Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 280759
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
359 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES IS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA LAST
NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL NOTED OVER THE
FAR NE GULF WITH 6 TO 8 FT SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF. THE
HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT NE TODAY AND MERGE WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ALLOWING MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE NW GULF. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
MONDAY AS LOW PRES OVER THE PLAINS LIFTS NE. THE BUILDING RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL ALSO SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH
TO STRONG NE WINDS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE SUNDAY. A TROUGH
OFF NW YUCATAN WILL DEVELOP EACH EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...BRINGING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS TO THAT AREA. OTHERWISE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING FAIRLY MINIMAL WINDS AND SEAS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN...REACHING FROM
WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVE NEAR THE
GULF OF HONDURAS THIS MORNING. THE FRONT GRADUALLY STALL ACROSS
THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE SUNDAY...AND DISSIPATE THROUGH
MONDAY. AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 02 UTC INDICATES FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS OFF COLOMBIA...AND THIS PATTERN WILL REPEAT OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK. A BUILDING RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
ALONG THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING RELATIVE
MODEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BUOYS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS ARE
SHOWING 8 TO 9 FT SEAS IN NE SWELL. SEAS ARE 9 FT AT BUOY 41300
200 NM E OF GUADELOUPE...A COUPLE OF FEET HIGHER THAN THE MWW3 AND
ECWAVE INITIALIZATIONS. BOTH WAVE MODELS INDICATE THE SEAS OF AT
LEAST 8 FT WILL PERSIST E OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA INDICATE
STRONG NW WINDS OVER THE ATLC WATERS OFF NE FLORIDA AND N OF THE
BAHAMAS THIS MORNING WITH SEAS TO 10 FT...BEHIND A COLD FRONT
REACHING FROM 31N75W THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO NW CUBA.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE
TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BOTH AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF
SWELL GENERALLY N OF 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W. THESE SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID/UPPER IMPULSE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY...PROVIDING A REINFORCING IMPULSE OF 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS
TO 8 FT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N E OF 75W LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. WHILE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THIS
REINFORCMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
GFS SHOWING WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE SUNDAY. ANOTHER REINFORCING
IMPULSE WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINAS MONDAY...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
GENERALLY KEEPS THE IMPACTS N OF THE AREA. RIDGING ACROSS MAINLY
27N AND MODERATE CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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