Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 231907
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
307 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...Pretty quiet for the next several days...

.DISCUSSION...Large high pressure in central Canada will move over
Michigan for Friday and Saturday. This will provide an extended
period of cool but mainly precipitation-free weather. The primary
exception is late tonight into Thursday morning, when a few lake
effect rain showers will be possible in small parts of northwest
and northeast lower Michigan. Most places will stay rain-free.

Ongoing gusty nw winds will diminish tonight, with lighter
northerly breezes on Thursday, and even lighter still on Friday.
Humidity levels will be slowly but steadily getting lower over the
next couple of days.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-241100-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
307 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers until 2000. isolated rain showers after
                    0400.
Min Temperature.....47-52...except 55-60 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent...except 78-83 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (110).
Mixing Height.......1200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers until 1400.
Max Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........48-53 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (600).
Mixing Height.......6400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....40-45...except 48-53 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter...except 14 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 3 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max Temperature.....67-72.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........42-47 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (200).
Mixing Height.......5500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 3 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-241100-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
307 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers until 2200.
Min Temperature.....46-51...except 56-61 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent...except 75-80 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier...except 3 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (150).
Mixing Height.......1500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers after 0800.
Max Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........50-55 percent...except 70-75 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter...except 10 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (550).
Mixing Height.......6200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....41-46...except 52-57 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent...except 84-89 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....67-72.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........39-44 percent...except 53-58 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent drier...except 6 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northeast in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (310).
Mixing Height.......5800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-241100-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
307 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min Temperature.....45-50...except 58-63 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent...except 72-77 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (120).
Mixing Height.......1100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers after 0800 until 1400.
Max Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent...except 58-63 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (710).
Mixing Height.......6300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....37-42...except 54-59 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent...except 78-83 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter...except 17 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 3 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max Temperature.....68-73...except 61-66 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent...except 54-59 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent drier...except 5 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming north around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (220).
Mixing Height.......5100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 3 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-241100-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
307 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....45-50...except 52-57 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent...except 78-83 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier...except 2 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (40).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent).
Max Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........52-57 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (760).
Mixing Height.......6400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....36-41...except 44-49 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 3 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max Temperature.....67-72.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent...except 49-54 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent drier...except 9 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming northwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (250).
Mixing Height.......5500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 3 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-241100-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
307 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers until 2000.
Min Temperature.....42-47.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (70).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
Max Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........51-56 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (590).
Mixing Height.......6500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....42-47.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 3 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max Temperature.....68-73.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (240).
Mixing Height.......6300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 3 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

JZ


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