559
FNUS73 KGRR 011851
FWSGRR

Spot Forecast for Deep Lake Woods...MI DNR
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
251 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1600 EDT on May 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (616) 949-5150, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
West winds and good to excellent mixing will continue the next
several hours and begin to settle down after 7 PM with the setting
sun. Given the forested area of this burn, our 20 ft wind speed
forecast may be an overestimate, but occasional stronger gusts
are possible. There may be patches of high altitude clouds moving
through. Area average Haines is on the borderline between 5 and 6.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Temperature.........70 at ignition...Max 73.
RH..................32 percent at ignition...Min 31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 18 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds 12 to 18 mph.
Mixing height.......4300 ft AGL at ignition.
Mixing winds........West 21 to 28 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....1200 /excellent/ at ignition. Max...1200
                    /excellent/.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition.

TIME (EDT)      4 PM   6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM
Sky (%).........18     14     20     24     29     33
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............70     69     66     59     54     52
RH..............32     32     43     57     69     74
20 ft wind......W 18   W 14   W 8    NW 6   NW 3   NW 2
20 ft wind gust.28     23     15     10     7      6
Mix hgt (ft)....4300   3700   1500   500    400    400
Mixing wind.....W 28   W 23   W 15   NW 10  NW 9   N 8
Haines index....6      6      5      5      5      4
Smoke disprsl...1200   860    230    50     40     30

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Temperature.........Min 48.
RH..................Max 80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 8 mph until midnight
                    becoming light, then becoming northeast 5 to 6
                    mph toward daybreak.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 8 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast
                    around 8 mph toward daybreak.
Smoke dispersal.....230 (fair) early in the evening decreasing to
                    30 (poor) late in the night.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the morning, then chance
                    of rain showers.
Temperature.........Max 75.
RH..................Min 46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 6 to 8 mph shifting to the southeast
                    8 to 9 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3000 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........East 8 to 12 mph shifting to the southeast 12
                    to 16 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....30 (poor) early in the morning increasing to
                    350 (good) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Scholten
Requested by...Jeff Vasher
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412950.0/GRR
.DELDT 05/01/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL vasherj@michigan.gov