Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Alaska-Pacific RFC

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AGAK78 PACR 172259
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HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT WED SEP 17 2014

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

STREAMS AND RIVERS IN VALDEZ/CORDOVA REGION ARE STILL HIGH... BUT
CONTINUE TO FALL. CONTINUED RAIN IN THE SEWARD AREA WILL KEEP STREAM
LEVELS HIGH IN THAT AREA.  HIGH WATER LEVELS... DUE TO RECENT
RAIN... ARE MOVING DOWN THE KENAI RIVER.

FLOOD POTENTIAL IS LOW OVER THE REST OF THE STATE.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS THE AXIS OF A BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER
THE WEST COAST... WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR DILLINGHAM AND SEVERAL
SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH.  A SHARP RIDGE IS LOCATED
OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA... WITH ANOTHER LOW WEST OF THAT.  OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS ONE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF AND
STRENGTHEN AS ANOTHER DROPS SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS THE KAMCHATKA RIDGE MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN BERING.  THIS WILL KEEP THE HEAVIEST
RAINS ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGIONS.

THIS MORNINGS FREEZING LEVELS RANGED FROM 4800 TO 6000 FEET OVER THE
MAINLAND... RISING TO 9500 FEET OVER THE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FREEZING LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND
1000-3000 FEET OVER THE WEST COAST AND NORTH SLOPE... WHILE LOWERING
ABOUT 1000 FEET OVER THE REST OF THE STATE.

PRECIPITATION... SELECTED PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE 24 HOURS
ENDING AT 4 AM TODAY:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS   24 HR
======== ====                 == ==   =====
UNRA2    UPPER NUKA RIVER     PC RG :  1.36
RESA2    RESURRECTION RIVER   PC RG :  1.27
PEDA2    PEDERSEN LAGOON      PC RG :  1.24
CKLA2    CAPE KIAVAK RAWS     PC RG :  1.12
MCPA2    MCARTHUR PASS        PC RG :  0.97
BGLA2    BERING GLACIER RAWS  PC RG :  0.93
PAWD     SEWARD               PP RZ :  0.89
SVRA2    SILVER SALMON LAKES  PC RG :  0.88
PACV     CORDOVA              PP RZ :  0.88
GROA2    GROUSE CREEK         PC RG :  0.86
PADQ     KODIAK               PP RZ :  0.82
TKVA2    TOKOSITNA VALLEY     PC RM :  0.87
SWKA2    SELAWIK FLATS RAWS   PC RG :  0.70
SRKA2    SQUIRREL RIVER RAWS  PC RG :  0.67
ILRA2    ILIAMNA RIVER        PC RG :  0.58
NRUA2    NORUTAK LAKE RAWS    PC RG :  0.57
VDEA2    VALDEZ HANDAR        PC RP :  0.48
SDFA2    SOLDOTNA RAWS        PC RG :  0.46
HDOA2    HOODOO HILLS RAWS    PC RG :  0.46
PAKN     KING SALMON          PP RZ :  0.45
BLSA2    BENTALIT LODGE       PC RG :  0.43
BTLA2    BOOTH LAKE RAWS      PC RG :  0.41
QRZA2    QUARTZ CREEK RAWS    PC RG :  0.37
HRDA2    HARDING ICE FIELD    PC RG :  0.36
PAVD     VALDEZ               PP RZ :  0.34
PAEN     KENAI                PP RZ :  0.32
PAOT     KOTZEBUE             PP RZ :  0.30
PAOM     NOME                 PP RZ :  0.29
FAFA2    PFAFF MINE           PC RG :  0.28
PATK     TALKEETNA            PP RZ :  0.25
NRDA2    NUYAKUK R            PC RG :  0.25
MCAA2    MONTANA CREEK        PC RG :  0.25

...LONG RANGE...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AKPEN... SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MAINLAND... AND THE PANHANDLE.  THERE ARE INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE YUKON DELTA AND MOST THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHCENTRAL MAINLAND.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTHSLOPE... SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER... AND OVER THE
PANHANDLE.  THERE ARE INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND... SEWARD PENINSULA...
SOUTHCENTRAL... AND THE WESTERN INTERIOR.

PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HOME PAGE FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

....................................................................

THIS HYDROMET DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED DAILY UNTIL FREEZE-UP BEGINS
IN THE FALL.

A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/GHMD.PHP

$$

ACL



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