Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXAK02 KWNH 181640
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1240 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

VALID 12Z TUE APR 22 2014 - 12Z SAT APR 26 2014


THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS ON A CONSISTENTLY ROLL FOR THE ALASKA
REGION AT THE MEDIUM RANGE. EVEN BETTER, THE MODEL HAS BEEN
SQUARELY CORRELATED WITH THE ECENS MEANS FOR SEVERAL CYCLES
NOW--ADDING TO THE ROBUSTNESS OF ITS SOLUTION. THE GFS HAS BEEN
PLAYING CATCH-UP, SO HAVE STAYED AWAY FROM ITS MASS FIELDS. THE
OVERARCHING THEME IS AN INCREASINGLY SUPPRESSED POLAR JET AS
HIGH-LATITUDE BLOCKING ONCE AGAIN DOES ITS THING. THE ALEUTIANS
WILL BEAR THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND STORMINESS--AND THAT
BEING EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BY NEXT WEEKEND, MUCH OF THE STATE WILL
BE DOMINATED BY FLAT GRADIENTS OR OFFSHORE FLOW.


CISCO

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