Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FNUS73 KLSX 191208
FWSLSX

Spot Forecast for Mark Twain Lake...Army Corps of Engineers
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
708 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on April 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Dry weather is expected to continue through today with afternoon
relative humidity values dropping to middle 30 percent range. There
is a chance for thunderstorms late tonight into Thursday morning.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........71 at ignition...Max 84.
RH..................73 percent at ignition...Min 36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 10 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise South winds 10 to 15 mph.
Eye level winds.....Southwest to south at 3 to 5 mph with higher
                    gusts possible.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL at ignition, 6600 ft AGL at max heating.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (20660 m/s-m) at max heating.

TIME (CDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM   8 PM
Sky (%).........54     46     38     31     24     29
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10     10     0      0      10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............71     77     81     82     80     76
RH..............73     56     46     41     45     54
20 ft wind......SW 10  SW 12  SW 14  S 15   S 12   S 11
20 ft wind gust.15     20     25     25     25     20

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms around midnight.
                    Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 2400, then 1-8 strikes until
                    0100, then 9-15 strikes.
Temperature.........Min 62.
RH..................Max 86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 9 to 11 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the late
                    evening and overnight.
Eye level winds.....Southwest around 3 mph.
Haines Index........N/A.
Mixing height.......N/A.
Transport winds.....N/A.
Smoke dispersal.....N/A.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 1300, then No Tstms.
Temperature.........Max 67.
RH..................Min 47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 9 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    morning.
Eye level winds.....Northwest around 3 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......3300 ft AGL at max heating.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (9900 m/s-m) at max heating.

$$
Forecaster...Tilly
Requested by...Shelly Howald
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707190.0/LSX



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