Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FNUS71 KPHI 021940
FWSPHI

SPOT FORECAST FOR CRESCO COMPLEX FIRE...EA IMT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1505 EDT ON MAY 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY LATE TONIGHT AND THEN PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54.
MIN HUMIDITY........88 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
WIND SHIFT..........SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1100 FT AGL.

TIME (EDT)          3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............95  92  90
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................53  53  52
RH..................88  89  91
20 FT WIND DIR......SSW SW  W
20 FT WIND SPD......8   9   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....12  13  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......1.1 0.9 0.6
CWR.................10  10  10
CHC OF PCPN (%).....10  10  10
LAL.................1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER SUNSET
                    THIS EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE
                    EVENING... THEN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47.
MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE EVENING...
                    BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH AROUND MIDNIGHT...
                    THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST IN THE EARLY MORNING.
CWR.................10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
WIND SHIFT..........WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTH DURING THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-900 FT AGL.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............88     84     88     93     97     95
WEATHER COV.........       S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............
TEMP................53     52     51     50     49     48
RH..................89     92     96     95     95     93
20 FT WIND..........W 7    NW 6   NW 5   N 4    N 3    N 4
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     9             6      5      7
MIX HGT (FT)........500    BLW100 100    400    700    800
CWR.................10     10     30     40     60     60
CHC OF PCPN (%).....10     10     30     40     60     60
LAL.................1      1      1      1      1      1

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE
                    MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 4-7 MPH IN THE
                    MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
CWR.................60 PERCENT...DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
WIND SHIFT..........BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE MID TO LATE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2700 FT AGL.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............94     92     88     84     81     78
WEATHER COV.........LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................48     50     53     56     57     59
RH..................92     85     76     70     66     62
20 FT WIND..........N 5    N 5    N 6    NE 4   NE 3   E 3
20 FT WIND GUST.....7      7      8      7      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)........1000   1200   1800   2400   2700   2400
CWR.................60     60     50     40     20     10
CHC OF PCPN (%).....60     60     50     40     20     10
LAL.................1      1      1      1      1      1

$$
FORECASTER...KLEIN
REQUESTED BY...JOHN HINTZ
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20160502.CRESC.03/PHI



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