Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FNUS72 KILM 281009
FWSILM

Spot Forecast for Fort Fisher rx burn...nc state parks
National Weather Service WILMINGTON NC
609 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 EDT on March 28.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

.DISCUSSION...
The risk for showers and perhaps an isolated strong thunderstorm
will occur today ahead of a cold front which will move through
late tonight. Relatively cooler and drier high pressure will build
in from the north late Wednesday into Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected as warmer and more humid air returns Friday ahead
of a cold front which will move offshore early Saturday. Some of the
thunderstorms may be strong to severe Friday and Friday night. The
weekend should be dry as high pressure takes hold. Then early next
week, a southern stream system will again bring the risk for showers
and thunderstorms.

Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.

Fog potential for tonight...Low.

.TODAY...

Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........79 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 13 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the late
                    morning and afternoon.
Max Mixing Hgt......400 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 16 mph.
Max Vent Rate.......5979 mph-ft.

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Temp............66  67  68  68  67  67
RH..............81  80  80  81  82  83
CHC Pcpn (%)....30  30  40  30  30  30
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..9   10  11  12  13  13
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3
Trans Wnd Dir...SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Trans Wnd Spd...12  13  14  15  16  16
VR MPH-FT*1000..4   5   6   6   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 58.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the evening.
Min Mixing Hgt......200 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 15 mph.
Min Vent Rate.......2070 mph-ft.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Temp............66     66     65     63     62     61
RH..............82     79     83     87     88     91
CHC Pcpn (%)....30     20     20     10     0      0
20 ft wind......SW 12  SW 10  SW 9   W 8    W 7    W 6
20 ft wind gust.15     15     10     10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....300    300    200    300    300    300
Transport wind..SW 15  SW 13  SW 12  W 10   W 9    W 8
VR MPH-FT*1000..4      3      3      3      2      2

.WEDNESDAY...

Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........66 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 6 to 9 mph.
Max Mixing Hgt......2800 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northeast 7 to 16 mph...increasing to 20 to 23
                    mph late.
Max Vent Rate.......46460 mph-ft.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Temp............60     59     63     69     70     68
RH..............92     93     82     69     66     71
CHC Pcpn (%)....0      10     10     10     10     10
20 ft wind......NW 6   N 6    N 6    NE 7   NE 7   E 8
20 ft wind gust.10     10     10     10     10     15
Mix hgt (ft)....200    300    800    1900   2800   1500
Transport wind..NW 7   N 8    N 14   N 15   NE 13  NE 20
VR MPH-FT*1000..2      2      15     32     42     46

$$
Forecaster...DiGiorgi
Requested by...Kip Futch
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1705286.0/ILM
.EMAIL kip.futch@ncparks.gov



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