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000
AGUS71 KTAR 231612
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1211 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WAS STILL DRAPED
ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  DURING THE DAY
TODAY THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY ERODE OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS
ALLOWING FOR WARM AND HUMID AIR TO RETURN.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  DURING THE SAME TIME A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALSO
APPROACHES.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK.  THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL SLOWLY SPREAD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING
TONIGHT AND THEN OFF THE COAST BY LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY.
:
LOOKING TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH MUCH OF THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NERFC SERVICE AREA WILL BE COOL AND WET
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE REGION AND TRACKS
SLOWLY NORTH.  IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE THERE COULD WELL BE A LATE MAY SNOWFALL.
:
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:
:
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED AND MOVED ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. RIVER RISES OF UP TO TWO FEET WERE
OBSERVED IN THE AREAS WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL.
:
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT RISES TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE COULD BE
OBSERVED IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
:
THE RISES SEEN ON AREA RIVERS HAVE RETURNED FLOWS TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
FLOWS IN NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
...AND EXTREME NORTHERN MAINE ARE STILL BELOW TO MUCH BELOW
SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS. COMPARISONS OF CURRENT TO HISTORICAL
STREAMFLOW LEVELS CAN BE FOUND AT HTTP://WATERWATCH.USGS.GOV.
:
FLOOD OUTLOOK DISCUSSION:
:
THE NERFC FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING IS LIKELY FOR THE RIVERS IN NEW ENGLAND AND NEW
YORK FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.  THE FLOOD OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IS
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/FOP.SHTML
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:          STEVE NOGUEIRA
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                   JEFF OUELLET