Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 231229
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
829 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

VALID 00Z SUN JUL 24 2016 - 00Z SUN JUL 31 2016

TROPICAL STORM DARBY IS NOW FORECAST BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER (CPHC)TO DIRECTLY IMPACT THE BIG ISLAND TODAY AND
THIS MORE SOUTHWARD SHIFTED TRACK WAS FAVORED BY ENSEMBLES,
ESPECIALLY ECMWF ENSEMBLES, OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS DARBY MOVING WESTWARD FROM A CURRENT POSITION JUST
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE CPHC TRACK SUBSEQUENTLY
TRACKS DARBY AS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND AND TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR/JUST NORTH OF
THE WESTERN ISLANDS MONDAY, BUT ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE STILL FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THEIR TRACK. DARBY HAS AN ANALOG PERHAPS CLOSEST TO BUT
NORTHWARD SHIFTED THAN ISELLE 2014 THAT PRODUCED OVER 15" OF RAIN
OVER FAVORED WINDWARD TERRAIN OF THE BIG ISLAND, BUT A CLOSER
POTENTIAL TRACK TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ISLANDS COULD ALSO
RESULT IN GREATER AMOUNTS THERE COMPARED TO ISELLE.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST PRODUCTS AND WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FROM
CPHC AND WFO HONOLULU FOR THIS DANGEROUS STORM.

EXPECT A RETURN TO A MODERATE TO LOCALLY BRISK TRADE WIND PATTERN
MIDWEEK THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF DARBY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES RESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO FAVORED WINDWARD TERRAIN AS FUELED BY
LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER WEEK
VIA DARBY.

SCHICHTEL


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