Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGXX40 KNHC 061852
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
152 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2016

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A cold front currently from the Florida panhandle to the
southwestern Gulf will stall out from south Florida to the
southwestern Gulf late tonight. Fresh to strong west winds are
expected to continue behind the front north of 28N to about 91W
through this evening. A squall line ahead of the front over the
eastern gulf will continue into this evening as well, before
dissipating.

After a lull in activity later tonight through Wednesday evening,
a strong cold front will emerge off the coast of Texas and
Louisiana Thursday morning. This front will cross the Gulf basin
Thursday and Thursday night. Strong high pressure will build
southeast toward the northern Gulf behind the front. This will
support gale force winds across the western Gulf W of 95W south of
about 26N starting Thursday evening N of 22N, and after midnight
Thursday night S of 22N, The gale will persist north of 22N
through Friday morning, and into Friday night south of 22N. Strong
to near gale northeasterly winds are expected across much of the
remainder of the Gulf behind the front through Friday night,
tapering off into the day Saturday as the high weakens slightly
and moves northeast of the Gulf basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

High pressure over the western Atlantic will support fresh to
locally strong trades over the waters of the central Caribbean,
especially north of the Colombia coast through Thursday night.
Late Thursday night, a cold front will enter the northwest
Caribbean with fresh to strong northeast winds north of the front.
As high pressure builds east over the western Atlantic this
upcoming weekend, 20 to 25 kt northeast to east winds will spread
across the majority of the Caribbean Basin, with 25 to 30 kt winds
just north of the coast of Colombia. As a result, seas will build
to 8 to 12 ft over a large portion of the central Caribbean
Saturday night. These stronger winds and large seas will likely
persist through Monday.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A weakening stationary front over the southeastern zones will
dissipate through tonight. High pressure over the remainder of the
zones will slide southeast tonight. Strong return flow and seas of 8
to 9 ft offshore north Florida will continue into tonight. A
squall line over zone AMZ111 will continue to propagate eastward
through tonight ahead of a cold front that will emerge offshore
the NW zones late tonight. The strong return flow will also shift
east with this front along the northern zones, supporting an
eastward propagating area of seas 8 to 9 ft through Wednesday
night. The southern portion of this cold front will stall out from
south Florida to just northeast of the Bahamas on Wednesday. Then,
a strong cold front will cross the northwestern zones late
Thursday, merging with the stationary front Thursday night. Fresh
to strong northwest winds are expected northwest of this second
cold front starting on Friday. By midday Friday, the cold front
will reach from 30N65W to Central Cuba. By Saturday, the cold
front will reach from 26N65W to eastern Cuba. A strong area of
high pressure building behind this front will reach the eastern
united States on Saturday, which will bring about an expansion of
fresh to strong northeasterly winds south of 29N, west of the cold
front.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK...
     Gale conditions possible Thu night.
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W...
     Gale conditions possible Thu night into Fri.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
     Gale conditions possible Thu night into Fri night.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.


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