Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FNUS73 KSGF 162000
FWSSGF

Spot Forecast for Rozell Fire...USDA USFS MTNF
National Weather Service Springfield MO
200 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Forecast is based on request time of 1500 CST on February 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at 1-800-762-4363, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Additional light precipitation chances will occur tonight into
Saturday morning as snow briefly occurs mixing with and or
changing over to rain as warmer temperatures spread into the area.

Warmer conditions will spread into the area on Sunday as gusty
southerly winds and dry conditions occur through the afternoon
hours. Sunday night into Monday scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorm will be possible possible. A front will then sag into
the area mid week bringing better widespread rain chances.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent).
TEMPERATURE.........47 at request...Max 47.
RH..................47 percent at request...Min 47 percent.
DEWPOINT............27.
APPARENT TEMP.......43.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....North winds 7 to 8 mph.
WIND SHIFT..........
WIND (20 FT)........Winds north at 6 mph at request...otherwise
                    North winds 7 to 8 mph.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 ft AGL at request...otherwise 3000-3400 ft
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....Northeast 10 to 13 mph.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....Good /37000 knot-ft/ at request. Max...good
                    /37000 knot-ft/.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....Good /37000 knot-ft/ at request. Max...good
                    /37000 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at request...max 4.

TIME (CST)      3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........61  64  67
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............47  46  45
DEWPOINT........28  27  27
RH..............47  47  49
APARNT TMP (F)..43  42  41
20 FT WIND DIR..N   N   N
20 FT WIND SPD..5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.10
EYE LVL WND DIR.N   N   N
EYE LVL WND SPD.4   4   4
EYE LVL WND GST.10
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.4 3.3 3.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.N   N   NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.13  12  10
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4
VRATE KT-FT/100037  33  27
SDSPL KT-FT/100037  33  27

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain likely and
                    chance of snow after midnight.
TEMPERATURE.........Min 31.
RH..................Max 96 percent.
DEWPOINT............29 increasing to 32 early in the morning.
APPARENT TEMP.......31.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....Light winds.
WIND SHIFT..........
WIND (20 FT)........Light winds.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-2600 ft AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....Southeast 7 to 13 mph.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....Fair to fair (13800-23300 knot-ft).
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....Fair to fair (13800-23300 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........69  73  76  79  82  85  87  91  95  97  100 100
WEATHER COV.....                        SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE....                        RN  RN  RN  RS  RN  RN
TSTM COV........
TEMP............43  42  40  39  38  38  38  37  36  35  34  34
DEWPOINT........27  27  27  27  27  28  29  29  30  30  31  32
RH..............53  55  59  62  64  67  70  72  79  82  89  92
APARNT TMP (F)..40  39  38  37  36  36  34  33  33  32  31  31
20 FT WIND DIR..NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD..3   3   2   2   2   2   3   3   2   2   2   2
20 FT WIND GUST.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
EYE LVL WND DIR.NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE
EYE LVL WND SPD.2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
EYE LVL WND GST.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE  NE  E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.9   8   7   7   9   12  13  12  9   8   9   10
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   2   2   2
VRATE KT-FT/100021  17  14  14  17  21  23  21  17  14  14  14
SDSPL KT-FT/100021  17  14  14  17  21  23  21  17  14  14  14

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Rain in the
                    morning, then slight chance of rain in the
                    afternoon.
TEMPERATURE.........Max 52.
RH..................Min 66 percent.
DEWPOINT............35 increasing to 39 in the afternoon.
APPARENT TEMP.......30.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....Light winds becoming west 5 to 6 mph in the
                    afternoon.
WIND SHIFT..........
WIND (20 FT)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 6 mph in the
                    afternoon.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-2500 ft AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....West 7 to 16 mph increasing to 9 to 18 mph late
                    in the afternoon.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....Poor to good (7100-37200 knot-ft).
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....Poor to good (7100-37200 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........100 100 100 100 99  97  95  88  81  74  62  50
WEATHER COV.....DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY CHC SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
TSTM COV........
TEMP............34  34  35  36  38  40  43  46  48  50  50  49
DEWPOINT........33  33  34  34  35  37  38  39  40  40  39  39
RH..............96  96  96  92  89  89  82  76  74  68  66  68
APARNT TMP (F)..30  30  31  32  34  37  40  43  45  47  47  47
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   SW  SW  W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD..3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   5   5   5   4
20 FT WIND GUST.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5               5
EYE LVL WND DIR.SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   SW  SW  W   W   W
EYE LVL WND SPD.2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   4   4   4   3
EYE LVL WND GST.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5               5
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE  SE  SE  SE  S   SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.12  10  8   7   7   7   8   13  16  18  15  9
HAINES INDEX....2   2   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   3   3
VRATE KT-FT/100013  11  9   8   7   8   10  18  29  37  31  19
SDSPL KT-FT/100013  11  9   8   7   8   10  18  29  37  31  19

$$
Forecaster...GRIFFIN
Requested by...Eric Wiersma
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1802020.0/SGF
.EMAIL momocdispatch@fs.fed.us



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