Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 230754
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
354 AM EDT THU MAR 23 2017

VALID 12Z THU MAR 23 2017 - 12Z SAT MAR 25 2017

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...PRIME CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...INCREASINGLY ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA UP
TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND EAST TO THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

A ROBUST SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPIN UP AND TREK ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRIOR TO FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE PLAINS,
TEMPERATURES RANGING 15F TO 20F ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY ARE FORECAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AND STRONG, GUSTY WINDS OVER ALONG THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND WESTERN KANSAS WILL CREATE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR WILDFIRES TO RAPIDLY SPREAD -- NUMEROUS COUNTIES
HAVE RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
IDENTIFIED THAT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY, EXPANDING
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

BESIDES THE HEAVY RAINFALL/SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, EXPECT
ACCUMULATING SNOWS UNDERNEATH THE PARENT UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS AMOUNTS IN
THE 6 TO 12 INCH RANGE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF COLORADO,
UTAH, AND WYOMING. FURTHER EAST, A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED FROM NEBRASKA EASTWARD INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NEBRASKA WHICH WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE COMMA-HEAD OF PRECIPITATION NEAR THE DEEP SURFACE
CYCLONE. A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA IS FORECAST TO
BRING FREEZING RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION BY THIS EVENING AND TO THE NORTHEAST
ON FRIDAY. A MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN DRY INTO THE
WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO POP UP ALONG COASTAL FLORIDA.

ACROSS THE WEST, A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO FROM COASTAL CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
NORTHWARD TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS USUAL, OROGRAPHICS WILL
PLAY A KEY ROLE IN PLACEMENT OF THE MORE CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY.
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS MAY BE ACROSS THE SISKIYOU AND SHASTA RANGES
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW AND VERTICAL MOTIONS WILL BE STRONGEST.

CAMPBELL/RUBIN-OSTER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_WBG.PHP
$$





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