969
FNUS53 KAPX 050709
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
309 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

...Clearing skies & not quite as warm today ...

.DISCUSSION...A cold front continues to trek across northern
Michigan early this morning. Any low clouds this morning should
dissipate through midday with plentiful afternoon sun and
temperatures a good 10-15 degrees cooler than yesterday, but still
topping out in the 60s to near 70 degrees area-wide. Afternoon RHs
falling to near 30%, especially inland.

Sunny skies expected to prevail again Monday with high temps
climbing a few degrees into the 70s for most with RHs falling to
near critical levels during the afternoon.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-052015-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
309 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Becoming mostly sunny (10-20 percent).
Max Temperature.....64-69...except 49-54 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........29-34 percent...except 39-44 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent drier...except 13 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (589).
Mixing Height.......3700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent). Areas of frost
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....34-39.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent...except 78-83 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (13).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). Areas of frost until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....67-72...except around 60 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........24-29 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming east around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (329).
Mixing Height.......5300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 3 mph shifting to the west around 6
                    mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-052015-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
309 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent) until 1200, then
                    sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....67-72...except 49-54 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 8 degrees warmer near the
                    coast.
Min Humidity........27-32 percent.
   24 HR Trend......29 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (615).
Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .

.TONIGHT...Isolated rain
                    showers until 1200.
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent). Areas of frost
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....35-40.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent...except 78-83 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent). Patchy frost until 1200.
Max Temperature.....66-71...except 52-57 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........26-31 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming east around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (314).
Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the east around
                    9 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-052015-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
309 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) until 1200, then
                    mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....62-67...except 44-49 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler...except 18 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........31-36 percent.
   24 HR Trend......18 percent drier...except 10 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (447).
Mixing Height.......3400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent). Areas of frost
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....34-39...except around 41 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler...except 4 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent...except 75-80 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 12 percent drier along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (18).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the east after
                    midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent). Areas of frost until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....70-75...except 49-54 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........25-30 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (365).
Mixing Height.......5100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-052015-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
309 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) until 1200, then
                    mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....64-69...except 53-58 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........29-34 percent...except 41-46 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......25 percent drier...except 13 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (537).
Mixing Height.......4100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Clear (0-10 percent). Areas of frost after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....33-38.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........86-91 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 9 mph shifting to the east around
                    6 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). Areas of frost until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....70-75...except 60-65 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........26-31 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier...except 10 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (435).
Mixing Height.......5700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-052015-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
309 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent) until 1200, then
                    sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....66-71.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........28-33 percent.
   24 HR Trend......26 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (619).
Mixing Height.......4800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Clear (0-10 percent). Areas of frost after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....35-40.
   24 HR Trend......15 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (15).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent). Areas of frost until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....67-72.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........24-29 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (425).
Mixing Height.......5900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 6 mph shifting to the
                    southeast in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.

$$

MJG