Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FNUS75 KABQ 260009
FWSABQ

Spot Forecast for Rancho Fire...USFS
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
609 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms just to the southeast of the fire may have resulted in
an outflow boundary that would create erratic and gusty winds for the
next hour or so. Additional showers are upstream of the fire and
though these showers are decreasing, there remains a good chance of
at least some light rain this evening, and potentially a few
lightning strikes. Most of the activity will decrease by midnight.
Another round of storms is expected on Wednesday and Thursday, though
storm coverage will be greater on Thursday, thus a higher chance that
the fire would be impacted. Storm motions will be slower on
Wednesday, but generally toward the east around 5 mph. On Thursday,
storms may move more toward the south or southwest at 5 to 10 mph.
Due to the slower storm motions Wed/Thu, and continued abundant
moisture, if a storm develops over the fire, heavy rains are
possible.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and
                    thunderstorms in the evening, then partly
                    cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms
                    after midnight.
Chance of Pcpn......50 percent decreasing to 20 percent after
                    midnight.
Min Temperature.....53-57.
Max Humidity........81-85 percent.
20 Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 7 mph shifting to the west
                    3 to 6 mph after midnight. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Ventilation Trend...Poor/33000 knot-ft by early evening and
                    poor/1500 knot-ft by late evening.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy with isolated showers and
                    thunderstorms in the morning, then mostly
                    cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms
                    in the afternoon.
Chance of Pcpn......20 percent increasing to 40 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Max Temperature.....74-79.
Min Humidity........40-45 percent.
20 Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 4 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing Height.......6000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 12 knots.
Max Vent Rate.......Fair/59889 knot-ft at 1100 local.
Ventilation Trend...Fair/59889 knot-ft around mid morning and
                    poor/16500 knot-ft by mid afternoon.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and
                    thunderstorms.
Chance of Pcpn......50 percent.
Min Temperature.....52-56.
Max Humidity........83-87 percent.
20 Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 7 mph shifting to the east 5 to
                    7 mph after midnight. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Ventilation Trend...Poor/13491 knot-ft by early evening and
                    poor/6000 knot-ft by late evening.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and
                    thunderstorms in the morning, then numerous
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of Pcpn......30 percent increasing to 70 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Max Temperature.....73-77.
Min Humidity........46-50 percent.
20 Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    south 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing Height.......4500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 13 knots.
Max Vent Rate.......Fair/54311 knot-ft at 1700 local.
Ventilation Trend...Poor/7667 knot-ft around mid morning and
                    fair/54311 knot-ft by mid afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...34
Requested by...IC
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1713390.0/ABQ



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