Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150951
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Dec 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front entering the far
NW Gulf of Mexico tonight will reach the Bay of Campeche Fri
night. Cool and dense air will funnel through the Chivela pass
into the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri evening with winds rapidly
ramping up to near gale force Fri evening and further to gale
force later Fri night. The front will lose its push Saturday,
which will diminish winds funneling across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. This will keep this gale force gap wind event brief
as winds are expected to diminish below gale force by Sat
afternoon.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 07N92W TO 07.5N113W TO beyond 10N140W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 11.5N TO 17N
between 114W AND 120W. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is from 13N to 17N W OF 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of California: Strong NW winds prevail over the far
northern Gulf of California tonight, and will gradually shift S
through the basin to near 26.5n late tonight before diminishing
below 20 kt early Saturday. Winds will diminish further across
the Gulf during the day Saturday, and shift S to SW ahead of an
approaching cold front. The cold front will push southward
across Baja California Norte into the Gulf of California this
weekend with fresh to locally strong SW winds ahead of the
front. Associated large swell and strong winds will spread
across the Pacific waters off the coast of Baja California Norte
during this time.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of Papagayo will diminish
early Fri, then strengthen again Sat night. Fresh N winds will
funnel across the Gulf of Panama through late this morning
before diminishing through the weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1029 mb centered north of the area near 36N134W
extends a ridge southeast to near 20N113W. The pressure gradient
between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds north
of the ITCZ to 21N and west of 118W. The tradewinds have become
further enhanced to the W of 135W as a low level trough has
developed just W of the area along 144W. This feature will drift
N during the next 24-36 hours and maintain strong tradewinds
across far W portions W of 135W. NW swell propagating through
the area is supporting seas 8 ft or greater over much of the
area west of 120W. Seas associated with a fresh pulse of NW
swell over the NW waters are peaking near 15 ft in the area of
strong trades W of 135W. Seas will slowly subside as the swell
propagates southeast the next few days. A cold front will move
into the far northern waters Saturday. This will usher in
another set of northerly swell into the area, with seas peaking
near 14 ft Saturday night near 30N122W.

$$
Stripling



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