Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FNUS72 KMHX 221521
FWSMHX

Spot Forecast for Air Force Burn 022218...NCFS
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1021 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EST on February 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will continue to extend over the area from the
Western Atlantic through this evening and produce a very warm
southerly flow across the region. A backdoor cold front will
sag south into northern portions of Eastern North Carolina late
tonight and early Friday then lift back north Friday afternoon.
A cold front will move through the area Sunday night into early
Monday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts 15 mph.
Mixing height.......Max 3700 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 16 mph.
Vent Rate...........Max 58879 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 9.
Haines index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EST)         11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)............51  38  32  29  23  20  20
Weather cov........
Weather type.......
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............71  73  76  77  77  74  71
RH.................76  68  62  60  60  64  71
20 FT wind dir.....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S
20 FT wind spd.....7   8   9   9   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust....15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)......1.5 2.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 2.3
Transp wind dir....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd....14  15  16  16  15  14  12
LVORI..............3   1   1   1   1   1   3
Haines index.......4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRate mph-ft/1000..20  39  59  57  53  47  28

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy, then becoming mostly cloudy.
                    Areas of fog late.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 14 mph in the evening,
                    becoming light, then becoming northwest 5 to 6
                    mph late.
Mixing height.......Min 300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 9 mph, becoming north 8 to 10 mph
                    late.
Vent Rate...........Min 1724 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 8.
Haines index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EST)         6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)............21  21  23  27  29  34  43  48  51  56  59  62
Weather cov........                                    ARS ARS ARS
Weather type.......                                    FOG FOG FOG
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............67  64  62  61  60  60  59  59  59  58  58  57
RH.................81  87  93  93  96  96  96  96  96  96  96  100
20 FT wind dir.....S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd.....8   7   7   6   5   4   3   3   3   3   4   5
20 FT wind gust....15  15  15          5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)......1.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir....S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   N   N   NW
Transp wind spd....9   8   8   9   9   8   7   7   8   9   10  8
LVORI..............4   5   6   6   7   8   8   8   8   7   6   8
Haines index.......4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRate mph-ft/1000..12  2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   2

$$
Forecaster...Frederick
Requested by...Kit Gibbs
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1802374.0/MHX
.EMAIL kit.gibbs@ncagr.gov


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