Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FNUS71 KLWX 021026
FWSLWX

SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG MEADOWS3...NPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
626 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON OCTOBER 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...WHILE A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66.
MIN HUMIDITY........75 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5
                    TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-3000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3800-5100 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 1 TO 8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (4400-17400 KNOT-FT).

TIME (EDT)       1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%)..........56  49  47  42  40
WEATHER COV......
WEATHER TYPE.....
TEMP.............64  65  65  65  65
RH...............78  78  78  78  75
20 FT WIND DIR...SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD...3   4   4   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST..4           7   7
CWR..............10  10  10  10  10
VRATE KT-FT/1000.5   4   7   12  17

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN
                    BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE
                    EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-4100 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 900-2000 FT
                    AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (7900-20700 KNOT-FT).

TIME (EDT)       6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%)..........42     47     52     60     77     79
WEATHER COV......                            PATCHY PATCHY
WEATHER TYPE.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   FOG    FOG
TEMP.............64     62     60     59     59     58
RH...............78     81     87     90     90     93
20 FT WIND.......SE 4   SE 3   SE 4   SE 5   SE 5   S 5
20 FT WIND GUST..       4             7      7      7
CWR..............10     10     10     10     10     10
VRATE KT-FT/1000.21     16     13     11     8      9

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING. PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE LATE
                    MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MIN HUMIDITY........75 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH.
CWR.................10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3100-3800 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 18 MPH...INCREASING TO 20 TO 21 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (7700-48200 KNOT-FT)...INCREASING
                    TO GOOD TO EXCELLENT (59300-67100 KNOT-FT)
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (EDT)       6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%)..........78     74     74     74     75     82
WEATHER COV......PATCHY PATCHY PATCHY PATCHY
WEATHER TYPE.....FOG    FOG    DRZL   DRZL   NONE   NONE
TEMP.............58     59     63     66     68     68
RH...............90     87     81     75     76     76
20 FT WIND.......S 5    S 5    S 6    S 8    S 8    S 10
20 FT WIND GUST..7      7      7      11     14     14
CWR..............10     10     10     10     10     10
VRATE KT-FT/1000.8      8      17     36     59     67

$$
FORECASTER...SCHOOR
REQUESTED BY...JOHN FRY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20141002.BIGME.03/LWX





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