Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FNUS71 KCTP 301311
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR OLA WILDFIRE TRAININING...PA BUREAU OF FORESTRY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
911 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0827 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY LOOKS DRY BEFORE A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
IT SHOULD TURN BREEZY AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENY FOREST.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
                    SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MIN HUMIDITY........62 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH
                    AROUND 5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1400...THEN 16-25 STRIKES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1400 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2500-3600 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO
                    4900-6600 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING
                    TO 4400 FT AGL LATE.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 0 TO 6 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............25  25  25  25  30  35  48  73  85  85  84  83
WEATHER COV.........                        SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY
WEATHER TYPE........                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                                CHC CHC CHC CHC
TEMP................50  50  52  54  57  62  65  68  67  68  69  68
RH..................100 100 99  100 100 86  77  69  68  69  62  63
20 FT WIND DIR......N   E   E   E   SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......3   2   2   2   3   3   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.1 0.1 0.2 1.4 2.5 3.6 4.9 6.0 6.6 6.2 5.3 4.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.....NW  W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.....1   0   0   1   2   3   5   6   6   6   5   5
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   2   3   4   5   5   5
HAINES INDEX........2   2   2   2   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING EAST 6 TO 8
                    MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY
                    MORNING.
LAL.................16-25 STRIKES UNTIL 1900...THEN >25 STRIKES
                    UNTIL 2300...THEN 16-25 STRIKES UNTIL
                    2400...THEN 9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 0100...THEN 1-8
                    STRIKES UNTIL 0200...THEN NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100-4200 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 200-300 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 1 TO 9 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............84  87  88  89  92  93  93  93  93  93  93  93
WEATHER COV.........LKY LKY LKY                     CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW                      RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC
TEMP................68  67  64  63  61  60  59  58  56  55  54  54
RH..................65  68  76  82  87  91  94  96  98  100 100 100
20 FT WIND DIR......S   E   NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD......3   3   3   3   6   7   8   8   8   7   7   6
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5   5   5   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......4.2 4.1 3.8 3.1 2.2 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  E   E
TRANSP WIND SPD.....6   8   9   9   7   6   5   3   2   1   1   1
LAL.................5   5   5   5   5   4   3   2   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.
MIN HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN
                    BECOMING EAST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4600-5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 1 TO 2 MPH...BECOMING EAST 3 TO 5 MPH
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............93  93  66  66  66  66  66  66  51  51  51  51
WEATHER COV.........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............
TEMP................53  52  55  57  59  61  62  63  64  65  65  65
RH..................98  100 93  89  85  82  78  75  72  71  71  70
20 FT WIND DIR......E   NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD......6   5   5   3   3   3   3   3   5   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.....            5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.6 3.6 4.6 5.2 5.4 5.3 4.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.....NE  N   N   NE  E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E
TRANSP WIND SPD.....1   1   1   2   3   5   5   3   3   3   3   3
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........4   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4

$$
FORECASTER...WFO CTP/GARTNER
REQUESTED BY...JOE MILLER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20140930.OLAWI.01/CTP



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