Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
000
AGXX40 KNHC 280639
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
239 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED
FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
IS MOVING INTO THE NW GULF WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
OCCURRING WITHIN 60-90 OF SHORE BETWEEN 91W AND 97W. OTHERWISE
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE
BASIN. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
IN THE NE GULF WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE RETURN FLOW
ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 2 FT OR LESS IN THE NE GULF...4-6 FT IN THE
NW GULF...AND 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GET
DISRUPTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
FAR NE GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. NEW HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP JUST S OF LOUISIANA BY SUN AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THEN...EXCEPT OFFSHORE OF THE NW YUCATAN
PENINSULA WHERE DIURNAL TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP EACH EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING W-NW AND OFFSHORE INTO THE NW GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS NEAR THE COAST WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO FRESH TO
STRONG AHEAD OF THE TROUGHING.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED
FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 72W WILL REACH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND...SHIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE GULF
OF HONDURAS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A SECOND TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ALONG 57W WILL REACH THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN BY EARLY SUN...THEN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE MON INTO
TUE...AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THEREAFTER. AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE
AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
ONLY SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THESE TROPICAL WAVES.

OTHERWISE...A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
TROUGHING LOCATED IN THE SW N ATLC CONTINUES TO DISRUPT CENTRAL
ATLC RIDGING. LOW PRESSURE TYPICALLY FOUND OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA
WILL ALSO BE WEAKER THAN NORMAL FURTHER HELPING TO KEEP A WEAK
PATTERN. AS A RESULT...MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXCEPT LIGHT TO
GENTLE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT...EXCEPT 4-7 FT
IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE...
AND 1-3 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE THE WEAKEST WINDS WILL BE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED
FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS CENTERED NEAR 29.5N 76.4W AS OF 2 AM
EDT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS STILL AT 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KT. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 8-12 FT WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS FOUND IN THE
NE QUADRANT. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A
MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM LATE THIS MORNING WHILE CONTINUING TO MOVE
TO THE W-NW...WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN MORE TO
THE NW AND THEN N LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN AS THE SYSTEM NEARS THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
N OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.

CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A FEW WEAK TROUGHS MAY
IMPACT THE WATERS WITH BRIEF WIND SHIFTS...OTHERWISE LITTLE
CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ONCE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
DEPARTS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.