Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
000
AGXX40 KNHC 270612
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
212 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WILL STALL OUT NEAR
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT...AND DISSIPATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF THURSDAY AND WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF BY THURSDAY NIGHT. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE WESTERN GULF TROUGH WITH MODERATE
TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH THROUGH
TONIGHT. ONCE THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF...EXPECT MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THROUGH THU...THEN LOW THEREAFTER.


A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL REACH THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN THURSDAY AND CROSS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BY
FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND
LOWER PRESSURES OVER COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TRADES OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MAINLY JUST NORTH OF THE COLOMBIA COAST
TONIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ALONG 52W WILL
LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS 55W AND OVER OUR TROPICAL ATLANTIC ZONES
LATER THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACKING THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WEDNESDAY...THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND REACHING THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
BEGINNING TONIGHT AND FOLLOWING MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE EXPANDING ACROSS
THE REST OF THE SYSTEM BY FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM BEYOND FRIDAY...THEREFORE THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN FROM FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
EXPECT A TRANSITION TO TROPICAL CYCLONE CONDITION WORDING WITHIN
THE HIGH SEAS AND OTHER FORECAST PRODUCTS...ONCE ADVISORIES ARE
INITIATED BY THE NHC.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 30N ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES WILL
TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT TODAY AND LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION.
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OFFSHORE
GEORGIA WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY SUPPORTING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A
STRONG LOW EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS WILL INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS OVER SE WATERS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA...THEN INCREASE
WINDS AND SEAS NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS IT SHIFTS FURTHER WEST. WEAK RIDGING AND GENTLE TO
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH SATURDAY.

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ021...CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
.AMZ023...CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W...
     GALE WARNING WED NIGHT.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.
.AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS...
     GALE WARNING WED INTO WED NIGHT.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU.
.AMZ027...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
60W...
     GALE WARNING WED.
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W
INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
.AMZ033...CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING
VENEZUELA BASIN...
     GALE WARNING WED NIGHT.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.
.AMZ035...OFFSHORE WATERS WINDWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING TRINIDAD
AND TOBAGO...
     GALE WARNING WED INTO WED NIGHT.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU.
.AMZ037...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 55W AND
65W...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.