Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 301148
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
747 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

VALID 00Z SUN MAY 31 2015 - 00Z SUN JUN 07 2015

GUIDANCE INDICATE A GENERALLY THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK, WITH CORRESPONDINGLY
WEAKER THAN AVERAGE TRADES. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING
FRONT EAST OF THE AREA WILL LINGER FOR A FEW DAYS, WHICH WILL HELP
ENHANCE SOME WINDWARD/TERRAIN SHOWERS. AMOUNTS MAY BE LOCALLY
MODERATE PER SOME MODEL QPF, BUT THIS SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION
RATHER THAN THE RULE. A WEAK UPPER FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
PUSH EASTWARD PAST 160W LATE WED INTO THU -- THE GFS RUNS HAVE
BEEN A BIT QUICKER WHILE THE ECMWF WAS SLOWER. A COMPROMISE IS
PREFERRED. MOISTURE SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE AS TRADES TREND BACK
TOWARD A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN LATER IN THE WEEK, AND GENERALLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.


FRACASSO

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