Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FNUS74 KAMA 160744
FWSAMA

Spot Forecast FOR JA BLACK...JA RANCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Amarillo TX
144 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CST on February 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Generally clear skies are expected at the burn site today through
Friday with only some high level cloudiness possible. No
precipitation is expected through Friday at the burn site and
20 foot winds will be light 5 to 15 mph or less and mainly from
the southwest and south. No major wind shifts are expected at
the burn site through Friday.

.TODAY...

Smoke dispersal.....Poor /9000 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    /45500 knot-ft/ increasing to fair to good
                    (13500-54000 knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Temperature.........47 at ignition...Max 71.
LAL.................1.
RH..................49 percent at ignition...Min 20 percent.
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Transport winds.....South 8 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL at ignition, otherwise 0-1000 ft
                    AGL increasing to 2000-3500 ft AGL late in the
                    morning, then increasing to 3000-4500 ft AGL
                    late in the afternoon decreasing to 1500 ft AGL
                    late in the afternoon.
20-foot winds.......Winds west at 10 mph at ignition, otherwise
                    Southwest winds 9 to 14 mph.
Haines Index........5 OR moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Chance of Pcpn......0 percent.

Time (CST)      10 AM  Noon   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR
Weather Cov.....
Weather Type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Temp............47     61     69     71
RH..............49     31     22     21
20 Ft Wind......W 10   SW 12  SW 13  SW 13
20 Ft Wind Gust.15     15     20     20
Chc of Pcpn (%).0      0      0      0
Haines Index....5      5      5      5
VentR KtFt/1000.9      30     46     33

.TONIGHT...

Smoke dispersal.....Poor to poor (0-3500 knot-ft).
Temperature.........Min 37.
LAL.................1.
RH..................Max 73 percent.
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......0-500 ft AGL.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 7 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........5 OR moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Chance of Pcpn......0 percent.

Time (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  Midngt 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR
Weather Cov.....
Weather Type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Temp............65     54     49     46     42     40
RH..............27     41     50     53     60     64
20 Ft Wind......S 10   S 9    S 8    S 7    SW 8   SW 9
20 Ft Wind Gust.15     10     10     10     10     10
Chc of Pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
Haines Index....5      5      5      5      5      5
VentR KtFt/1000.4      0      0      0      0      0

.FRIDAY...

Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (0-42000 knot-ft) increasing to
                    good to excellent (36000-84000 knot-ft) early
                    in the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 72.
LAL.................1.
RH..................Min 22 percent.
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Transport winds.....Southwest 2 to 8 mph shifting to the south 10
                    to 16 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......0-1500 ft AGL increasing to 2000-3500 ft AGL
                    early in the afternoon, then increasing to
                    4500-6000 ft AGL early in the afternoon
                    decreasing to 4000 ft AGL late in the
                    afternoon.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 6 to 12 mph.
Haines Index........5 OR moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Chance of Pcpn......0 percent.

Time (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  Noon   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR CLEAR  CLEAR
Weather Cov.....
Weather Type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Temp............38     38     51     63     71     72
RH..............70     73     46     31     23     22
20 Ft Wind......SW 10  S 7    S 7    S 9    S 10   S 10
20 Ft Wind Gust.15     10     10     10     15     15
Chc of Pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
Haines Index....5      5      5      5      5      5
VentR KtFt/1000.0      0      4      20     63     60

$$
Forecaster...Schneider
Requested by...ANDREW BIVINS
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702222.0/AMA



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