Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FNUS73 KLSX 211106
FWSLSX

Spot Forecast for White unit f...MO DEPT of CONSERVATION
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
506 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CST on February 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms were occurring early this morning
ahead of an approaching cold front. Initially light and variable winds
will become light and northeasterly or easterly after the front
moves through, then become light and variable again by late afternoon.

Temperatures will be above average today and tomorrow. Minimum
afternoon relative humidity values at the burn site will be around 50%
today because of the morning rain but could fall below 30% on Wednesday
afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Patchy fog late
                    in the morning. Chance of rain showers during
                    mid morning. Slight chance of rain showers late
                    in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........59 at ignition...Max 70.
RH..................90 percent at ignition...Min 50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northeast at 2 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Light winds becoming north
                    around 5 mph during mid afternoon...then
                    becoming light late in the afternoon.
Eye level winds.....Adjustment factor of 0.4 for unsheltered fuels
                    and fuel model 9. Winds light at ignition...otherwise
                    becoming north around 2 mph during mid afternoon...then
                    becoming light late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......Around 500 ft at ignition, 2900 ft AGL at max heating.
Transport winds.....North around 5 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1820 m/s-m) at max heating.

TIME (CST)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   7 PM
Sky (%).........87     77     68     59     50     34
Weather cov.....CHANCE
Weather type....RN/FG  NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............30     0      10     0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............59     64     68     70     67     62
RH..............90     73     63     55     61     70
20 ft wind......NE 2   N 3    N 4    N 5    N 3    N 2
20 ft wind gust.5      5      5             5      5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent) then becoming
                    mostly clear (5-15 percent). Patchy fog early
                    in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........Min 47.
RH..................Max 100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Eye level winds.....Light winds.
Haines Index........N/A.
Mixing height.......N/A.
Transport winds.....N/A.
Smoke dispersal.....N/A.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Patchy fog early in the
                    morning.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........Max 77.
RH..................Min 31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 9 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Eye level winds.....Adjustment factor of 0.4 for unsheltered fuels and
                    fuel model 9. Light winds becoming south 2-4 mph
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL at max heating.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4080 m/s-m) at max heating.

$$

Forecaster...Kanofsky
Requested by...Beshears
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702517.0/LSX



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