Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS73 KAPX 231326
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR EXTENSTION...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
926 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON APRIL 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVERHEAD TODAY...BRINGING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS. INCREASED MIXING SHOULD
FORCE A RATHER RAPID RH REDUCTION TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME LAKE
MICHIGAN MODIFICATION WILL KEEP VALUES A TOUCH MORE ELEVATED THAN
FURTHER INLAND. STILL...WOULD EXPECT RH VALUES TO FALL TO THE
UPPER 20S THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DECENT RH RECOVERY EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING. LIGHT
NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN SPEED AND BACK NORTHWESTERLY
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS...ALTHOUGH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON. WINDS GO CALM
QUICKLY THIS EVENING ONCE THE SUN SETS. ANY RAIN WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL THURSDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........47 AT IGNITION...MAX 52.
RH..................35 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 29 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTH AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 7 TO 13 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3800 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 3800-4700 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (400) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (400).

TIME (EDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........1   1   8   22  29
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............47  49  50  51  51
RH..............35  33  30  29  29
20 FT WIND DIR..N   N   N   NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD..5   5   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   5
SMOKE DISP......400 300 300 300 300

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 33.
RH..................MAX 66 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 7 TO 9 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 100-300 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........MIN 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN FAIR(200).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........28  27  27  29  34  36  39  45  48  50  54  56
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............50  49  47  44  41  38  37  36  36  35  34  34
RH..............31  36  40  47  52  59  61  64  64  66  66  66
20 FT WIND DIR..NW  NW  N   N   NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   SE
20 FT WIND SPD..5   4   3   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   1
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  5   5
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5
SMOKE DISP......300 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200

$$
FORECASTER...MIKE BOGUTH
REQUESTED BY...JOE RASPOTNIK
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140423.EXTEN.01/APX






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