS...AS CELL MOTION VECTORS ARE
FORECAST TO BE VEERING FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WITH RIGHT JET
ENTRANCE DYNAMICS SHOULD SUPPORT EXPANSION OF MODERATE 1-1.25"/HR
STRATIFORM/SHIELD PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MISSOURI
INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS.

A WEAK MCV SEEN IN SGF RADAR MAY ACT AS THE HARBINGER OF THE END
OF STRONGER DEEPER CONVECTION INTO MORE STRATIFORM REGION IN THE
COMMA HEAD WILL LIFT ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR...IN LINE WITH LATEST
HRRR RUNS.

GALLINA

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ILX...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   39909022 39438890 38218913 37548953 36809178
            36599305 36679364 37899358 38459316 39179192




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