Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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105
FNUS71 KCTP 251153
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR SAW TRAINING...PA DCNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
753 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0805 EDT ON MAY 25.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...

DEWPOINTS ARE STILL RATHER LOW AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND 80S TODAY. THUS...RH/S WILL DIP INTO THE 30S
THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE WEST BUT SHOULD
BE LESS THAN 10 MPH. THE HUMIDITY WILL RISE FOR EACH OF THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS SHOULD THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.
MIN HUMIDITY........31 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1500 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5000-6200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............10  10  10  5   5   5   2   2   2   3
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................67  68  70  72  74  76  78  78  79  79
RH..................51  49  47  43  40  36  33  33  31  31
20 FT WIND DIR......W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD......7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   8   8
20 FT WIND GUST.....        10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.1 1.5 3.5 5.2 5.9 6.2 6.1 6.1 5.8 5.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....3   6   8   9   10  9   9   9   10  10
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........5   5   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.
MAX HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH UNTIL EARLY
                    MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-3300 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 0 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 2 TO 9 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............3   3   6   6   6   7   7   7   21  21  21  50
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................78  76  76  73  71  69  67  67  66  65  65  65
RH..................35  39  42  48  51  55  59  61  63  68  68  70
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W
20 FT WIND SPD......7   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   3   3   3
20 FT WIND GUST.....10                                  5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......3.3 1.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....9   6   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........5   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82.
MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5
                    TO 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1300...THEN 9-15 STRIKES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1500 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5700-6300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 1 TO 8 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............50  50  66  66  66  72  72  72  59  59  59  71
WEATHER COV.........                            SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE........                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                            SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
TEMP................65  66  67  69  72  75  77  79  80  80  81  80
RH..................68  65  63  61  57  55  52  50  51  49  47  47
20 FT WIND DIR......W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S
20 FT WIND SPD......2   2   2   2   2   2   3   5   6   6   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.....            5   5   5   5           10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.1 0.1 0.1 1.5 3.5 5.1 5.7 5.9 5.8 6.2 6.3 5.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....2   1   1   3   5   7   7   7   7   8   8   8
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   2   3   4   4   4   4
HAINES INDEX........4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

$$
FORECASTER...WFO CTP/LAMBERT
REQUESTED BY...SHAWN TURNER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160525.SAWTR.01/CTP



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