Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 132015
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
415 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

...COOL WITH RAIN SHOWERS TO START THE WORK WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL STALL AROUND QUEBEC TO
START THE WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
TUESDAY.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE
ROCKIES...WILL PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY...BEFORE
SETTLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL GENERATE NEARLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF SUN ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO END THE WORK WEEK.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-140845-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
415 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. GUSTS TO AROUND 20
                    MPH THIS EVENING. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400...THEN RAIN
                    SHOWERS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1460).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.12 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........66-71 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (770).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.17 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-140845-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
415 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH THIS EVENING...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND
                    9 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1660).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 2000...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.10 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (770).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.07-0.17 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-140845-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
415 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
                    MPH THIS EVENING SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400...THEN RAIN
                    SHOWERS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1480).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 0200...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08-0.18 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........65-70 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (780).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.12 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-140845-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
415 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
                    MPH THIS EVENING SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400...THEN RAIN
                    SHOWERS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1840).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 0200...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.08 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........64-69 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1020).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-140845-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
415 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH THIS EVENING SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND
                    9 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2130).
MIXING HEIGHT.......9400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 2000...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.09 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (990).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 27 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.13 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

SWR





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