Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 281230
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
829 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VALID 00Z SUN MAR 29 2015 - 00Z SUN APR 05 2015

MODERATE TO LOCALLY BRISK TRADES UNDER RIDGING ALOFT WILL ONLY
SUPPORT LIMITED WINDWARD SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE NORTH OF THE STATE THIS WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN THE RIDGE TO ALLOW SOME MOISTURE RETURN. THIS LEADS INTO
STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE ENERGY AND HEIGHT FALLS WORKING
MORE ERNESTLY INTO THE STATE TUESDAY ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE TO
FUEL A PATTERN WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER POTENITAL THROUGH NEXT
MIDWEEK. LESS CERTAIN SYSTEM APPROACH HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND
MAY LEAD TO GRADUALLY WEAKENING TRADES. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS OVERALL SCENARIO. A FAVOR A
GUIDANCE COMPOSITE GIVEN MODEST FORECAST SPREAD, ALBEIT WITH SOME
LATTER PERIOD TIMING ISSUES INHERENT WITH SMALLER SCALE SYSTEMS.

SCHICHTEL


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