Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FNUS71 KAKQ 221512 CCA
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for GEWA Pile...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1112 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on June 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Warm and muggy today through the weekend. Dry conditions today as
clouds scatter out this morning but begin to increase and thicken
this afternoon. Showers and storms with moderate to heavy
rainfall into the area from the southwest late tonight into Friday
morning...before showers and thunderstorms develop by Friday
afternoon and persist into Friday evening. A brief break is then
anticipated Friday night. The remnants of TS Cindy arrive just
ahead of a cold front Saturday morning, which will slowly push
east-southeast and exit the Northeast North Carolina Coast by
Sunday morning. Once again, moderate to heavy rainfall is expected
with the front on Saturday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 91.
Min humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds, becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph
                    early in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Mixing height.......2100-3800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 14 mph.  and

TIME (EDT)          11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).............44  50  55  60  62  64  66
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Temp................84  85  87  88  89  90  90
RH..................64  60  56  53  50  48  46
20 FT wind dir......W   SW  SW  S   S   SW  SW
20 FT wind spd......2   2   3   4   5   6   6
20 FT wind gust.....5   5   5   10  10  15  15
Mix hgt (kft).......2.1 2.6 3.0 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8
Transp wind dir.....W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.....7   8   9   10  12  13  14
LVORI...............2   2   2   1   1   1   1
ADI.................18  23  29  36  30  34  37
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   0   0   0   0   10  10
VRate kt-ft/1000....12  17  24  32  36  41  46

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Showers likely
                    late.
Min temperature.....Around 74.
Max humidity........87 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 8 mph.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Mixing height.......1000-2900 ft AGL, decreasing to 300-800 ft AGL and
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 18 mph, becoming west around 22
                    mph late.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).............64  63  61  60  59  57  60  62  64  84  85  87
Weather cov.........                                        LKY LKY
Weather type........                                        RW  RW
Tstm cov............
Temp................87  86  85  82  80  79  78  77  77  76  76  75
RH..................51  52  54  69  74  77  79  82  82  85  85  87
20 FT wind dir......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd......6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   6
20 FT wind gust.....15  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  15
Mix hgt (kft).......2.9 1.9 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W
Transp wind spd.....15  16  16  17  17  17  15  12  10  14  18  22
LVORI...............1   2   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
ADI.................35  10  11  11  12  12  10  8   7   12  17  20
Chc of pcpn (%).....10  10  0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10  60  60
VRate kt-ft/1000....37  26  14  13  10  8   5   4   3   3   4   5

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Showers likely
                    and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the
                    morning, then a chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 14 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms until late
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Mixing height.......300-2200 ft AGL, increasing to 2500-3800 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 13 to 22 mph, increasing to 24 to 26
                    mph early in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).............90     96     93     88     81     77
Weather cov.........LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov............S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
Temp................75     77     80     83     85     86
RH..................87     82     74     70     67     65
20 ft wind..........SW 6   SW 6   SW 7   SW 9   SW 10  SW 10
20 ft wind gust.....15     15     15     20     20     20
Mix hgt (ft)........300    400    1600   2500   3100   3600
Transport wind......SW 20  S 13   SW 14  SW 18  SW 24  SW 26
LVORI...............4      4      3      1      1      1
ADI.................18     14     24     41     58     69
Chc of pcpn (%).....60     60     60     30     50     50
VRate kt-ft/1000....5      5      20     41     65     82

$$
Forecaster...MONTEFUSCO
Requested by...matt way
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1711272.0/AKQ
.EMAIL matt_way@nps.gov



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