Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGXX40 KNHC 140755
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
255 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A BENIGN COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF THEN STATIONARY FROM 25N89W TO THE TX/LA BORDER.
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS MODERATE TO FRESH N-NE WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT AND FRESH TO STRONG NE-LY WINDS FROM WESTERN YUCATAN INTO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE S-LY TONIGHT IN RETURN
FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO REACH THE TX/LA
COAST MON NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
WATERS INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH TUE WITH THE TRAILING END
OF THE FRONT EXTENDING TO NEAR 25N90W BY TUE EVENING. HIGH PRES
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD N OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE N COAST OF CUBA AND SCATTEROMETER
DATA SHOWS STRONG NE WINDS S OF CUBA BETWEEN 77W-81W AND FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS ELSEWHERE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER AREA OF
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE WARNING E-NE WINDS IS DEPICTED NEAR THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 71W-77W. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS
AREA EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE GALE FORCE WINDS AT CURRENT TIME
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z BUT ASCAT PASS AT 03Z DOES NOT HAVE WIND BARBS
GREATER THAN 30 KT...SO WILL NOT PULL TRIGGER ON A GALE WARNING
FOR THIS MORNING AND KEEP A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR LATE
TONIGHT WHEN GFS IS MORE BULLISH THAN PRESENT. STRONG HIGH PRES N
OF FRONT BRIDGING ACROSS THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL INDUCE
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIB ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. MODELS SHOW WELL DEFINED SHEAR AXIS NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS
THE N CENTRAL AND NW CARIB...INDICATING A BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST.
THE FRONT NEAR CUBA WILL MOVE INTO YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS MORNING
AND STALL ALONG 22N LATER TODAY WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
E TO MID ATLC COAST. WINDS WILL FRESHEN THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE
TODAY AS RIDGE INTENSIFIES WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. EXPECT
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE... INCLUDING THE TROPICAL N ATLC.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

OLD STATIONARY FRONT NOW DEPICTED AS SURFACE TROUGH ON LATEST
ANALYSIS. REINFORCING COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHING SE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH LITTLE OR NO SIG WEATHER EFFECTS. SCATTEROMETER DATA
SHOWS FRESH N-NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND FRESH TO STRONG WLY
WINDS N OF 28N ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT BETWEEN 67W-72W. FRONT
WILL REACH FROM 26N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA LATER TODAY...STALL FROM
25N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA MON AND THEN LIFT N AND BECOME DIFFUSE
MON NIGHT AND TUE AS NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE E COAST. PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH BEHIND FRONT AND THE STALLING
BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF STRONG NE WINDS N OF FRONT
TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. NE WIND WAVES COMBINED WITH NW SWELL
WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8-12 FT BY MON AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN HAS
POTENTIAL FOR NE WINDS THROUGH THE BAHAMAS TO BUILD SEAS TO 7-8
FT THROUGH SE PASSAGES BY MON MORNING.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W
INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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