Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGXX40 KNHC 011852
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
252 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE
HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE REMNANT TROUGH OF ERIKA IS REACHES FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AREA TO THE CENTRAL GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FLARING ALONG THE TROUGH N OF 26N E OF 85W. THIS CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST INTO WED AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY DISSIPATES THROUGH LATE
WED. FARTHER WEST A SHARP UPPER TROUGH REACHES FROM MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO SOUTH TEXAS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE OVER THE NW GULF EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO WED. LIGHT WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE GULF CURRENTLY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE NE GULF...MAINTAINING THE LIGHT
TO GENTLE BREEZES AND MODEST SEAS OVER MOST OF THE GULF. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
WHERE A TROUGH WILL FORM EACH EVENING...TEMPORARILY ALLOWING
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

A 14 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED 20 KT TRADE WINDS OFF
COLOMBIA...SLIGHTLY LESS THAN 12 UTC GFS INITIALIZATIONS. A
CONCURRENT ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS 8 TO 9 FT OFF COLOMBIA. A
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...SUPPRESSING TRADE WIND DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT OFF COLOMBIA. TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY
THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH 55W BY EARLY
FRI...MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY EARLY SAT AND INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER IN THE WEEK.
THIS ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE THROUGH THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FRESH E WINDS OFF THE
NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH 4 TO 6 FT
SEAS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONG MAJOR MODELS WITH THIS TREND...THE GFS IS SHOWING
LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS SAT NIGHT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE
HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 30N68W IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO
GENTLE BREEZES ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N...AND GENERALLY MODERATE
TRADES S OF 25N. BUOY AND ALTIMETER DATA SHOW SEAS ONLY 3 TO 4
OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MODEST INCREASE IN
WINDS OVERNIGHT OFF THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA...BUT LIMITED TO 20
KT. THE GENERAL FORECAST TREND IS FOR A TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN ATLC OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD
30N...DISPLACING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO 23N BY FRI.
WHILE SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE POSITION AND TIMING OF THE
TROUGH...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER MORE SOUTH
TO SW OVER WATERS N OF 25N WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WIND SPEED
OR WAVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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