Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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000
FOUS30 KWBC 291525
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1124 AM EDT THU JUN 29 2017

...VALID 15Z THU JUN 29 2017 - 12Z FRI JUN 30 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 WNW CWHV 30 ESE CWHV 35 SW GNR 20 SSW MWN 10 W GFL
10 ESE FZY 10 SW CYGK 25 W CXOA 20 W CWJT.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 W KVAF 25 SE KBBF 15 NNW KBBF 15 E PSX LVJ 35 NW POE
25 SSE MLU 20 ENE JAN 25 SSW GTR 25 ENE CBM 15 SE 3A1 10 NNE FFC
35 WSW MCN 15 E 11J 10 E PFN 55 E KVOA CYD 10 ESE KMYT.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 ENE LNR 25 N MKG 20 SSE PHN 15 N HZY 10 S FKL 20 ENE PHD
15 WNW OSU IND 10 NNE SAR 35 NNE HRO 15 SE BVO 15 SSW P28
30 W GCK 55 NNW GCK 20 WNW HYS 15 WSW CNK BIE MLE 10 SW OFK
15 NNE ONL 20 SSW MHE 15 WSW OTG 15 ENE LNR.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 WNW W60 35 E KGVX 10 NNE KXIH BPT DRI ESF 25 ENE HEZ
20 S MEI 55 WNW GZH 20 SW GZH PNS 25 SSW JKA 25 N KVKY.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 W OTM 30 ESE MLI 20 WSW IKK 25 N LAF 10 E LAF DNV 20 ESE DEC
STL 35 WSW TBN 20 ENE PPF 20 E EWK 30 NE SLN 10 ENE FNB 20 W OTM.


...CENTRAL PLAINS / LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY / LOWER GREAT LAKES....

IN THE 15Z UPDATE WPC MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
SOUTHWARD...ANTICIPATING THE PRECIPITATION AXIS LATER IN THE DAY
WILL SHIFT IN RESPONSE TO EARLY MORNING OUTFLOW. THIS FOLLOWS QPF
SOLUTIONS FROM THE 11Z ESRL EXPERIMENTAL HRRR...THE 06Z GFS AND
NAM CONUS NEST...AS WELL AS THE 00Z WRF-ARW. THIS THINKING BRINGS
MORE OF KS/MO/IL INTO THE OUTLOOK...WHILE SHAVING OFF SOME PARTS
OF CENTRAL IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS...ALTHOUGH THOSE AREAS DO
REMAIN IN MARGINAL RISK OWING TO ANTECEDENT WET SOIL CONDITIONS
AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF OTHER SCATTERED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. ONE OF
THE MORE LIKELY ORGANIZED ARES WILL BE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...IN
AREAS FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE LARGER SCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES EXPECTED IN KS/MO...AND WHERE DEEP LAYER LIFT IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

THE AREA OF GREATER CONCERN...HOWEVER...WILL BE NORTHERN
MISSOURI...AT LEAST INITIALLY...GIVEN VERY HEAVY RAIN THERE
OVERNIGHT AND THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF ANOTHER MCS FORMING IN THE
VICINITY THIS EVENING. SOMEWHAT GREATER CAPE AND
INFLOW...HOWEVER...MAY SET UP FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST KS AND
SOUTHWEST MO DURING THE PEAK OF THE LOW LEVEL JET CYCLE. THESE
AREAS HAVE HIGHER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES...BUT WILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING GIVEN THE EXPECTED SEASONABLY
INTENSE LOCAL RAIN RATES.


...CENTRAL GULF COAST...

AN EXTENSION OF LOWER NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHTS ONTO THE GULF
COAST...WILL BE KICKED BY AN AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM SYSTEM OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORTICITY
CENTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAK GULF COAST TROUGH...ONSHORE.
MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL WINDS RESPONDING TO THE LARGER SCALE LEE
TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST...WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO MIGRATE INLAND. THIS WAS ALREADY SUPPORTING
POCKETS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN EARLY THURSDAY IN LA/MS/AL/FL...AND THE
REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED SMALL SCALE
CONVECTION TODAY...AND BETTER ORGANIZED SWATHS OF INTENSE RAINFALL
WHEREVER LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE SETS UP DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
WITH PW VALUES WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES...AND ANOMALOUS EVEN FOR
SUMMERTIME IN THE DEEP SOUTH...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR EXTREMELY
HEAVY RAIN RATES...SUPPORTING BROAD MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

BURKE
$$




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