Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW40 KWBC 211231
PMDHCO
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JUNE 2015

SST ANOMALIES ARE CURRENTLY AROUND POSITIVE ONE-HALF TO ONE DEGREE C
SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.



FROM JANUARY 2015 THROUGH THE END OF APRIL 2015, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
WERE:



- LIHUE AIRPORT 5.03 INCHES (37 PERCENT OF NORMAL)

- HONOLULU AIRPORT 2.80 INCHES (40 PERCENT OF NORMAL)

- KAHULUI AIRPORT 9.57 INCHES (109 PERCENT OF NORMAL)

- HILO AIRPORT 31.32 INCHES (72 PERCENT OF NORMAL)



THE CFS AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NATIONAL MULTI-MODEL
ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS FOR JUNE 2015. THIS ELEVATES THE CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN
AIR TEMPERATURES FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE-, NEAR-, OR
BELOW- MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII IN JUNE 2015 BY
DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS.

           TEMPERATURE           PRECIPITATION
          FCST   AVE    LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
HILO       A50   75.4   0.4   EC   5.3   6.3   8.7
KAHULUI    A50   78.0   0.5   EC   0.1   0.1   0.2
HONOLULU   A50   80.3   0.4   EC   0.1   0.2   0.3
LIHUE      A50   78.1   0.4   EC   1.1   1.3   1.6

SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JJA 2015 - JJA 2016

REFER TO THE 90-DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND
DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. EL NINO CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. POSITIVE EQUATORIAL SST
ANOMALIES CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN. POSITIVE SUBSURFACE
ANOMALIES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC, WHILE NEGATIVE
ANOMALIES ARE PRESENT IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC. CONVECTION WAS ENHANCED OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC AROUND THE DATE LINE. LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WIND ANOMALIES
CONTINUED OVER THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. UPPER-LEVEL ANOMALOUS EASTERLY
WINDS PERSISTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.



MOST STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL CLIMATE MODELS PREDICT THE CONTINUATION OF EL
NINO CONDITIONS THROUGH AUTUMN 2015. THE OFFICIAL ENSO OUTLOOK SUGGESTS THAT
THERE IS APPROXIMATELY A 90% CHANCE OF THE CONTINUATION OF EL NINO CONDITIONS
THROUGH SUMMER 2015 AND APPROXIMATELY A 80% CHANCE OF CONTINUATION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF 2015. BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND ON
RESULTS FROM HISTORICAL STUDIES ON THE EFFECTS OF WARM EPISODES - DRIER THAN
USUAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER HAWAII AND SOME U.S.-AFFILIATED ISLANDS
DURING THE WINTER.



NMME MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII FROM
JJA TO OND 2015 DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS IN SURROUNDING
WATERS. EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE-, NEAR- OR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR LEAD TIMES FOR NDJ 2015 AND BEYOND.



NCEP AND NMME CLIMATE MODELS SHOW ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
FAVORED FOR ALL OF HAWAII FROM JJA TO ASO 2015. CORRELATION OF PRECIPITATION TO
SST IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION INDICATES EL NINO CONDITIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE WARM SEASONS, FROM JJA THROUGH ASO, AND
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE COLD SEASONS, FROM NDJ THROUGH FMA, FOR THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE-, NEAR- AND BELOW-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR SON AND OND 2015 AND FOR MAM
2016 AND THEREAFTER.

                      HILO
          TEMPERATURE           PRECIPITATION
         FCST   AVE   LIM  FCST   BLW  MEDIAN   ABV
JJA 2015  A50  75.2   0.4   A40   19.4   27.2   31.4
JAS 2015  A50  76.1   0.4   A45   25.2   28.6   33.4
ASO 2015  A50  76.4   0.4   A40   26.1   28.8   33.3
SON 2015  A45  76.2   0.4    EC   24.3   30.2   40.8
OND 2015  A40  75.5   0.4    EC   28.3   34.5   42.0
NDJ 2015   EC  74.2   0.4   B40   26.4   36.6   43.0
DJF 2016   EC  72.8   0.4   B45   19.6   30.2   33.3
JFM 2016   EC  71.8   0.4   B45   22.0   32.0   44.5
FMA 2016   EC  71.7   0.4   B40   24.6   34.1   45.5
MAM 2016   EC  72.0   0.5    EC   22.5   28.4   34.0
AMJ 2016   EC  72.9   0.5    EC   21.4   23.7   29.0
MJJ 2016   EC  74.0   0.4    EC   20.2   27.5   29.1
JJA 2016   EC  75.2   0.4    EC   19.4   27.2   31.4

                      KAHULUI
          TEMPERATURE           PRECIPITATION
         FCST   AVE   LIM  FCST   BLW  MEDIAN   ABV
JJA 2015  A50  77.7   0.4   A40   0.7    1.1    1.5
JAS 2015  A50  79.0   0.4   A45   0.8    1.1    1.6
ASO 2015  A50  79.4   0.4   A40   0.8    1.6    2.5
SON 2015  A45  79.1   0.4    EC   2.1    3.3    4.8
OND 2015  A40  77.8   0.4    EC   4.2    5.3    8.1
NDJ 2015   EC  75.9   0.4   B40   5.2    7.6    9.5
DJF 2016   EC  73.8   0.4   B45   4.6    6.9    8.7
JFM 2016   EC  72.5   0.4   B45   4.2    6.2    8.2
FMA 2016   EC  72.3   0.4   B40   3.2    4.1    6.4
MAM 2016   EC  73.0   0.4    EC   2.5    3.5    4.6
AMJ 2016   EC  74.3   0.5    EC   1.2    1.6    2.2
MJJ 2016   EC  76.0   0.5    EC   0.7    1.1    1.8
JJA 2016   EC  77.7   0.4    EC   0.7    1.1    1.5

                      HONOLULU
          TEMPERATURE           PRECIPITATION
         FCST   AVE   LIM  FCST   BLW  MEDIAN   ABV
JJA 2015  A50  79.9   0.4   A40   0.7    0.8    1.3
JAS 2015  A50  81.3   0.4   A45   1.0    1.4    1.7
ASO 2015  A50  81.7   0.4   A40   1.6    2.4    3.1
SON 2015  A45  81.4   0.4    EC   2.5    4.0    5.6
OND 2015  A40  80.0   0.4    EC   4.4    6.4    8.5
NDJ 2015   EC  77.7   0.5   B40   3.9    5.6    8.8
DJF 2016   EC  75.3   0.5   B45   3.7    5.6    8.6
JFM 2016   EC  73.9   0.4   B45   2.1    4.6    7.8
FMA 2016   EC  73.8   0.4   B40   1.9    3.2    4.7
MAM 2016   EC  74.8   0.4    EC   1.8    2.6    3.0
AMJ 2016   EC  76.3   0.4    EC   1.2    1.6    1.8
MJJ 2016   EC  78.2   0.4    EC   0.8    1.4    1.6
JJA 2016   EC  79.9   0.4    EC   0.7    0.8    1.3

                      LIHUE
          TEMPERATURE           PRECIPITATION
         FCST   AVE   LIM  FCST   BLW  MEDIAN   ABV
JJA 2015  A50  77.7   0.4   A40   4.4    5.3    6.9
JAS 2015  A50  79.0   0.3   A45   5.3    6.1    7.8
ASO 2015  A50  79.4   0.3   A40   6.2    7.9    8.4
SON 2015  A45  79.1   0.3    EC   9.2    10.0   11.2
OND 2015  A40  77.8   0.3    EC   9.2    11.7   15.6
NDJ 2015   EC  75.7   0.3   B40   8.6    12.1   16.9
DJF 2016   EC  73.6   0.4   B45   7.5    8.4    14.0
JFM 2016   EC  72.2   0.4   B45   6.5    8.8    13.8
FMA 2016   EC  72.1   0.5   B40   5.8    8.4    9.9
MAM 2016   EC  72.8   0.5    EC   5.3    6.6    8.0
AMJ 2016   EC  74.2   0.5    EC   4.7    5.5    6.0
MJJ 2016   EC  76.0   0.5    EC   4.9    5.4    5.9
JJA 2016   EC  77.7   0.4    EC   4.4    5.3    6.9

FORECASTER: LUKE HE

ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS

CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY
ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE
TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT
OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL OR BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR
EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE
ABOVE CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE IN THE BELOW CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR-NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL
CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY.

NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID
PERIODS.  WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS
SHOULD BE CONSULTED.  ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE
ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU JUN 18, 2015.




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