Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1
000
FNUS73 KLMK 181049
FWSLMK

Spot Forecast for tract 3 prescribed burn...Department of Defense
National Weather Service Louisville, KY
649 AM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 CDT on April 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...The next few hours look mainly dry. There could be
some sprinkles or a light shower this morning, but the better
chance for rain is this afternoon. Scattered showers and storms
are expected to develop and move through the Madison County area
this afternoon, mainly after 1 PM EDT.

Transport winds will initially be out of the east this morning,
becoming southeast by late morning. Transport winds will be in the
10-15 mph range. Dispersion looks decent, with mixing heights
increasing to around 3000 ft by late morning.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers late in the morning. Chance of
                    rain showers late in the afternoon. Slight
                    chance of thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Temperature.........59 at ignition...Max 73.
RH..................51 percent at ignition...Min 50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds east at 4 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 7 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL at ignition...increasing to 2400-3400
                    ft AGL late in the morning.
Transport winds.....Southeast 7 to 15 mph.
DSI.................2.

TIME (CDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM
Sky (%).........77  78  79  80  81  82  83  83  84  85
Weather cov.....            SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                    SCH
Temp............58  59  63  66  68  69  71  71  72  71
RH..............71  67  62  61  59  59  57  59  59  61
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..5   6   6   7   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 1.0 1.8 2.4 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.4
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S
Transp wind spd.9   10  13  14  14  14  14  15  15  15
Dispersion......2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms early in the evening. Chance of
                    showers through the night.
Temperature.........Min 60.
RH..................Max 90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......900-2800 ft AGL decreasing to 500-700 ft AGL
                    after midnight.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 13 mph.
DSI.................2.

TIME (CDT)      5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM
Sky (%).........86  87  88  85  83  81  79  77  75  74  73  73
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH
Temp............70  69  67  65  64  62  61  61  60  60  60  60
RH..............63  66  68  73  75  81  84  84  87  87  87  87
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..7   6   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...2.8 2.0 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.13  10  8   8   9   10  10  10  10  10  12  12
Dispersion......2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Chance of showers
                    through the day. Slight chance of thunderstorms
                    early in the morning, then chance of
                    thunderstorms late in the morning.
Temperature.........Max 76.
RH..................Min 60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......500-1500 ft AGL increasing to 5000-6000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
DSI.................2.

TIME (CDT)      5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM
Sky (%).........72  71  81  80  79  78  76  72  71  67  59  55
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........        SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp............60  61  61  63  65  67  68  70  71  73  75  76
RH..............90  87  90  87  84  81  81  76  73  68  62  60
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.10  10      10  10  15  15  15  15  15  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.8 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.3 5.0 5.5 5.9 6.0 5.7
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.12  12  12  13  13  14  14  14  14  14  15  15
Dispersion......2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

$$
Forecaster...EBW
Requested by...Nathan M White
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707104.0/LMK
.EMAIL nathan.m.white8.civ@mail.mil



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.