Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FNUS71 KCTP 170915
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for PennCarbose EPA/EMA Hazmat Clean-Up...Somerset County EMA
National Weather Service State College PA
515 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Forecast is based on incident time of 0500 EDT on August 17.

If conditions become unrepresentative...
contact the National Weather Service in State College.

.DISCUSSION...
Warm and increasingly humid air will surge into the district
from the southwest this afternoon and tonight as a warm front
draped east to west across the Central Appalachians and Ohio
River Valley lifts north across Pennsylvania.

Expect showers and thunderstorms, some with locally heavy rain
and frequent lightning to spread in from the southwest late
today, and become more frequent tonight into early Friday
morning.

An approaching cold front will spark more thunderstorms during
the day Friday, especially across the eastern half of the state
where some may become strong to severe. Cooler and drier should
improve our weekend weather. A ridge builds in early next week
and we should warm up before another northern stream cold front
triggers showers again and ushers in cooler drier around
mid-week.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms late in the
                    morning. A chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    early in the afternoon...then showers and
                    thunderstorms likely late.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........69 percent.
Surface winds.......Light and variable winds...becoming south
                    around 5 mph late in the morning.
Mixing height.......0-1200 ft AGL...increasing to 4900-5900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 2 to 10 mph.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........33  39  42  42  42  42  42  42  42  43  47  65
Weather cov.....                    SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY
Weather type....                    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                    SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   10  10  10  20  20  20  40  40  40  70
Temp............62  62  63  67  71  74  76  77  79  79  80  80
RH..............90  93  93  87  81  76  74  71  69  72  69  72
Surface wnd dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Surface wnd spd.2   2   2   3   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Surface wnd gst.5   5   5   5   5   10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 0.2 1.2 2.5 3.6 4.4 4.9 5.2 5.7 5.9 5.5
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW
Transp wind spd.2   2   2   3   6   8   9   9   9   9   10  10

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Thunderstorms
                    likely early in the evening. Showers. Scattered
                    thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 65.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Surface winds.......Light and variable winds...becoming southwest
                    around 5 mph late.
Mixing height.......2100-4000 ft AGL...decreasing to 0-800 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 14 mph.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........65  74  91  91  91  91  91  91  89  89  89  89
Weather cov.....LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........LKY LKY SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).70  70  80  80  80  80  80  80  70  70  70  70
Temp............78  75  73  72  70  69  69  68  68  68  67  67
RH..............76  82  87  90  97  100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Surface wnd dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Surface wnd spd.4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   5
Surface wnd gst.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   10
Mix hgt (kft)...4.0 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.10  10  9   8   7   7   7   7   8   10  12  14

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Showers likely
                    and scattered thunderstorms in the
                    morning...then scattered thunderstorms and a
                    chance of showers in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........71 percent.
Surface winds.......West winds 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......1000-2900 ft AGL...increasing to 3800-5000 ft
                    AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 21 mph.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........89  89  83  83  83  83  83  83  63  63  63  63
Weather cov.....LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
Chc of pcpn (%).70  70  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40
Temp............67  68  68  70  71  73  74  76  77  77  77  77
RH..............100 100 100 97  97  93  87  82  76  74  74  71
Surface wnd dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W
Surface wnd spd.5   5   5   6   6   6   7   7   8   8   8   8
Surface wnd gst.10  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.9 3.8 4.5 4.9 5.0 4.9
Transp wind dir.SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.15  15  15  15  15  15  17  20  21  21  20  20

$$
Forecaster...WFO-CTP/Lambert
Requested by...Joel Landis
Type of request...HAZMAT
.TAG 1714494.0/CTP
.EMAIL landisj@co.somerset.pa.us



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