Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 251722
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
122 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE LATEST
GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS
USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE LATEST GLOBAL WAVE MODELS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN
TEXAS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD BY MID WEEK AND THEN REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH SATURDAY. GENTLE TO MODERATE VARIABLE WINDS THAT
CURRENTLY COVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS NORTH THIS WEEK. MAINLY
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A
THERMAL TROUGH THAT WILL DEVELOP EACH EVENING AND MOVE WEST OFF
THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SUPPORTING LOCALLY
FRESH N TO NE WINDS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING
OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

THIS WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN WILL SUPPORT SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT
NORTH OF 25N AND 2 TO 4 FT S OF 25N THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS
WILL THEN BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FT WED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE LATEST
GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS
USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE LATEST GLOBAL WAVE MODELS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURES
OVER COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS MAINLY ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
WILL INTENSIFY MID WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE WINDS TO COVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. MAINLY MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR
JAMAICA WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
THROUGH TUESDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE EASTERN ZONES OF
THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL CROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES EARLY TUESDAY...THEN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE CROSSING THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THURSDAY. A
SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 32W WILL ENTER THE EASTERN
ATLC ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ON
THURSDAY.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE LATEST
GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS
USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE LATEST GLOBAL WAVE MODELS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA ALONG 28N. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. A SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THIS RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES MID WEEK. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADES WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF 25N
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HISPANIOLA...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO FRESH TO
STRONG STARTING EACH EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING EACH DAY THIS WEEK. NORTH OF 25N W OF 70W GENTLE TO
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS N OF 25N EAST OF 70W THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES...RESULTING IN MAINLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EAST OF 78W STARTING MID
WEEK. THEN...SOUTHWEST WINDS NORTH OF 28N W OF 78W ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH LATE THIS WEEK AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

SOUTH OF 25N EAST OF THE BAHAMAS SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALONG AND WEST OF THE BAHAMAS SEAS
OF 1 TO 3 FT ARE FORECAST. 3 TO 4 FT SEAS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE WATERS N OF 25 THROUGH THE WEEK.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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