Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FNUS75 KPUB 311059
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACK MTN  P7 P8...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
459 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...WINDS ARE PROJECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH BY
THIS AFTERNOON AS COOL AIR DESCENDING THROUGH THE PLAINS
BANKS UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS AND CHANNELS SOUTHERLY WINDS UP THE
VALLEY. RIDGE TOP WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND 20 MPH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT GIVEN THE SHELTERED LOCATION OF THE SPOT THINK
THESE HIGHER SPEEDS WILL NOT IMPACT THE BURN LOCATION.  HOWEVER
THIS WILL MEAN A STRONG INVERSION WILL TAKE LONGER TO BREAK TODAY
AND WILL LIMIT MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. THUS THINK THERE WILL ONLY
BE A 3 HOUR WINDOW OF GOOD DISPERSIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.  INITIALLY WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING...
BUT MAY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  GUSTS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD HIT 30 MPH...BUT THINK THEY WILL STAY ABOVE
THE BURN SITE OVERNIGHT.  WINDS WILL BE QUICKER TO MIX DOWN INTO THE
BURN SITE ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.  RIDGE TOPS
COULD SEE GUSTS OF AROUND 40 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  GIVEN THE STRONG
MIXING...SMOKE DISPERSIONS WILL QUICKLY RISE INTO THE EXCELLENT CATEGORY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58F.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-27 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTH 4-6 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTH AROUND 11
                    MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FEET AGL UNTIL 1300...THEN 4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1300...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1400...THEN
                    GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN FAIR.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35 PERCENT) UNTIL 0200...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY(60 PERCENT) UNTIL 0500...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY(50 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38F.
MAX HUMIDITY........70-75 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 8 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN
                    NORTH 4-6 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN SOUTHWEST 10-15
                    MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 21 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0400...THEN FAIR.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62F.
MIN HUMIDITY........26-32 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-30 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN INCREASING TO
                    4500 FT AGL BY 1300.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 31 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 0900...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1000
                    THEN EXCELLENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

$$
FORECASTER...TORGERSON
REQUESTED BY...DENNIS PAGE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20141031.BLACK.01/PUB



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