Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FNUS74 KOUN 100626
FWSOUN

Spot Forecast for Mt Scott, Lawton Field...USFWS
National Weather Service Norman OK
126 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 CDT on August 10.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (405) 325-3816 if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
An outflow boundary from overnight thunderstorms across northern
Oklahoma may approach the burn site during the early morning hours.
If this happens, the current forecast of southerly/southeasterly
winds may be inaccurate. Winds could be more easterly or east-northeasterly.
However, if this does occur, by mid-morning winds should veer back
around to southeasterly or southerly. There is only a slight chance of
rain showers near the burn site. A complex of thunderstorms should pass
north of the area overnight. If thunderstorm expansion on its southern end
is more extensive than currently thought, then heavy downpours and gusty
winds could occur late this evening through early tonight. Please feel free
to call the office or submit another spot request tomorrow morning as by
then we will have a better handle on how this outflow boundary has progressed.
Other elements of the forecast are fairly high confidence.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Max temperature.....Around 93.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......300-2000 ft AGL increasing to 7400-9100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (400-47300 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (62300 knot-ft) early in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........50     50     50
Weather cov.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Temp............89     92     93
RH..............50     44     43
20 ft wind......S 9    S 9    S 10
20 ft wind gust.15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....5300   7400   9100
Transport wind..SW 8   SW 8   S 10
VRate ktft/100047     77     97

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms after
                    midnight.
Min temperature.....Around 73.
Max humidity........86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 7 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......8100-9100 ft AGL decreasing to 0-500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good to excellent (55000-99800 knot-ft)
                    decreasing to poor to good (0-34700 knot-ft) in
                    the late evening and overnight.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........50     50     50     71     79     76
Weather cov.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
Temp............92     89     84     80     77     76
RH..............43     48     59     67     76     79
20 ft wind......S 10   S 10   S 9    S 9    SE 9   S 7
20 ft wind gust.15     15     15     15     15     10
Mix hgt (ft)....9100   5700   400    BLW100 500    500
Transport wind..S 13   S 14   S 14   S 15   S 15   S 15
VRate ktft/1000100    74     35     1      0      0

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms.
Max temperature.....Around 93.
Min humidity........46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......North winds around 7 mph shifting to the south
                    5 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......200-1500 ft AGL increasing to 2400-4100 ft AGL
                    late in the morning, then increasing to 5300 ft
                    AGL early in the afternoon increasing to 7500
                    ft AGL early in the afternoon increasing to
                    9500-10000 ft AGL decreasing to 7300 ft AGL
                    late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North around 7 mph shifting to the south 5 to 9
                    mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (1700-41300 knot-ft).

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........78        76        63        59
Weather cov.....CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
Temp............74        79        86        92
RH..............84        74        62        49
20 FT wind......N 7G10    E 8G15    SE 8G15   S 6G10
Mix hgt (ft)....200       1500      4100      9500
Transport wind..S 10      SE 2      SW 12     SW 14
VRate ktft/10002         22        41        34

$$
Forecaster...BOWERS
Requested by...Baler
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1714117.0/OUN
.EMAIL richard_baker@fws.gov


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