Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 281943
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
343 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

...A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...MAINLY PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MORE
SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 20-25 MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-290815-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
343 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT...EXCEPT 70-75 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1300).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO EAST
                    AROUND 24 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (430).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........58-63 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 2 PERCENT WETTER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (620).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-290815-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
343 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 0500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (50).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1100 UNTIL 1700...THEN SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........61-66 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1060).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 21 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 4 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (490).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 24 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (630).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.32 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-290815-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
343 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2300.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57...EXCEPT AROUND 61 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1420).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 24
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58...EXCEPT AROUND 61 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (340).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 21 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT...EXCEPT 70-75 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (680).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.13 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-290815-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
343 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 5 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1590).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 27
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (310).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 21 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........67-72 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 13 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (820).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.18 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-290815-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
343 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 0500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (50).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1500).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 18 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (350).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 21 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1400...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........67-72 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (770).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.37 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MG


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