Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6
000
FXUS01 KWBC 280846
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
446 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

VALID 12Z MON JUL 28 2014 - 12Z WED JUL 30 2014

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...

...DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S....

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE LATER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...


THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND DRIVE THE SURFACE FRONT OFF THE
NORTHEAST/MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  PRIOR TO
THIS COASTAL EXIT, HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED WITH A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.  FARTHER SOUTH, THE
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS IS WHERE MORE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL BE ON MONDAY /SEE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR MORE
INFORMATION/.  THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN ONCE IT REACHES
THE GULF COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY STALLS; IT WILL
CONTINUE TO FIRE OFF DAYTIME CONVECTION OVER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.  THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTH FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC.  WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND FINALLY TAPER
OFF.

BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.  BY TUESDAY, MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
U.S. WILL BE EXPERIENCING PLEASANT CONDITIONS INCLUDING THE
TYPICAL HOT AND HUMID GULF COAST STATES!

UNFORTUNATELY FOR THE WEST COAST, CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  DRY, HOT AIR WILL WILL FUEL THE THREAT FOR
FIRE WEATHER DANGER.  MEANWHILE, THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL HAVE VERY HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE.  THIS
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL
DAYS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND CONSEQUENTLY COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING.


FANNING


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.