Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FNUS75 KBOU 011648
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR LONGS PEAK SARS...ROCKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1048 AM MDT SAT OCT 1 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1034 MDT ON OCTOBER 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...GENERALLY MILD AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
TODAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT RAIN, AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A PASSING THUNDERSTORM.
CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOPS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT MOST OF THE TIME, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING A BRIEF
GUST TO 20-25 MPH WITH A PASSING SHOWER.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 1400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY(60-65%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1100 UNTIL 1300...THEN
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 48.
MIN HUMIDITY........44%.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    WEST 6-8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1100.
CWR.................5 PERCENT INCREASING TO 15 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(60-65%) UNTIL 2000...THEN PARTLY
                    CLOUDY(40-50%). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...SNOW
                    SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 33.
MAX HUMIDITY........79%.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100.
CWR.................10 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT LATE IN THE
                    EVENING.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 48.
MIN HUMIDITY........46%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6-9 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    SOUTHEAST 9-12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1200.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS AROUND 50. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 12-18 MPH.
.TUESDAY...COLDER...BREEZY. PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEST
WINDS 19-28 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS 12-17 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID
40S.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR LONGS PEAK SARS.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

10/01-10 37  6  1 37 79   CALM  1 2 1 WSW 10  4270 WSW  7 26875 P
10/01-11 55 14  3 41 65  NW  3  3 3 2 WSW 12  5305 WSW  9 40081  F
10/01-12 57 21  4 44 55   W  6  6 3 3   W 13  6339   W 10 55900  F
10/01-13 59 28  8 48 44  SW  8 13 3 4   W 13  6912   W 12 68053   G
10/01-14 61 34 13 48 44 WSW  8 13 2 4   W 14  7484   W 13 81383   G
10/01-15 62 32 11 48 44 WSW  9 15 2 4   W 15  8057   W 14 95891   G
10/01-16 62 29  8 47 47   W  9 15 2 4   W 15  7787   W 14 91610   G
10/01-17 62 29  8 47 49 WSW  9 15 2 4   W 15  7517   W 14 87404   G
10/01-18 62 30  9 45 55   W  9 15 2 2   W 15  7247   W 13 83272   G
10/01-19 63 30  9 43 60   W  8 13 2 2   W 12  6246   W 12 60831   G
10/01-20 59 30  9 41 62   W  8 13 2 2 WNW  9  5245   W  9 41897  F
10/01-21 56 25  5 39 67   W  8 13 2 1 WNW  6  4244   W  7 26469 P
10/01-22 51 21  4 37 73   W  9 15 2 1   W  6  3798   W  7 22657 P
10/01-23 46 12  2 37 76   W  9 15 2 1   W  6  3351   W  7 19086 P
10/02-00 40  3  1 36 79   W 10 16 2 1 WSW  7  2904 WSW  6 15757 P
10/02-01 35  3  1 36 75   W 10 16 2 1 WSW  7  2635 WSW  7 15362 P
10/02-02 35  3  1 35 75   W 10 16 2 1  SW  8  2366  SW  7 14750 P
10/02-03 35  3  1 35 75   W 10 16 2 1  SW  9  2097  SW  8 13920 P
10/02-04 35  3  1 34 75   W 10 16 2 1  SW  9  2146  SW  8 14789 P
10/02-05 35  3  1 33 75   W 10 16 2 1  SW  9  2195  SW  8 15682 P
10/02-06 38  5  1 35 69   W 10 16 2 1  SW  9  2244  SW  8 16600 P
10/02-07 38  5  1 36 67   W  9 15 3 1  SW 10  2899  SW  9 22028 P
10/02-08 38  5  1 37 64 WSW  8 13 3 1  SW 10  3554  SW  9 27718 P
10/02-09 38  5  1 39 59 WSW  8 13 4 1 SSW 12  4209 SSW  9 35690 P
10/02-10 38  5  1 42 53 SSW  7  7 4 1 SSW 13  4832 SSW 10 45786  F
10/02-11 38  5  1 44 51   S  8 13 3 1 SSW 14  5455 SSW 12 57121  F
10/02-12 65 14  3 46 47 SSE 10 16 3 2 SSW 16  6079 SSW 13 69698   G
10/02-13 65 14  3 47 47 SSE 12 18 3 2  SW 15  6564  SW 14 77995   G
10/02-14 65 14  3 48 46 SSE 13 21 2 2  SW 15  7050  SW 14 86696   G
10/02-15 65 14  3 48 48 SSE 14 22 2 2  SW 14  7535  SW 15 95800   G
10/02-16 65 14  3 47 47  SE 13 21 2 2  SW 15  6986  SW 15 91120   G
10/02-17 65 14  3 46 51  SE 13 21 2 2 SSW 16  6437 SSW 15 86077   G
10/02-18 61 21  4 45 55   S 12 18 2 3   S 17  5887 SSW 16 80673   G
10/02-19 61 21  4 42 62   S 12 18 2 3   S 20  5017   S 17 76494   G
10/02-20 61 21  4 40 67 SSE 13 20 2 3   S 23  4147   S 20 69629   G
10/02-21 61 21  4 38 73 SSE 13 21 2 3   S 26  3277   S 21 60077   G
10/02-22 61 21  4 38 73   S 13 21 2 3   S 28  3193   S 23 62975   G
10/02-23 61 21  4 38 73 SSW 14 22 2 3 SSW 30  3110 SSW 24 65642   G
10/03-00 40 12  2 38 73 SSW 14 22 2 2 SSW 32  3027 SSW 25 68078   G
10/03-01 40 12  2 38 71  SW 15 23 3 2 SSW 31  2881 SSW 24 61054   G
10/03-02 40 12  2 37 72  SW 15 24 4 2 SSW 30  2736 SSW 23 54408  F
10/03-03 40 12  2 36 72  SW 16 25 5 2 SSW 29  2591 SSW 22 48142  F
10/03-04 40 12  2 36 69  SW 17 28 5 2 SSW 26  2488 SSW 23 49277  F
10/03-05 40 12  2 35 69  SW 18 29 5 2 SSW 24  2386  SW 24 50161  F
10/03-06 48 22  4 35 67  SW 18 30 5 3 SSW 22  2283  SW 25 50794  F
10/03-07 48 22  4 37 61  SW 17 28 5 3 SSW 26  2743  SW 30 71174   G
10/03-08 48 22  4 40 54 SSW 16 26 4 3 SSW 31  3203 SSW 35 94956   G
10/03-09 48 22  4 44 47 SSW 16 25 4 3 SSW 36  3663 SSW 38122141    V
10/03-10 48 22  4 47 42 SSW 17 29 4 3 SSW 36  4698 SSW 37152008     E
10/03-11 48 22  4 49 39   S 20 32 3 3 SSW 37  5732 SSW 36179845     E
10/03-12 62 48 24 51 36   S 22 35 3 1 SSW 37  6766 SSW 35205651     E
10/03-13 62 48 24 51 36   S 23 37 3 1  SW 32  7187 SSW 31194175     E
10/03-14 62 48 24 50 37 SSW 23 37 2 1  SW 26  7608 SSW 28179854     E
10/03-15 62 48 24 49 37 SSW 23 37 2 1  SW 22  8029 SSW 23162688     E
10/03-16 62 48 24 48 38 SSW 22 36 2 1  SW 29  7393 SSW 29185408     E
10/03-17 62 48 24 46 40  SW 21 33 2 1 SSW 36  6758 SSW 35202004     E
10/03-18 53 37 15 43 43  SW 20 31 2 1 SSW 44  6122 SSW 40212477     E
10/03-19 53 37 15 39 48 WSW 18 30 3 1 SSW 55  5253 SSW 47212962     E
10/03-20 53 37 15 35 54 WSW 18 30 4 1  SW 68  4384  SW 53203313     E
10/03-21 53 37 15 32 58 WSW 20 31 5 1  SW 81  3516  SW 60183531     E
10/03-22 53 37 15 29 64 WSW 23 37 5 1  SW 77  3371 WSW 60176146     E
10/03-23 53 37 15 28 65 WSW 28 45 5 1 WSW 73  3226 WSW 60168747     E
10/04-00 53 33 12 28 63 WSW 31 49 5 1 WSW 69  3082 WSW 60161334     E
10/04-01 53 33 12 27 64 WSW 30 48 5 1 WSW 61  2832   W 56139988    V
10/04-02 53 33 12 27 63 WSW 29 46 4 1   W 54  2583   W 53120102    V
10/04-03 53 33 12 26 63   W 28 44 4 1   W 46  2333   W 51101675    V
10/04-04 53 33 12 25 60   W 30 48 4 1   W 39  2018   W 47 82992   G
10/04-05 53 33 12 24 56   W 33 54 3 1 WNW 32  1702   W 45 65850   G
10/04-06 50 24  5 23 54   W 36 58 3 1 WNW 25  1386   W 41 50249  F

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...BARJENBRUCH
REQUESTED BY...RANGER ROBERTS
TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR
.TAG 20161001.LONGS.01/BOU



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