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FXUS06 KWBC 291902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI APRIL 29 2016

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 05 - 09 2016

TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA
CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. TROUGHS ARE
FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST, AND
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA, WHILE A RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER WESTERN CANADA. THE
TROUGH OVER THE EAST IS SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN IN YESTERDAY`S FORECASTS.
TODAY`S MODEL 500-HPA BLENDED HEIGHT CHART INDICATES ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER REMAINING
U.S. REGIONS.

ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER THE
NORTHERN CONUS FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, DUE TO
ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND NORTHWARD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC STATES, AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WHERE 500-HPA
HEIGHTS ARE BELOW-NORMAL. ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW, AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST, ENHANCES CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY CIRCULATION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS ENHANCES THE PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER ALASKA.

ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE WEST IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROUGH PREDICTED NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED OVER MOST OF THE U.S. EAST BEHIND THE
PREDICTED TROUGH AXIS OVER THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NEAR-NORMAL IS MOST
LIKELY FOR NEW ENGLAND. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR MOST OF
ALASKA, AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF
TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON
DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 07 - 13 2016

TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA
CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THE WEEK 2 PERIOD. TROUGHS
PERSIST IN THE FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, NEAR THE SOUTHWEST, AND OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA, WHILE A RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER WESTERN CANADA.
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS PERSIST INTO WEEK 2 OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS,
WHILE BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST. BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER THE EAST HAVE DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY IN MAGNITUDE FOR THE 8-14
DAY PERIOD.

ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE NORTHEAST, WITH A
WEAKENING OF HEIGHT ANOMALIES RELATED TO THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD
OVER THE SOUTHWEST, AND EASTWARD INTO TEXAS AND WESTERN GULF COAST STATES,
WHILE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST,
RELATED TO THE WEAK TROUGH OVER THE REGION. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO BE MOST LIKELY FOR ALASKA DURING WEEK 2, WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION PATTERN FOR WEEK 2 IS SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST FOR
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE WEST AND
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE EAST. PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION HAVE DECREASED OVER NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE EAST, RELATIVE TO THE
6-10 DAY FORECAST, WITH A MORE ZONAL CIRCULATION PREDICTED FOR WEEK 2.
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS PREDICTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD
FOR MOST OF ALASKA.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 50% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF
TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS.

FORECASTER: CPC FORECASTER

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY
19

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19530510 - 19780429 - 19910426 - 19940502 - 20090412


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19530511 - 19580408 - 19940501 - 19910427 - 19780429


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 05 - 09 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   N    A
SRN CALIF   B    A     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      B    A
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        N    A     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    N    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    N    B
N TEXAS     B    B     S TEXAS     B    N     W TEXAS     B    N
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    B    B     LOUISIANA   B    B     WISCONSIN   A    B
ILLINOIS    B    B     MISSISSIPPI B    B     MICHIGAN    B    B
INDIANA     B    B     OHIO        B    B     KENTUCKY    B    B
TENNESSEE   B    B     ALABAMA     B    B     NEW YORK    B    B
VERMONT     N    N     NEW HAMP    N    N     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    N     CONN        N    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        B    B     NEW JERSEY  N    B     W VIRGINIA  B    B
MARYLAND    B    B     DELAWARE    B    B     VIRGINIA    B    B
N CAROLINA  B    B     S CAROLINA  B    N     GEORGIA     B    N
FL PNHDL    B    N     FL PENIN    B    A     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 07 - 13 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   N    A
SRN CALIF   B    A     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      B    A
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    N    N
N TEXAS     B    N     S TEXAS     B    N     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    N    N     LOUISIANA   B    B     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI B    B     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     N    N     OHIO        N    N     KENTUCKY    N    B
TENNESSEE   N    B     ALABAMA     B    B     NEW YORK    A    N
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  N    B
MARYLAND    A    B     DELAWARE    A    B     VIRGINIA    N    B
N CAROLINA  N    B     S CAROLINA  N    B     GEORGIA     N    B
FL PNHDL    N    B     FL PENIN    N    B     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$



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