Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FNUS74 KLZK 211244
FWSLZK

Spot Forecast for 515 Regens P/CS...USFS
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
644 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 CST on November 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service Immediately.

.DISCUSSION...
South winds will bring an increase in low level moisture this
morning in advance of a cold front that will move through the area
early this afternoon. Much cooler and drier air will move in
behind the front tonight and Wed.

.TODAY...

Temperature.........40 at ignition...Max 63.
RH..................79 percent at ignition...Min 50 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 9 mph shifting to the north 5 to
                    7 mph early in the afternoon.
Stability class.....C.
20 Foot Winds.......Winds southwest at 4 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Light winds.
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent).
Dispersion..........11.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.
Eye level winds.....Light winds.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 4000 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 5026 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............40  43  45  48  52  56  59  61  62  63  59  55
RH..............79  76  73  71  63  59  55  51  50  50  56  65
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Eye lvl wnd dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Eye lvl wnd spd.2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Eye lvl wnd gst.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   NW  N   N   N
Transp wind spd.7   8   8   9   9   8   8   7   6   5   6   7
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.TONIGHT...

Temperature.........Min 33.
RH..................Max 83 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Transport winds.....Northeast 9 to 15 mph.
Stability class.....D.
20 Foot Winds.......Light winds.
LVORI...............1.
Sky/weather.........Clear (0-5 percent).
Dispersion..........4 early in the evening.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....Light winds.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 2000 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 2966 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............51  48  46  44  42  41  39  38  37  36  35  35
RH..............75  79  79  83  83  82  82  80  77  75  74  72
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Eye lvl wnd dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Eye lvl wnd spd.2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Eye lvl wnd gst.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NE
Transp wind spd.9   12  13  14  15  15  15  14  14  14  13  13
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.WEDNESDAY...

Temperature.........Max 52.
RH..................Min 27 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Transport winds.....North 5 to 13 mph decreasing to around 3 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Stability class.....C.
20 Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the morning
                    becoming light.
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Dispersion..........18 decreasing to 7 late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Eye level winds.....North winds around 5 mph in the morning
                    becoming light.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 3200 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 4201 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............33  33  34  38  42  45  48  50  51  52  51  48
RH..............71  70  65  55  46  40  35  31  29  27  29  35
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.                        5   5   5   5   5   5
Eye lvl wnd dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Eye lvl wnd spd.3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2
Eye lvl wnd gst.                        5   5   5   5   5   5
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.13  12  12  10  9   8   7   6   6   6   5   3
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

$$
Forecaster...44
Requested by...R.L. Self
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1719017.1/LZK
.EMAIL rlself@fs.fed.us



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