Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FNUS71 KLWX 250848
FWSLWX

SPOT FORECAST FOR ARCHER KNOB...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
448 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0455 EDT ON APRIL 25.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING TOWARD
EVENING. THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST AS OF NOW. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN
ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

SATURDAY WILL TURN OUT BREEZY AND MAINLY DRY. A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
ANY RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SHOWERS.
                    A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6
                    TO 11 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 100 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO 50 PERCENT TOWARD EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 1800-3100 FT
                    AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 14 MPH...INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 20
                    TO 23 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........76     81     91     96     100    91
WEATHER COV.....       LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............47     50     56     61     63     64
RH..............60     67     69     70     66     64
20 FT WIND......S 3    S 5    S 7    S 8    S 7    S 8
20 FT WIND GUST.7      11     11     14     14     14
CWR.............10     60     60     100    80     80

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 46.
MAX HUMIDITY........72 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
                    30 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CWR.................50 PERCENT...DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT IN THE
                    EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-3000 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 600-800 FT AGL
                    LATE.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 24 TO 32 MPH...DECREASING TO 15 TO 21
                    MPH LATE.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........81     60     39     29     21     19
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............62     58     55     52     50     49
RH..............66     71     69     66     62     61
20 FT WIND......SW 10  W 11   W 14   NW 14  NW 14  NW 10
20 FT WIND GUST.14     18     21     21     21     18
CWR.............50     10     10     10     10     10

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT)...THEN
                    BECOMING PARTLY SUNNNY (50-60 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.
MIN HUMIDITY........30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 14 TO 19 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
                    MPH.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 7500-8400 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 15 MPH...INCREASING TO 32 TO 39 MPH.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........15     13     28     39     56     55
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............48     53     60     66     70     70
RH..............63     56     43     35     30     30
20 FT WIND......NW 7   W 5    W 7    W 11   W 14   W 15
20 FT WIND GUST.11     7      11     18     21     25
CWR.............10     10     10     10     10     10

$$
FORECASTER...LASORSA
REQUESTED BY...TOM LEDBETTER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140425.ARCHE.01/LWX






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