Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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677
FNUS73 KAPX 121216
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Kneff Lake Piles...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
716 AM EST Tue Dec 12 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EST on December 12.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989) 732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Very cold air and gusty NW winds will prevail at
the burn site through the day with below zero wind chill readings
through the day and into tonight. Sustained winds of 12 to 18 mph
will be common with gusts of 20 to 25 mph.

In addition...scattered lake effect snow showers can be expected
as well...while the bulk of lake effect snows will be found along
and west of I-75 well west of the burn site.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Numerous snow showers
                    early in the morning, then scattered snow
                    showers. Patchy blowing snow early in the
                    afternoon.
Temperature.........10 at ignition...Max 12.
RH..................73 percent at ignition...Min 63 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northwest at 13 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Northwest winds 10 to 13
                    mph with occasional gusts up to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......4800 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 4400-5100
                    ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 31 to 39 mph.
Vent rate...........Excellent /1800 at ignition. Max...excellent
                    /1900/.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (EST)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........88  90  91  91  91  92  91  90  90  90
Weather cov.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
Weather type....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Tstm cov........
Temp............10  10  10  10  10  11  11  10  10  10
RH..............73  73  73  69  69  63  66  69  69  69
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..13  13  13  13  13  13  13  12  12  10
20 FT wind gust.20  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  20
Mix hgt (kft)...4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.4
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.37  37  36  35  35  33  33  33  32  31
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRate/100.......18  18  18  18  17  17  16  16  15  14

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Scattered snow
                    showers early in the evening, then isolated
                    snow showers early in the evening.
Temperature.........Min 1.
RH..................Max 100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 9 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph
                    early in the evening.
Mixing height.......2500-4000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 20 to 29 mph decreasing to 12 to 18
                    mph after midnight.
Vent rate...........Good to excellent (300-1200).
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........90  90  90  90  91  89  88  87  86  85  84  76
Weather cov.....SCT SCT ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
Weather type....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Tstm cov........
Temp............10  9   8   8   7   7   6   6   5   5   4   3
RH..............69  72  76  72  79  79  83  83  87  83  87  91
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..9   8   8   8   7   6   6   6   6   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.20  15  15  15  15  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...4.0 3.7 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.5
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.29  28  26  24  23  22  21  20  18  16  14  12
Haines index....3   3   4   4   5   5   4   3   3   3   3   3
VRate/100.......12  10  9   8   7   7   6   6   5   4   4   3

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent).
Temperature.........Max 16.
RH..................Min 61 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......2300-3300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 1 to 9 mph.
Vent rate...........Poor to good (0-300).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........69     64     69     74     76     75
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............1      3      8      13     16     16
RH..............100    91     79     70     61     61
20 ft wind......NW 4   N 3    NE 3   NE 3   NE 3   NE 4
20 ft wind gust.5      5      5      5      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....2300   2300   2600   3000   3300   3200
Transport wind..NW 9   N 5    NE 2   E 1    E 3    NE 7
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      4
VRate/100.......2      1      1      1      1      2

$$
Forecaster...Mike Boguth
Requested by...Travis Wiltse
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1719866.0/APX



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