Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FNUS71 KOKX 231918
FWSOKX

Spot Forecast for NY wildfire an Incident Managment Academy...NY-DHSES
National Weather Service New York NY
318 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1600 EDT on October 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front will approach from the west tonight
and Tuesday and slowly move through the local area Tuesday night
into Wednesday. 2 to 3 inches of rain is expected with locally
higher amounts as the front slowly moves through. In addition, S
winds of 15-25 mph gusting to 30-40 mph are expected.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
Temperature.........72 at ignition...Max 73.
RH..................68 percent at ignition...Min 68 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southeast at 8 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Southeast winds around 8
                    mph.
Mixing height.......4600 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 3900-4600
                    ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 25 mph.

TIME (EDT)      4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........69  73
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10  10
Temp............72  70
RH..............68  73
20 FT wind dir..150 150
20 FT wind spd..8   8
20 FT wind gust.13  10
Mix hgt (kft)...4.6 3.9
Transp wind dir.160 160
Transp wind spd.25  25

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Patchy fog.
                    Areas of drizzle. A slight chance of showers
                    after midnight, then a chance of showers late.
CWR.................10 percent, increasing to 50 percent.
Temperature.........Min 64.
RH..................Max 100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 8 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 24 mph
                    after midnight.
Mixing height.......1300-2700 ft AGL, decreasing to 0-300 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Transport winds.....South 17 to 26 mph, increasing to 29 to 31 mph
                    late.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........74  74  75  78  81  84  87  90  93  94  95  97
Weather cov.....ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....DZL DZL DZL DZL DZL DZL DZL DZL DZL RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  20  40  50  50
Temp............71  70  69  68  68  67  67  66  66  65  65  64
RH..............73  78  81  84  87  90  90  97  97  100 100 100
20 FT wind dir..150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 160
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   7   8   8   9   9   10  11  12  13
20 FT wind gust.11  10  10  10  12  14  14  17  18  18  18  19
Mix hgt (kft)...2.7 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.160 160 160 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 170
Transp wind spd.23  21  18  17  18  20  22  23  24  26  29  31

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Patchy fog until late
                    afternoon. A chance of showers and areas of
                    drizzle early in the morning. Showers in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
CWR.................50 percent, increasing to 70 percent.
Temperature.........Max 72.
RH..................Min 81 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 14 to 16 mph. Gusts up to 33 mph,
                    increasing to 35 mph early in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......100-1900 ft AGL, increasing to 1700-2100 ft AGL
                    late.
Transport winds.....South 33 to 40 mph, increasing to 43 to 46 mph
                    in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........98  99  100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............50  50  50  50  60  60  60  60  70  70  70  70
Temp............64  64  64  65  66  68  70  71  72  72  72  72
RH..............100 100 100 100 100 93  87  84  81  81  81  81
20 FT wind dir..160 160 160 160 160 160 160 170 170 170 170 170
20 FT wind spd..14  14  15  15  16  16  16  16  16  16  16  16
20 FT wind gust.19  20  20  21  23  24  26  26  28  28  28  28
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.7
Transp wind dir.180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180
Transp wind spd.33  35  36  37  37  38  40  43  45  46  46  45

$$
Forecaster...JP
Requested by...Brett Gore- SITL
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1717742.0/OKX
.EMAIL brett_gore@fws.gov



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