Land Management Forecasts
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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ECCDA Discussions
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
359 PM PDT Tue Oct 17 2017

ECC029-181700-
Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Vandenberg ECC Dispatch
359 PM PDT Tue Oct 17 2017

...Discussion from Los Angeles/Oxnard...

...Elevated fire weather conditions continue across Southwest
California    through this evening due to continued very warm and
dry conditions...

...Slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon through tonight
with isolated    dry lightning strikes and gusty erratic downdraft
winds possible across    much of Southwest California...

...Periods of gusty sundowner winds will bring elevated fire danger
  across southern Santa Barbara county much of this week with
possible    stronger winds Friday night into Saturday night...

...Potential for prolonged duration of Santa Ana winds, hot
temperatures and    low humidities Sunday into Tuesday...

Elevated fire danger will continue across much of Southwest
California through this evening as weak offshore flow continues to
bring very warm and dry conditions...with widespread single digit
humidities today across inland areas. Some lightning strikes have
been detected off the coast of Point Conception today associated
with a weak upper level disturbance and increasing subtropical mid
level moisture. As this system passes over our area this afternoon
and  tonight, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms across San
Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and western Ventura counties...as well
as the mountains of Los Angeles County. Due to the very dry lower
levels of the atmosphere, any storms that develop will be capable of
producing isolated dry lightning strikes and gusty erratic downdraft
winds.

Gusty sundowner winds are expected to impact southern Santa Barbara
county much of this week. This afternoon and evening, wind gusts
between 35 and 45 mph with humidities falling into the teens will
bring elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions across the
Santa Ynez Range and Santa Barbara south coast. In the wake of a
passing upper level trough, there is the potential for stronger
sundowner winds Friday night into Saturday evening.

From Sunday through next Tuesday, there is the potential for a
prolonged duration of gusty Santa Ana winds with hot and very dry
conditions. While there is still some uncertainty with the strength
of this upcoming Santa Ana event (which will depend on the upper
level wind support), there will be the potential for at least
moderate Santa Ana winds, triple digit heat, and humidities falling
into the single digits and teens which could bring a return of
critical fire weather conditions to portions of Southwest
California.


...Discussion from Monterey...

Increasing high clouds for most of the district overnight but any
moisture is expected to stay south of Monterey. Otherwise the main
weather concern tonight will be continued poor overnight humidity
recovery that will impact ongoing fires and any new starts. Winds
will remain light and generally from the north overnight. Some
slight cooling by Wednesday afternoon with winds turning more
onshore or westerly by late afternoon and evening. The onshore
breezes will bring better humidity recovery Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Slight chance of light rain in the North Bay by
Thursday with a only a few hundredths down into the  Santa Cruz
mountains. The main impact of the front will be cooler  temperatures
and higher humidity for Friday. However long range  trends show
significant warming, dry and periods of offshore winds over the
weekend and into early next week.

Note : All winds are 20-foot Winds Unless otherwise specified.
Thunderstorms imply strong, gusty and erratic winds.



$$

ECC028-181700-
Santa Barbara County excluding Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Santa Barbara ECC Dispatch
359 PM PDT Tue Oct 17 2017

...Elevated fire weather conditions continue across Southwest
California    through this evening due to continued very warm and
dry conditions...

...Slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon through tonight
with isolated    dry lightning strikes and gusty erratic downdraft
winds possible across    much of Southwest California...

...Periods of gusty sundowner winds will bring elevated fire danger
  across southern Santa Barbara county much of this week with
possible    stronger winds Friday night into Saturday night...

...Potential for prolonged duration of Santa Ana winds, hot
temperatures and    low humidities Sunday into Tuesday...

Elevated fire danger will continue across much of Southwest
California through this evening as weak offshore flow continues to
bring very warm and dry conditions...with widespread single digit
humidities today across inland areas. Some lightning strikes have
been detected off the coast of Point Conception today associated
with a weak upper level disturbance and increasing subtropical mid
level moisture. As this system passes over our area this afternoon
and  tonight, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms across San
Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and western Ventura counties...as well
as the mountains of Los Angeles County. Due to the very dry lower
levels of the atmosphere, any storms that develop will be capable of
producing isolated dry lightning strikes and gusty erratic downdraft
winds.

Gusty sundowner winds are expected to impact southern Santa Barbara
county much of this week. This afternoon and evening, wind gusts
between 35 and 45 mph with humidities falling into the teens will
bring elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions across the
Santa Ynez Range and Santa Barbara south coast. In the wake of a
passing upper level trough, there is the potential for stronger
sundowner winds Friday night into Saturday evening.

From Sunday through next Tuesday, there is the potential for a
prolonged duration of gusty Santa Ana winds with hot and very dry
conditions. While there is still some uncertainty with the strength
of this upcoming Santa Ana event (which will depend on the upper
level wind support), there will be the potential for at least
moderate Santa Ana winds, triple digit heat, and humidities falling
into the single digits and teens which could bring a return of
critical fire weather conditions to portions of Southwest
California.


$$

ECC031-181700-
Angeles National Forest-
Discussion for Lancaster ECC Dispatch
359 PM PDT Tue Oct 17 2017

...Elevated fire weather conditions continue across Southwest
California    through this evening due to continued very warm and
dry conditions...

...Slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon through tonight
with isolated    dry lightning strikes and gusty erratic downdraft
winds possible across    much of Southwest California...

...Periods of gusty sundowner winds will bring elevated fire danger
  across southern Santa Barbara county much of this week with
possible    stronger winds Friday night into Saturday night...

...Potential for prolonged duration of Santa Ana winds, hot
temperatures and    low humidities Sunday into Tuesday...

Elevated fire danger will continue across much of Southwest
California through this evening as weak offshore flow continues to
bring very warm and dry conditions...with widespread single digit
humidities today across inland areas. Some lightning strikes have
been detected off the coast of Point Conception today associated
with a weak upper level disturbance and increasing subtropical mid
level moisture. As this system passes over our area this afternoon
and  tonight, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms across San
Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and western Ventura counties...as well
as the mountains of Los Angeles County. Due to the very dry lower
levels of the atmosphere, any storms that develop will be capable of
producing isolated dry lightning strikes and gusty erratic downdraft
winds.

Gusty sundowner winds are expected to impact southern Santa Barbara
county much of this week. This afternoon and evening, wind gusts
between 35 and 45 mph with humidities falling into the teens will
bring elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions across the
Santa Ynez Range and Santa Barbara south coast. In the wake of a
passing upper level trough, there is the potential for stronger
sundowner winds Friday night into Saturday evening.

From Sunday through next Tuesday, there is the potential for a
prolonged duration of gusty Santa Ana winds with hot and very dry
conditions. While there is still some uncertainty with the strength
of this upcoming Santa Ana event (which will depend on the upper
level wind support), there will be the potential for at least
moderate Santa Ana winds, triple digit heat, and humidities falling
into the single digits and teens which could bring a return of
critical fire weather conditions to portions of Southwest
California.


$$

ECC024-181700-
San Luis Obispo County-
Discussion for San Luis Obispo ECC Dispatch
359 PM PDT Tue Oct 17 2017

...Elevated fire weather conditions continue across Southwest
California    through this evening due to continued very warm and
dry conditions...

...Slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon through tonight
with isolated    dry lightning strikes and gusty erratic downdraft
winds possible across    much of Southwest California...

...Periods of gusty sundowner winds will bring elevated fire danger
  across southern Santa Barbara county much of this week with
possible    stronger winds Friday night into Saturday night...

...Potential for prolonged duration of Santa Ana winds, hot
temperatures and    low humidities Sunday into Tuesday...

Elevated fire danger will continue across much of Southwest
California through this evening as weak offshore flow continues to
bring very warm and dry conditions...with widespread single digit
humidities today across inland areas. Some lightning strikes have
been detected off the coast of Point Conception today associated
with a weak upper level disturbance and increasing subtropical mid
level moisture. As this system passes over our area this afternoon
and  tonight, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms across San
Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and western Ventura counties...as well
as the mountains of Los Angeles County. Due to the very dry lower
levels of the atmosphere, any storms that develop will be capable of
producing isolated dry lightning strikes and gusty erratic downdraft
winds.

Gusty sundowner winds are expected to impact southern Santa Barbara
county much of this week. This afternoon and evening, wind gusts
between 35 and 45 mph with humidities falling into the teens will
bring elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions across the
Santa Ynez Range and Santa Barbara south coast. In the wake of a
passing upper level trough, there is the potential for stronger
sundowner winds Friday night into Saturday evening.

From Sunday through next Tuesday, there is the potential for a
prolonged duration of gusty Santa Ana winds with hot and very dry
conditions. While there is still some uncertainty with the strength
of this upcoming Santa Ana event (which will depend on the upper
level wind support), there will be the potential for at least
moderate Santa Ana winds, triple digit heat, and humidities falling
into the single digits and teens which could bring a return of
critical fire weather conditions to portions of Southwest
California.


$$

ECC032-181700-
Ventura County excluding Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Ventura ECC Dispatch
359 PM PDT Tue Oct 17 2017

...Elevated fire weather conditions continue across Southwest
California    through this evening due to continued very warm and
dry conditions...

...Slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon through tonight
with isolated    dry lightning strikes and gusty erratic downdraft
winds possible across    much of Southwest California...

...Periods of gusty sundowner winds will bring elevated fire danger
  across southern Santa Barbara county much of this week with
possible    stronger winds Friday night into Saturday night...

...Potential for prolonged duration of Santa Ana winds, hot
temperatures and    low humidities Sunday into Tuesday...

Elevated fire danger will continue across much of Southwest
California through this evening as weak offshore flow continues to
bring very warm and dry conditions...with widespread single digit
humidities today across inland areas. Some lightning strikes have
been detected off the coast of Point Conception today associated
with a weak upper level disturbance and increasing subtropical mid
level moisture. As this system passes over our area this afternoon
and  tonight, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms across San
Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and western Ventura counties...as well
as the mountains of Los Angeles County. Due to the very dry lower
levels of the atmosphere, any storms that develop will be capable of
producing isolated dry lightning strikes and gusty erratic downdraft
winds.

Gusty sundowner winds are expected to impact southern Santa Barbara
county much of this week. This afternoon and evening, wind gusts
between 35 and 45 mph with humidities falling into the teens will
bring elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions across the
Santa Ynez Range and Santa Barbara south coast. In the wake of a
passing upper level trough, there is the potential for stronger
sundowner winds Friday night into Saturday evening.

From Sunday through next Tuesday, there is the potential for a
prolonged duration of gusty Santa Ana winds with hot and very dry
conditions. While there is still some uncertainty with the strength
of this upcoming Santa Ana event (which will depend on the upper
level wind support), there will be the potential for at least
moderate Santa Ana winds, triple digit heat, and humidities falling
into the single digits and teens which could bring a return of
critical fire weather conditions to portions of Southwest
California.


$$

ECC030-181700-
Los Angeles County excluding Angeles National Forest-
Discussion for Los Angeles ECC Dispatch
359 PM PDT Tue Oct 17 2017

...Elevated fire weather conditions continue across Southwest
California    through this evening due to continued very warm and
dry conditions...

...Slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon through tonight
with isolated    dry lightning strikes and gusty erratic downdraft
winds possible across    much of Southwest California...

...Periods of gusty sundowner winds will bring elevated fire danger
  across southern Santa Barbara county much of this week with
possible    stronger winds Friday night into Saturday night...

...Potential for prolonged duration of Santa Ana winds, hot
temperatures and    low humidities Sunday into Tuesday...

Elevated fire danger will continue across much of Southwest
California through this evening as weak offshore flow continues to
bring very warm and dry conditions...with widespread single digit
humidities today across inland areas. Some lightning strikes have
been detected off the coast of Point Conception today associated
with a weak upper level disturbance and increasing subtropical mid
level moisture. As this system passes over our area this afternoon
and  tonight, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms across San
Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and western Ventura counties...as well
as the mountains of Los Angeles County. Due to the very dry lower
levels of the atmosphere, any storms that develop will be capable of
producing isolated dry lightning strikes and gusty erratic downdraft
winds.

Gusty sundowner winds are expected to impact southern Santa Barbara
county much of this week. This afternoon and evening, wind gusts
between 35 and 45 mph with humidities falling into the teens will
bring elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions across the
Santa Ynez Range and Santa Barbara south coast. In the wake of a
passing upper level trough, there is the potential for stronger
sundowner winds Friday night into Saturday evening.

From Sunday through next Tuesday, there is the potential for a
prolonged duration of gusty Santa Ana winds with hot and very dry
conditions. While there is still some uncertainty with the strength
of this upcoming Santa Ana event (which will depend on the upper
level wind support), there will be the potential for at least
moderate Santa Ana winds, triple digit heat, and humidities falling
into the single digits and teens which could bring a return of
critical fire weather conditions to portions of Southwest
California.


$$



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