Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FNUS71 KAKQ 240108
FWSAKQ

SPOT FORECAST FOR COLD HARBOR...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
908 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE UP THE COAST TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE OVER THE BURN SITE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE STEADY AND INCREASE IN
INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
AROUND 0.10 INCHES IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 0.60-0.80 INCHES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL START TO TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY...MAINLY IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65 AT IGNITION. HIGH AROUND 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........74 TO 79 PERCENT AT IGNITION. MIN RH OF 67 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT AT TIME OF IGNITION. 70 PERCENT AFTER
                    1400.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-2900 FT AGL AT TIME OF IGNITION. 2900-3300 FT
                    AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 7 TO 15 MPH...INCREASING TO 16 TO 21 MPH
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............88  88  88  92  92  92  94  94  94  93  93  93
WEATHER COV.........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE........RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
TSTM COV............
TEMP................55  55  57  60  63  65  66  67  68  69  70  69
RH..................90  93  90  84  78  75  75  73  73  73  71  76
CHC OF PCPN (%).....30  30  30  30  40  40  40  40  70  70  70  70
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.3 1.1 2.0 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.4
20 FT WIND DIR......N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT WIND SPD......6   7   7   8   9   10  10  10  12  12  12  12
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
TRANSP WIND DIR.....N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   NE  NE  NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.....7   9   12  15  17  20  21  21  20  18  17  16
VRATE KT-FT/1000....2   2   3   14  30  49  54  56  57  48  40  33
LVORI...............5   5   5   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI.................8   10  13  20  33  46  49  50  49  44  39  34
HAINES INDEX........4   4   4   3   3   2   2   3   3   3   2   2

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.
MAX HUMIDITY........90 TO 95 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING
                    60 PERCENT AFTER 2000.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 15 TO 17 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............91  91  91  90  90  90  91  91  91  91  91  91
WEATHER COV.........LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE........RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
TSTM COV............
TEMP................69  67  66  65  65  64  64  64  64  63  63  63
RH..................76  81  84  87  87  87  87  87  87  90  90  90
CHC OF PCPN (%).....70  70  60  60  60  60  60  60  60  60  60  60
MIX HGT (KFT).......1.7 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
20 FT WIND DIR......NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT WIND SPD......10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
TRANSP WIND DIR.....NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N   N   N   N
TRANSP WIND SPD.....16  16  16  16  17  17  16  16  15  15  15  15
VRATE KT-FT/1000....23  14  4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3
LVORI...............3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5
ADI.................17  14  14  15  15  15  15  14  13  13  13  13
HAINES INDEX........2   3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF RAIN
                    UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72 TO 75.
MIN HUMIDITY........55 TO 60 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....NORTH WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT IN THE MORNING...DECREASING TO
                    20 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 10 TO 14 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............91  91  91  89  89  89  86  86  86  82  82  82
WEATHER COV.........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE........RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
TSTM COV............
TEMP................62  63  64  65  67  69  70  71  72  72  73  71
RH..................93  87  84  81  75  70  68  66  64  64  62  66
CHC OF PCPN (%).....30  30  30  30  30  30  30  20  20  20  20  20
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8
20 FT WIND DIR......N   NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT WIND SPD......9   9   8   8   9   9   9   10  10  9   9   8
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  10
TRANSP WIND DIR.....N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
TRANSP WIND SPD.....14  14  13  12  10  10  10  12  12  12  13  13
VRATE KT-FT/1000....3   3   3   5   8   10  11  14  16  18  19  20
LVORI...............5   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   2   2   2   3
ADI.................16  15  14  13  12  14  15  18  20  21  22  23
HAINES INDEX........2   2   2   2   3   3   3   4   4   4   3   3



FORECASTER...DEROSA
REQUESTED BY...STEPHEN PAULL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140924.COLDH.03/AKQ








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