Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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402
FNUS75 KBOU 071213
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR MOUNTAIN...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
511 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MST ON FEBRUARY 07.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING BEFORE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
MIX DOWN BY NOON AND LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE WILL LIKELY
LINE UP WELL WITH RUSSELL GULCH...SO THERE MAY BE SOME HIGHER GUSTS
THAN FORECAST. THIS WILL HELP DISPERSION IMPROVE INTO THE FAIR IF
NOT GOOD CATEGORY...ALTHOUGH WINDS ALOFT MAY END UP CONVERGING AND
WEAKEN THE DISPERSION. THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BRING WARMING AND
DRYING CONDITIONS WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 4-7 MPH UNTIL 0800...THEN
                    VARIABLE 3-6 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    NORTHWEST 6-12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 2200-3200
                    FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10-20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 20.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST 6-8 MPH UNTIL 2000...THEN VARIABLE
                    2-5 MPH UNTIL 2300...THEN WEST 6-12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-2200 FT AGL UNTIL 2300...THEN BELOW 1000
                    FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 48.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST 4-10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700...THEN 4000-5000
                    FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15-25 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN 25-30
                    MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. VERY GOOD AFTER 1400.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BEAR MOUNTAIN.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

02/07-04 45  0  0 28 42 WSW 10 17 3 1  NW 35   910 WNW 15 11870 P
02/07-05 21  0  0 24 52  SW  9 15 2 1  NW 39   830 WNW 14  9582 P
02/07-06 21  0  0 22 58 WSW  8 13 3 1  NW 38   812 WNW 13  8686 P
02/07-07 21  0  0 22 59 WSW  7  7 3 1 NNW 36   793 WNW 12  7821 P
02/07-08 21  0  0 24 55 WSW  7  7 4 1 NNW 33   774 WNW 10  6988 P
02/07-09 21  0  0 28 50   W  7  7 4 1 NNW 38  1515 WNW 13 16293 P
02/07-10 21  0  0 32 46  NW  7  7 4 1 NNW 41  2256  NW 14 28158 P
02/07-11 21  0  0 37 40 NNW  7  7 4 1  NW 45  2997  NW 16 42581  F
02/07-12 22  0  0 36 43 NNW  8 13 4 1  NW 46  3055  NW 17 45621  F
02/07-13 23  0  0 38 40 NNW  9 14 3 1  NW 48  3113  NW 18 48745  F
02/07-14 23  1  0 40 37 NNW  9 15 3 1  NW 49  3170  NW 18 51953  F
02/07-15 24  1  0 40 38 NNW  8 14 3 1 NNW 51  2966  NW 17 45612  F
02/07-16 25  1  0 39 39  NW  8  8 3 1 NNW 53  2762  NW 16 39684 P
02/07-17 25  1  0 35 45 WNW  7  7 3 1 NNW 54  2558  NW 15 34168 P
02/07-18 23  1  0 32 49 WNW  7  7 3 1 NNW 55  2158  NW 14 25616 P
02/07-19 22  1  0 30 50   W  8  8 2 1 NNW 58  1757  NW 12 18253 P
02/07-20 20  1  0 27 53   W  8 13 2 1 NNW 59  1356  NW 10 12077 P
02/07-21 18  1  0 26 52   W  8 13 2 1 NNW 63  1176  NW 10 11100 P
02/07-22 16  1  0 24 54   W  8 13 2 1 NNW 67   996  NW 12  9931 P
02/07-23 15  0  0 24 52   W  8 13 2 1 NNW 71   815 WNW 13  8569 P
02/08-00 16  0  0 24 50   W  8 14 2 1 NNW 68   828  NW 13  9224 P
02/08-01 18  0  0 22 53 WSW  9 14 2 1 NNW 64   840  NW 14  9894 P
02/08-02 20  0  0 21 54 WSW  9 15 2 1 NNW 61   852  NW 14 10579 P
02/08-03 22  0  0 21 53 WSW  9 15 2 1 NNW 61   851  NW 15 10906 P
02/08-04 23  0  0 21 52 WSW  8 14 2 1 NNW 61   851  NW 16 11586 P
02/08-05 25  0  0 21 52 WSW  8 13 2 1 NNW 60   850  NW 16 12266 P
02/08-06 25  0  0 20 55   W  8 13 2 1 NNW 60   927  NW 17 14221 P
02/08-07 26  0  0 20 57   W  7  7 3 1 NNW 61  1003 NNW 18 16316 P
02/08-08 27  0  0 21 59 WNW  7  7 3 1 NNW 61  1080 NNW 20 18552 P
02/08-09 28  0  0 27 52 WNW  7  7 3 1 NNW 55  1674 NNW 21 30783 P
02/08-10 28  0  0 35 44  NW  6  6 2 1 NNW 49  2268 NNW 23 44450  F
02/08-11 29  0  0 40 41  NW  6  6 2 1 NNW 44  2862 NNW 24 59553  F
02/08-12 28  0  0 43 39 NNW  6  6 2 1 NNW 44  3676 NNW 26 83608   G
02/08-13 27  0  0 46 36 NNW  6  6 2 1 NNW 43  4490 NNW 29110816    V
02/08-14 26  0  0 48 34 NNW  6  6 2 1 NNW 41  5304 NNW 31141176    V
02/08-15 24  0  0 48 34 NNW  6  6 2 1 NNW 43  5146 NNW 31136820    V
02/08-16 23  0  0 47 35  NW  7  7 2 1 NNW 44  4988 NNW 31132475    V
02/08-17 22  0  0 43 39 WNW  7  7 2 1   N 46  4830   N 31128138    V
02/08-18 21  0  0 40 44 WNW  7  7 2 1 NNW 48  3780 NNW 26 86630   G
02/08-19 19  0  0 38 47   W  8 13 2 1 NNW 52  2730 NNW 22 52706  F
02/08-20 18  0  0 35 52   W  8 13 2 1 NNW 55  1680 NNW 18 26366 P
02/08-21 16  0  0 33 55   W  8 13 2 1 NNW 54  1565 NNW 17 22991 P
02/08-22 15  0  0 32 55   W  8 13 2 1 NNW 54  1451 NNW 16 19846 P
02/08-23 13  0  0 32 53   W  8 13 2 1 NNW 54  1337 NNW 15 16933 P
02/09-00 13  0  0 31 54   W  8 14 2 1 NNW 49  1470  NW 15 18601 P
02/09-01 12  0  0 31 52   W  9 14 2 1   N 46  1604  NW 15 20266 P
02/09-02 11  0  0 31 51   W  9 15 2 1   N 43  1737 WNW 15 21928 P
02/09-03 10  0  0 29 54   W  9 15 2 1 NNW 39  1885 WNW 15 24017 P
02/09-04  9  0  0 29 53   W 10 16 3 1 NNW 36  2032 WNW 15 26141 P
02/09-05  9  0  0 29 53   W 10 16 3 1 NNW 32  2180 WNW 15 28301 P
02/09-06  9  0  0 28 55   W 10 17 4 1 NNW 36  2020 WNW 15 25559 P
02/09-07  9  0  0 28 56   W 10 17 4 1 NNW 39  1861 WNW 14 22922 P
02/09-08  9  0  0 29 55   W 10 16 5 1 NNW 43  1701 WNW 14 20392 P
02/09-09  9  0  0 34 48   W  9 15 5 1 NNW 44  2366  NW 16 32073 P
02/09-10  9  0  0 41 39   W  8 13 4 1 NNW 45  3031 NNW 17 45840  F
02/09-11  9  0  0 46 34   W  7  7 4 1 NNW 45  3696 NNW 20 61692   G
02/09-12  9  0  0 49 31   W  6  6 4 1 NNW 46  4402   N 21 79000   G
02/09-13  9  0  0 51 29  NW  5  5 4 1 NNW 46  5109   N 22 98081   G
02/09-14  9  0  0 53 27  NW  5  5 4 1 NNW 46  5815   N 23118933    V
02/09-15  9  0  0 53 27  NW  5  5 4 1   N 46  5160 NNW 23101759    V
02/09-16  9  0  0 52 27 WNW  5  5 5 1   N 46  4505 NNW 22 85546   G
02/09-17 16  0  0 49 29 WNW  5  5 5 1   N 46  3851 NNW 21 70292   G
02/09-18 16  0  0 46 32   W  6  6 5 1   N 45  3141 NNW 18 50867  F
02/09-19 16  0  0 43 34   W  7  7 5 1   N 43  2431  NW 16 34364 P
02/09-20 16  0  0 40 37   W  8 13 5 1 NNW 41  1720  NW 14 20784 P
02/09-21 16  0  0 39 37   W  8 14 5 1   N 41  1481  NW 12 15377 P
02/09-22 16  0  0 38 36   W  8 13 5 1   N 41  1242 WNW 10 10783 P
02/09-23 10  0  0 38 34 WSW  8 13 5 1   N 40  1002 WNW  8  7003 P
02/10-00 10  0  0 37 34 WSW  8 13 5 1   N 39  1109 WNW  8  8006 P
02/10-01 10  0  0 37 33 WSW  8 14 5 1 NNW 38  1216 WNW  8  9060 P
02/10-02 10  0  0 37 33 WSW  8 14 5 1 NNW 37  1323   W  9 10163 P
02/10-03 10  0  0 35 35 WSW  9 14 5 1 NNW 37  1650   W 10 14618 P
02/10-04 10  0  0 35 36 WSW  9 14 5 1 NNW 36  1978 WNW 12 19843 P
02/10-05  4  1  0 35 36 WSW  9 15 5 1 NNW 36  2305 WNW 13 25837 P

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...KRIEDERMAN
REQUESTED BY...CRAIG BROWN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160207.BEARM.01/BOU



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