Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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373
FLUS42 KMLB 231009
HWOMLB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
609 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-232215-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
609 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN THE PRESENCE OF BRISK ONSHORE
WIND FLOW WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS
MORNING WITH AN INCREASING NUMBER OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
MORNING SHOWERS WILL MOVE READILY ONSHORE THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING...AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
RAIN CHANCES ARE 50-60 PERCENT TODAY.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
A BRISK ONSHORE WIND FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF A MOISTURE RICH
ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
ONSHORE STARTING THIS MORNING AND SPREADING FAR INLAND AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. THE SITUATION IS SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL GIVEN THE COMBINED
EFFECTS OF AN UPPER TROUGH...A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH...AND FAR-
REACHING INFLUENCES OF HURRICANE MARIA. CONCERNS ARE THAT RAINFALL
MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES ENHANCED FIRST NEAR THE COAST THIS
MORNING...THEN INLAND AS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEEPEN AND BECOME
LARGER WITH THE OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL LOCAL INTERACTIONS.
AMOUNTS COULD REACH 2-4 INCHES IN SPOTS.

SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER ARE ALREADY IN FLOOD
AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD FURTHER AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION.


.COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT...
DUE TO THE FAR-REACHING PERIPHERAL EFFECTS FROM HURRICANE
MARIA...SEAS WITHIN THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON...6-9 FEET TONIGHT...AND 8-11 FEET ON SUNDAY.
LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL MOVE LARGE
VOLUMES OF WATER ONTO THE BEACHES. MINOR TO LOCALLY MAJOR BEACH
EROSION MAY OCCUR AS SURF BECOMES ROUGH. THIS COULD AGGRAVATE
ALREADY WEAKENED BEACH LOCATIONS FROM RECENT PREVIOUS STORMS.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
HURRICANE MARIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD WELL EAST OF...AND
PARALLEL TO...FLORIDA`S ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. MARIA WILL
CAUSE THE WINDS AND SEAS TO BECOME ELEVATED ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS WHILE ALSO CAUSING LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO PROPAGATE TOWARD
THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHORELINE. THIS WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS
BEACH CONDITIONS. THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH...AND
SURF WILL BECOME VERY ROUGH. SWIMMERS ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO
STAY OUT OF THE WATER.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
INCREASING NUMBERS OF ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HAVE
THE CHANCE TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY AS
STRONGER ONES MOVE ONSHORE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL OFFER A COMPARABLE THREAT TO INLAND LAKES.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIA WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. CONSEQUENTLY THERE IS A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT...ESPECIALLY FOR SEAS ABOVE 7 FEET ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...AND WELL ABOVE 7 FEET FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS.

.RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN FLOOD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND NEAR COCOA...SANFORD...DELAND...AND ASTOR. NEAR GENEVA THE
RIVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN MAJOR FLOOD. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAIN TODAY COULD FURTHER AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOUT
500 MILES OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND...LARGE
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS AND SURF ZONE
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
OPERATION WILL BE HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS.

BEACHGOERS CAN EXPECT CONTINUED HIGH SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AGAIN SUNDAY. MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION MAY
OCCUR...AND FURTHER THREATEN ALREADY WEAKENED AREAS FROM RECENT
PREVIOUS STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF
NEEDED. THIS INCLUDES RAINFALL SPOTTERS.

$$

DWS



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