Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 200759
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
359 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST.
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NW BAHAMAS WSW ACROSS S FLORIDA
AND ACROSS THE GULF FROM NEAR FORT MYERS TO 27N87W TO 25N95W.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE NOTED S OF THE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD. A RIDGE EXTENDS
SW ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE U.S. TO EASTERN ALABAMA.
LATEST SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS...ALTIMETER DATA ALONG WITH SHIP
AND BUOY DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE 1-3
FT RANGE OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL
POCKET OF 3-4 FT SEAS JUST E OF NE MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHERN
TEXAS...AND IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. HIGHER SEAS OF 5-8 FT
ARE CONFINED TO THE FAR NE GULF N OF 29N BETWEEN 85W-87W. LOW PRES
IS FORMING E OF THE GULF ALONG THE TROUGH E OF CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NE INTO EARLY SUN. WITH THIS TAKING
PLACE THE TROUGH WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TO EXTEND FROM
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF BY LATE ON SUN. THE TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. RELATIVELY BENIGN
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE N CENTRAL AND NE
GULF BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
ALLOWING FOR FRESH ELY WINDS TO EXIST N OF 27N E OF 91W. THESE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO A GENTLE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AND SEAS THERE WILL SUBSIDE AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS
WITH THE LOW E OF THE GULF LIFTING NE...AND THE RIDGE JUST N OF
THE AREA BREAKS DOWN. WEAK TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE SW GULF
THROUGH PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 72W
...WITH AN ESTIMATED WESTWARD MOTION OF 10-15 KT. LATEST SATELLITE-
DERIVED WINDS...ALTIMETER DATA ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY DATA
DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N
ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS...EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF CUBA WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 1-2 FT
RANGE. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-5 FT IN THE TROPICAL N ALTC DUE TO A NE
TO E SWELL THERE. A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
WINDS...AND SEAS REMAINING AT RELATIVELY LOW RANGES. THE TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEANTHROUGH
TONIGHT...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SEA THROUGH EARLY
TUE WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS AS IT REMAINS RATHER WEAK
AT THE SURFACE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY E OF THE TROPICAL
N ATLC ZONES NEAR 51W PER LATEST ASCAT PASS FROM JUST AFTER 00 UTC
LAST NIGHT. THIS POSITION COINCIDES VERY WELL WITH THAT OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS. THE WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
TROPICAL N ATLC EARLY THIS EVENING...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THOSE WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE PASSING THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND INTO EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY ON SUN. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE NE TO SE WIND SHIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH LATE MON...THEN DAMPEN
OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. EXCEPT FOR TSTM ACTIVITY THAT CAN GENERATE GUSTY
WINDS...THIS WAVE WILL ALSO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3
USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT FOR MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE WITH EXPECTED LOW PRES OFF THE FLORIDA COAST.

THE 06 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR BERMUDA WSW TO 29N75W TO INLAND
FLORIDA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. TO ITS S...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
NEAR 27N73W W TO WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA...AND CONTINUES W TO NEAR
FORT MYERS AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM 30N65W SW TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

LATEST SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS ALTIMETER DATA ALONG WITH SHIP AND
BUOY DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH NE WINDS OVER THE NW PORTION N OF
ABOUT 29N AND W OF 75W WHERE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT THERE BETWEEN
HIGH PRES STRETCHING NE TO SW OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE
STATIONARY FRONT IS SUPPORTING THESE WINDS. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE
5-8 FT RANGE. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 3-4 FT...EXCEPT FOR LOWER
SEAS OF 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS.

A RATHER VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SE U.S. AND N CENTRAL/NE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND HELP SPIN UP LOW PRES OF THE
FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N79W AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS NW AND
APPEARS TO MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT. MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF LOW ONCE IT FORMS TO TRACK NEWD AND
ACCELERATE REACHING THE WATERS JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N78W
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW
WITH SEAS IN THAT AREA BUILDING TO AROUND 8 OR 9 FT. ONCE THE LOW
LIFTS N OF THE AREA...THE WINDS IN THE NW PORTION WILL DIMINISH TO
10-15 KT AND TO 5-10 KT SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO
3-4 FT. HOWEVER...FRESH SLY WINDS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS...
MAINLY IN ZONE 113...WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF
SUN AFTERNOON AS THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN STRENGTHENING
ATLC HIGH PRES AND A TRAILING TROUGH FROM LOW SLOWLY SLACKENS. BY
LATE SUN AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...THE WINDS THERE SHOULD HAVE
DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS TO 4-6 FT. THE TROUGH WILL LINGER
OVER THE NW WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE DISSIPATING.
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE SE U.S.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH INCREASING NE WINDS OVER THE NW
WATERS EXPECTED AS AN INVERTED TROUGH TO ITS S SETS UP ALONG THE N
AND CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTS. OTHERWISE...ASIDE FROM WIND/SEA
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXPECTED LOW PRES/TROUGH CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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