Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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837
FNUS74 KFWD 271552
FWSFWD

Spot Forecast for The Mound Burn...Flower Mound Fire Department
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
952 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CST on February 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
A stationary cold front just to our north will lift north to the
Red River by early afternoon. After the overcast conditions with
fog this morning, there will be some breaks in the clouds this
afternoon. Southeast winds around 10 mph this morning will become
south 15 to 20 mph this afternoon. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon. Hail larger than one
inch will be possible with some of the storms.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers in the morning, then chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 76.
Min humidity........60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 14 mph. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......400-2200 ft AGL increasing to 3100-4900 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 17 mph increasing to 20 to 26 mph
                    late in the morning.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CST)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........94  91  88  85  83  80  78  75
Weather cov.....SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp............64  67  69  71  73  75  76  76
RH..............90  81  78  73  66  62  60  60
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..7   8   10  12  14  14  14  13
20 FT wind gust.10  10  15  20  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.7 2.2 3.1 4.0 4.9 4.1 3.4
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.17  20  21  23  25  26  26  25
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
Min temperature.....Around 64.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 9 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......700-2600 ft AGL decreasing to 100-600 ft AGL in
                    the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....South 16 to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........73  72  71  70  68  67  66  71  77  82  87  92
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp............75  73  70  68  67  67  67  66  65  64  64  65
RH..............62  66  76  81  84  87  87  90  93  97  97  97
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..12  9   9   9   9   9   10  10  10  10  10  9
20 FT wind gust.20  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  10
Mix hgt (kft)...2.6 2.0 1.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.24  22  21  20  20  21  21  21  21  20  18  16
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 8 to 14 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph
                    late in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......100-2000 ft AGL increasing to 2700-4200 ft AGL
                    late in the morning.
Transport winds.....South 15 to 23 mph increasing to 25 to 30 mph
                    late in the morning.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........98  96  95  94  93  92  91  90  89  88  87  86
Weather cov.....                        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp............65  66  67  68  69  71  73  76  79  80  81  81
RH..............97  93  90  87  84  79  73  64  56  52  51  51
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..8   8   9   9   10  12  13  14  14  14  14  14
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  15  20  20  20  25  25  25  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.0 2.7 3.4 3.6 3.9 4.2 3.8 3.4
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.15  16  18  21  23  25  28  29  30  30  30  30
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$
Forecaster...Moore
Requested by...Brandon Barth
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1703002.0/FWD
.EMAIL brandon.barth@flower-mound.com



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