Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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000
FNUS72 KJAX 230915
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR TAYLOR FIRE AM...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
515 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0600 EDT ON JULY 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AT 5 MPH OR LESS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST ON SUNDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 98.
MIN HUMIDITY........39 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4700-6600 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST AROUND 2 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    AROUND 3 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 3 TO 5 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....3 INCREASING TO 32.
LVORI...............6.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........26     28     27     30     36     42
WEATHER COV.....                            S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........                            S CHC  S CHC
TEMP............71     74     87     95     98     96
RH..............98     97     65     48     39     39
20 FT WIND......SW 2   SW 2   SW 2   SW 2   SE 3   SE 3
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      5      5      5      5
DISPERSION IDX..1      2      11     22     26     30
LVORI...........10     9      3      2      2      1

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2300...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-2200 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 2 TO 5 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....24 DECREASING TO 2.
LVORI...............6.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........46     48     48     48     28     28
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
TEMP............92     86     80     77     75     73
RH..............44     57     72     85     94     97
20 FT WIND......SE 3   SE 5   S 5    S 5    SW 3   SW 2
20 FT WIND GUST.5                           5      5
DISPERSION IDX..24     3      3      3      2      1
LVORI...........2      3      3      5      7      8

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94.
MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4300-6200 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 2 TO 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 3 TO
                    6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....4 INCREASING TO 14 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    INCREASING TO 27 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
                    INCREASING TO 32 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
                    DECREASING TO 18.
LVORI...............6.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........11     23     23     23     58     58
WEATHER COV.....                            CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........                            CHANCE CHANCE
TEMP............72     74     85     91     94     92
RH..............100    100    67     54     47     47
20 FT WIND......SW 2   SW 2   SW 2   S 2    SE 3   SE 5
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      5      5      5
DISPERSION IDX..1      2      7      16     31     30
LVORI...........10     8      3      2      1      1

$$
FORECASTER...KENNEDY
REQUESTED BY...DREW PAGE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20160723.TAYLO.01/JAX



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