Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS06 KWBC 301901
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU OCTOBER 30 2014

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 05 - 09 2014

TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA
CIRCULATION PATTERN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD OVER NORTH AMERICA. MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS AGREE ON THE PLACEMENT OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
OCEAN. ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. TODAY`S MANUAL BLEND CHART INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS FOR MOST OF THE CONUS. THE GFS AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS, ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS ARE GENERALLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES. THE
ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. MORE WEIGHTING WAS GIVEN TO THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN
BASED ON ITS SKILL DURING THE PAST 60 DAYS AS ASSESSED BY 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALY CORRELATIONS.

ANOMALOUS ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS LEAD TO ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE CONUS EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN TEXAS WHERE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST DUE TO EXPECTED WET
CONDITIONS. RIDGING OVER ALASKA LEADS TO ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE AND
BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES.

TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN WITH AN ENHANCED PACIFIC JET FAVORS
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
NEAR- TO ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND THE EASTERN CONUS, AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH FORECAST TO
EXIT THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME ENTRAINED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. NEAR- TO BELOW-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE SOUTHWEST, THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES, PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS, CONSISTENT WITH
NAEFS AND GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER
WESTERN ALASKA, WHILE BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER EASTERN
ALASKA.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF
TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8, 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 10% OF
TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


MODEL OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS BETWEEN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 07 - 13 2014

THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTIONS OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER NORTH AMERICA. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS PREDICT A
TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN. A GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED OVER MOST OF THE CONUS. MORE WEIGHTING WAS GIVEN TO THE GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN BASED ON ITS SKILL DURING THE PAST 60 DAYS AS ASSESSED BY
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CORRELATIONS.

THE MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CONUS LEADS TO ELEVATED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NATION, CONSISTENT WITH GEFS
REFORECAST GUIDANCE AND BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLES. NEARBY RIDGING LEADS TO ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE AND
BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES.

TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN WITH AN ENHANCED PACIFIC JET FAVORS
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CONUS. INCREASED CHANCES
FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR FLORIDA ARE RELATED TO EXPECTED RAINFALL ON
DAY 8 AND INFLUENCE FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LATER IN WEEK-2. NEAR- TO
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE SOUTHWEST, THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS, CONSISTENT WITH
NAEFS AND GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11,
10% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, AND 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS BETWEEN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS.


FORECASTER: LUKE HE

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 20

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19711107 - 19731015 - 20051022 - 20011027 - 19991104


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19711106 - 19961108 - 19891018 - 19731016 - 19791023


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 05 - 09 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     N    A     S TEXAS     N    A     W TEXAS     N    N
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   N    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI N    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     N    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  N    A     GEORGIA     N    A
FL PNHDL    N    A     FL PENIN    N    A     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 07 - 13 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     N    N     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  N    N     GEORGIA     N    N
FL PNHDL    N    N     FL PENIN    N    A     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$




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