Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 190250
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
TXZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/19/14 0250Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:0200Z  JS
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LOCATION...SW AND S CENT TEXAS...
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ATTN WFOS...EWX...SJT...MAF...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
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EVENT...UPDATE TO EARLIER SPENES MESSAGE DISCUSSING HEAVY RAIN THREAT
OVERNIGHT.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0245-0845Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...TRENDS SEEN IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AT THIS TIME WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
FROM W/SW TX TO S CENT TX AS THE CONVECTION WHICH WAS DIURNALLY DRIVEN
BEGINS TO DIMINISH. 00Z 850MB THETA-E ANALYSIS PLACES BEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS FAR SW TX JUST W OF THE BIG BEND STRETCHING NORTHWARD TO EAST OF
MIDLAND WHILE THE GOES SOUNDER DATA AND RAP ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS AN AREA
OF RELATIVE INSTABILITY FARTHER TO THE SE ACROSS S CENT TX TO THE W AND S
OF SAN ANTONIO. AT THE SFC, OUTFLOW REINFORCED BY EARLIER CONVECTION HAS
ESTABLISHED A SFC BOUNDARY WHICH APPEARS TO STRETCH ROUGHLY FROM JUST N
OF THE BIG BEND TO W AND SW OF SAN ANTONIO AND IS ALSO DEPICTED IN SFC
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FIELDS. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, STILL HAVE SOME
CONCERN THAT THE SLOWLY VEERING AND CONFLUENT S-SE LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM
THE W GULF AND UP THE RIO GRANDE WILL ENCOUNTER THIS LEFTOVER BOUNDARY
IN REGION WITH ENOUGH RESIDUAL INSTABILITY RESULTING IN AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. PROFILES FROM RAP SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING
A NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER AND WEAK MEAN
FLOW OF UNDER 10KTS WHICH CERTAINLY SUPPORTS A HEAVY RAIN THREAT IF ENOUGH
CONVECTION CAN FORM. RIGHT NOW, CONFIDENCE THOUGH IS MEDIUM AT BEST THAT
THERE IS ENOUGH FORCING ASIDE FROM THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW INTERSECTIONS
FOR THIS TO OCCUR. THE ATTACHED GRAPHIC ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS BELOW IN
APPROX 10 MINUTES OUTLINES THE AREA WHICH NEEDS TO BE WATCHED OVERNIGHT.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
.
FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3163 10116 3136 9973 3060 9855 2941 9809 2895 9993
2916 10157 2993 10273 3098 10230
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