Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FNUS72 KILM 131248
FWSILM

Spot Forecast for Baytree 1...NC State Parks
National Weather Service WILMINGTON NC
748 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EST on December 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

.DISCUSSION...
Well below normal temperatures and very dry air is expected today as high
pressure builds in from the west. Winds will gust up to 15 mph late this
morning into early afternoon, but will ease as relative humidity falls
below 30 percent this afternoon. A strong low level jet will develop tonight
with winds of 40 mph expect at 1000 feet AGL, so winds will remain elevated
overnight into Thursday.

Warmer temperatures will return Thursday and Friday. Another cold
front will bring chilly temperatures Saturday, before seasonable weather
returns on Sunday. Low pressure approaching from the Gulf Coast may
bring rain to the area early next week.

Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.

Fog potential for tonight...None.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 43.
Min humidity........28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest this morning 6 to 10 mph, becoming southwest 6 to 7 mph.
Max Mixing Hgt......2700 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northwest this morning 12 to 16 mph, becoming southwest 7 to 12 mph.
Max Vent Rate.......33005 mph-ft.
Max LVORI...........2.
Max ADI.............39.

TIME (EST)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........0   1   1   1   1   1   3   5   7   8
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............28  31  34  36  38  40  41  43  42  40
RH..............44  39  34  31  29  27  26  26  28  34
CHC Pcpn (%)....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..6   6   7   7   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.8   10  10  10  10  8   8   7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.2 1.6 1.1
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   SW  SW
Transp wind spd.10  14  16  16  14  13  12  10  10  8
Haines Index....5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VR MPH-FT*1000..6   15  24  30  33  33  31  23  16  9
Stability.......C   C   C   C   C   C   C   C   C   C
LVORI...........2   2   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2
ADI.............7   18  32  38  39  37  34  28  21  12
Aparnt Tmp (F)..21  24  27  29  32  34  36  38  38  35
Sfc pres (in)...995 995 995 995 995 988 988 988 988 988

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 30.
Max humidity........79 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 9 mph.
Min Mixing Hgt......300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 12 mph.
Min Vent Rate.......2415 mph-ft.
Max LVORI...........3.
Min ADI.............3.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........10  12  13  15  16  17  18  20  17  13  10  7
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............36  33  32  32  32  33  33  33  33  33  32  31
RH..............43  55  60  62  63  62  61  61  62  65  69  75
CHC Pcpn (%)....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
20 FT wind dir..SW  S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   7   8   9   9   9   9   9   8
20 FT wind gust.        7   8   10  10  11  12  12  11  11  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.SW  S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.7   7   7   8   9   10  12  12  12  12  12  10
Haines Index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VR MPH-FT*1000..4   3   3   3   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Stability.......F   F   F   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
LVORI...........2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI.............3   3   3   5   6   7   8   8   8   8   7   7
Aparnt Tmp (F)..31  28  25  25  25  25  24  24  24  24  23  22
Sfc pres (in)...988 981 981 981 981 981 981 974 974 974 974 974

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 56.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 8 mph.
Max Mixing Hgt......3200 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 10 mph.
Max Vent Rate.......32544 mph-ft.
Max LVORI...........4.
Max ADI.............34.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........4      6      4      4      4      5
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............30     35     43     50     55     55
RH..............79     79     64     53     45     45
CHC Pcpn (%)....0      0      0      0      0      0
20 ft wind......SW 7   W 8    W 8    W 8    W 8    NW 6
20 ft wind gust.10     12     13     13     12     10
Mix hgt (ft)....300    400    700    2400   3200   2000
Transport wind..SW 9   W 9    W 10   W 10   NW 9   NW 7
Haines Index....4      4      4      4      4      4
VR MPH-FT*1000..2      4      8      25     30     14
Stability.......C      C      C      C      C      C
LVORI...........4      4      3      2      1      2
ADI.............7      7      8      29     30     17
Aparnt Tmp (F)..22     26     38     46     55     55
Sfc pres (in)...29.74  29.79  29.79  29.79  29.81  29.81

$$
Forecaster...Weiss
Requested by...Thomas Crate
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1719909.0/ILM
.EMAIL Thomas.crate@ncparks.gov



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