Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FNUS71 KRNK 181752
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for Goshen Pass Fire...Virginia Department of Forestry
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
152 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 1400 EDT on April 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Sunshine and drying this afternoon will be temporary. Clouds will
increase across the incident area this evening, becoming overcast
tonight.  An upper level disturbance will pass across the southern
Mid-Atlantic Region late tonight and Wednesday.  This feature
will result in higher humidity along with the opportunity for some
light rain.

Observed Weather Conditions as of 1300 EDT from nearby weather
stations...

I-64 @ Rt 629 (elv 1913ft)... Temp 64, RH 38%, Wind E 2-4 mph
Lime Kiln RAWS (elv 2580ft).. Temp 70, RH 28%, Wind SE 2-4 Gust 10
Weyers Cave (elv 1112ft)..... Temp 70, RH 38%, Wind ENE 3-6 Gust 12
GlenPed RAWS (elv 865ft)..... Temp 72, RH 33%, Wind ESE 3 mphGust 11


.Forecast for the REST OF TODAY (Tuesday)...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50 percent cloud cover).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 6 mph.
Mixing height.......5400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southeast 10 to 15 mph.
LVORI...............1.
ADI.................35.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........47  59  70  80
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0
Temp............65  66  66  67
RH..............38  36  32  34
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   SE
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  15
Mix hgt (kft)...5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4
Mixng wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE
Mixng wind spd..10  10  10  14
LVORI...........1   1   1   1
ADI.............37  33  33  35
Haines index....3   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). A chance of light rain
                    after midnight.
CWR (0.01 in).......40 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 mph or less.
Mixing height.......3000 ft AGL...decreasing to 1800 ft AGL in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Mixing winds........South 13 to 22 mph.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................37...decreasing to 18 overnight.
Haines Index........2 very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM         10 PM        2 AM
Sky (%).........88           100          100
Weather cov.....                          CHANCE
Weather type....NONE         NONE         RAIN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0            10           30
Temp............65           58           53
RH..............40           51           62
20 FT wind......SE 6G15      SE 5G10      S 3G5
Mix hgt (ft)....4800         2400         2800
Mixing wind......SE 13        SE 18        S 22
LVORI...........1            2            2
ADI.............37           23           30
Haines index....3            3            2

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). A chance of light rain.
CWR (0.01 in).......50 percent. Rainfall amounts less than a tenth
                    of an inch /0.10/.
Max temperature.....Around 55.
Min humidity........65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast 5 mph.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........South 13 to 16 mph.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................25.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky (%).........100          100          99
Weather cov.....CHANCE       CHANCE       CHANCE
Weather type....RAIN         RAIN         RAIN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............40           50           30
Temp............50           51           54
RH..............70           72           77
20 FT wind......SE 1         E 2G5        SE 5G10
Mix hgt (ft)....2300         2200         2100
Mixing wind.....S 15         SE 13        S 16
LVORI...........3            3            3
ADI.............20           25           32
Haines index....2            2            2

$$
Forecaster...Manuel
Requested by...Jason Braunstein
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1707150.0/RNK



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