Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FNUS74 KAMA 192011
FWSAMA

Spot Forecast for Borger P66 Unit...Borger OEM
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
211 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CST on November 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (806) 335-1421, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

A weak disturbance aloft will traverse the area on Monday. This will push
a weak surface boundary into the northern Texas Panhandle which will keep
southwest to west winds fairly light near Borger at 5-10 mph. Temperatures
will warm into the 70s with a dry airmass remaining in place. Thus, min RH
values will drop into the 15-20 percent range Monday afternoon. Light
transport winds and a strong morning inversion will result in poor smoke
dispersal most of the day Monday. A cold front is expected to move through
Borger sometime between 10PM Monday night and 2AM Tuesday morning. Winds
will will shift to the north and increase to 15-25 mph with higher gusts
along and behind the cold front.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........14 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest to west winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......500-2000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 16 mph shifting to the south
                    around 6 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  MCLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1
Temp............38     52     62     68     68
RH..............48     29     19     15     15
20 ft wind......SW 10  SW 9   W 7    SW 6   SW 5
20 ft wind gust.15     12     9      8      7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5    0.5    1.0    1.5    1.5
Transp wind dir.SW     SW     SW     SW     S
Transp wind spd.16     14     8      7      6
Haines index....5      5      5      5      5
VRate kt-ft/10007      6      7      9      8

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 37.
Max humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Becoming northwest 15 to 20 mph after midnight.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 5 mph shifting to the northwest 20
                    to 25 mph late in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 5 OR or low potential to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............62     55     51     49     44     42
RH..............19     24     28     30     35     36
20 ft wind......S 5    S 5    SW 6   W 6    NW 7   NW 7
20 ft wind gust.6      7      8      8      9      9
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1
Transp wind dir.S      S      S      W      NW     NW
Transp wind spd.5      5      5      6      7      7
Haines index....5      5      5      4      4      4
VRate kt-ft/10000      0      0      0      0      0

$$
Forecaster...Ward
Requested by...Jason Whisler
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1718999.0/AMA


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