Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXAK02 KWNH 061825
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
221 PM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

VALID 12Z FRI JUL 10 2015 - 12Z TUE JUL 14 2015

THE ALASKA MEDIUM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK ---WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS WPC PROGS. THE 6/00Z
ECENS/DETERMINISTIC AND 6/06Z GEFS MEANS BEST FIT THE
SYNOPTIC-SCALE FEATURES --- AND MAINTAINED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY
WITH THE GRAPHICS/GRIDDED DATA.

APPEARS THAT THE BIGGER CHANGES IN THE PATTERN START EMERGING ON
DAYS 7-8 WHEN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA
EDGES INLAND OVER THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA AND INTERACTS WITH THE
AMPLIFYING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR. THIS ALLOWS THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT TO SHEAR DOWNSTREAM INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA AND
THE NORTHWEST CONUS. BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME --- THE MID-LATITUDE
NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL BE INTRODUCED TO TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
ENERGY OFF THE EAST COAST OF ASIA --- AND TO A LESS EXTENT ---
FROM HAWAII. THESE TROPICAL SOURCES OF MOISTURE SHOULD HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO REACH 50N LATITUDE IF THE CURRENT DAY 8 (JULY 14TH0
500MB FORECAST IS REASONABLY ACCURATE WITH THE POSITION OF THE
TROUGH ALONG 160W-165W.

VOJTESAK



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