Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS06 KWBC 290315
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE MARCH 28 2017

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 03 - 07 2017

TODAY`S DYNAMICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA
CIRCULATION PATTERN PREDICTED OVER NORTH AMERICA. TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE EASTERN CONUS, WHILE RIDGES ARE FORECAST OVER PARTS
OF EASTERN ALASKA AND WESTERN CANADA, AND OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. TODAY`S
MANUAL BLEND DEPICTS NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE MOST OF ALASKA AND
PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WITH WEAK POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES PREDICTED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS.

AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS ENHANCES THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE MOST OF EASTERN CONUS, CONSISTENT
WITH CALIBRATED REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOLS FROM GFS ENSEMBLE FORECASTS.
PREDICTED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE SURFACE ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF ALASKA.

MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ENHANCED INFLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INCREASE
CHANCES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THE
HIGHEST ODDS FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS RELATED TO THE INFLOW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND SOUTH TEXAS DUE TO RIDGING UPSTREAM.
ONSHORE FLOW FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF ALASKA.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20%
OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 05 - 11 2017

TODAY`S ENSEMBLE MEAN DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD.
TROUGHS ARE FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND EASTERN CONUS, WHILE A RIDGE
IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE
MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN.

ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND/OR SURFACE ANOMALOUS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TILT
THE ODDS TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR MUCH OF ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH
CALIBRATED REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOLS FROM GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE FORECASTS.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
ESTIMATES FROM THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. ONSHORE FLOW FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR ALASKA AND
THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF
YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, AND 20% OF TODAY`S
0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS, OFFSET
BY MODERATE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS

FORECASTER: QIN Z

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 20

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20030321 - 19910408 - 19840317 - 19930323 - 20070323


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20030320 - 19910407 - 19840317 - 19930323 - 20040328


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 03 - 07 2017

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    A
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       N    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 05 - 11 2017

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    A
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   A    B
ILLINOIS    A    B     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    A    B
INDIANA     A    B     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       N    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  N    N     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.


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