Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 300701
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
301 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

VALID MAY 30/0000 UTC THRU JUN 02/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


STRENGTHENING SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NRN PLAINS TUE/WED
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

PREFERENCE:  MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 02/00Z...THEN MORE
GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN
CONFIDENCE:  ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH DAY 2...THEN AVERAGE

THE MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER
AND HAD THE SUPPORT OF THE EARLIER ENSEMBLE MEANS INTO DAY 3.
AFTER 02/00Z...SOME RATHER LARGE DIFFERENCES DEVELOP ONCE THE TROF
MAKES A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND HEADS NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER.  THINKING IS THAT THE 00Z ECMWF MAY BE A BIT TOO SLOW AND
FILLS THE TROUGH TOO QUICKLY.  THE GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET SEEM
TO FIT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BY MAINTAINING A CLOSED CIRCULATION
CENTER BEYOD 02/06Z.


CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD TX
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES BY NEW ENGLAND
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM...WHICH SEEMS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH
WITH THE VARIOUS FEATURES WHEN COMPARED WITH OTHER RUNS FROM THE
00Z PRODUCTION CYCLE...THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.

THAT SUGGESTS THAT A NON-NAM CONSENSUS APPROACH WOULD WORK FINE
WITH ABOVE NORMAL CONFIDENCE.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE IN/NEAR THE CAROLINAS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

REFER TO DISCUSSIONS AND BULLETINS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST AND FORECAST
REASONING. THE 03Z NHC TRACK APPEARED TO BE CLOSE TO A 18Z GFS/12Z
ECMWF CONSENSUS.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

BANN

$$





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