Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 030753
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
352 AM EDT WED JUN 03 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED EVEN BLEND OF TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS AND
00 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR NW GULF AT 28N95W.
THE TAIL END OF A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO 28N89W.

LATEST SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY
...AND CMAN DATA SHOW MAINLY GENTLE E-SE WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE NE WINDS JUST ALONG THE NW COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

SEAS REMAIN AT LOW LEVELS...IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE THROUGHOUT THE
GULF.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A WELL PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER TROUGH IS
PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE EASTERN GULF
AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR HAS JUST ABOUT
ENGULFED THE ENTIRE BASIN AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE WATERS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE
AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING.
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE E OF 84W.

WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD MAINTAINING A WEAK PRES PATTERN WITH LIGHT SEAS
AND RELATIVELY LOW SEAS THROUGHOUT. THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY
OVER THE FAR SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
INTO FRI NIGHT...MAYBE LINGER OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AS A
BROAD TROUGH FEATURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM NW CUBA NEWD TO
ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND S FLORIDA.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED A BLEND OF TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS AND 00
UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM NW CUBA SW TO N CENTRAL
HONDURAS...AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. WEAK LOW PRES OF 1010 MB IS NEAR 20N84W.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY
...CMAN OBSERVATIONS AND ASCAT DATA FROM 0200 UTC DEPICT
MODERATE NE-E WINDS S OF 17N BETWEEN 66W-77W WITH A PATCH OF
FRESH E WINDS S OF 14N BETWEEN 70W-75W. GENTLE E WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. BUOYS AND A FEW SHIP
OBSERVATIONS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC SHOW MODERATE NE-E WINDS
OVER JUST ABOUT THAT ENTIRE AREA. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE
S OF 18N E OF 82W...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE
FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 69W-79W...AND LOWER SEAS OF 3-5 FT W OF
82W...AND 2-3 FT IN THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN. IN THE TROPICAL N
ATLC...SEAS HAVE LOWERED TO 4-5 FT.

THE FRESH E WINDS S OF 14N BETWEEN 70W-75W ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEN
MATERIALIZE AGAIN OVER THE SW PORTION OF ZONE 33 THU AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT BRIEFLY DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOONS. THE 6-8 FT SEAS UNDER THE FRESH NE-E WINDS
WILL REACH TO 9 FT ON FRI...THEN REMAIN IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

BOTH IR WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLE DEEP
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 79W-
85W WITH CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG TSTM ACTIVITY MOVING ENE
FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. THIS IS DUE TO SURFACE LOW
PRES IN THAT AREA...AND WITH INSTABILITY FROM DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD
OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES W OF 85W WHERE DRY AIR RESULTING FROM
SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS BEHIND THE MID/UPPER TROUGH IS
FILTERING IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE BROAD TROUGH AND WEAK
1010 MB LOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL TO THE NE THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH
THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED
FROM CUBA TO THE BAHAMAS AT THAT TIME AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NUDGING THE ACTIVITY EASTWARD.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST
THROUGH THU...EXCEPT BLENDED IN A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE ECMWF
TO THE BLEND FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF BASIN FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN
NIGHT. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED AN EVEN BLEND OF TAFB NWPS WAVE
PARAMETERS ALONG WITH THE 00 UTC MWW3 INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE W OF 70W FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N72W SW TO JUST N OF
EASTERN CUBA. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE IS ANALYZED JUST E OF THE
BASIN FROM 23N63W SSW TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. STRONG HIGH PRES
OF 1028 MB IS WELL NE OF THE AREA AT 34N45W WITH A RIDGE
STRETCHING WSW TO NEAR 32N75W. HIGH PRES IS PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA E OF THE BAHAMAS OUTSIDE THE SURFACE TROUGHS.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...
BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENERALLY GENTLE E-SE WINDS ACROSS
THE BASIN AS ALSO REVEALED IN THE 0202 UTC ASCAT PASS. LATEST
SEA STATE REPORTS FROM BUOYS...A FEW SHIPS AND AN ALTIMETER PASS
REVEAL SEAS IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 0-1
FT IN THE IMMEDIATE WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-3 FT SW OF THE
BAHAMAS.

THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST E OF THE BASIN WILL REACH NEAR 64W BY
EARLY TONIGHT...FROM NEAR 24N65W TO 19N68W BY EARLY THU NIGHT
...AND MOVE ACROSS THE SE AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH SAT. THE
TROUGH FROM 24N72W SW TO JUST N OF EASTERN CUBA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
TO THE FAR SW PORTION THROUGH FRI.

THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE GENTLE E-SE WINDS CONTINUING WITH
RATHER LOW SEA STATE WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO WAVE HEIGHTS DURING
THE PERIOD. MODERATE E WINDS WILL AT TIMES MATERIALIZE BETWEEN
THE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA. THE BROAD TROUGH FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA WILL AMPLIFY TO THE NE THROUGH THU...THEN
GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION THROUGH
SUN NIGHT WITH STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRES TO FORM ALONG
THE TROUGH BEGINNING ON FRI. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER WITH TIMING
AND LOCATION OF SUCH A LOW FEATURE...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT IF IT FORMS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OF SIGNIFICANT
HIGH SPEEDS. THE SAME WITH THE RESULTANT SEA STATE. THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE APPEARS THAT WITH SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY TO
IMPACT MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO SAT AS IT SHIFTS ENE. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. WILL UPDATE THE NDFD TAFB
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY PER UPDATED AND REASONABLE GUIDANCE FROM THE
MODELS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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