Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302202
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

MAJOR CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE JIMENA IS CENTERED NEAR 14.7N
130.9W OR ABOUT 1630 MILES E OF HILO HAWAII AT 2100 UTC...MOVING
W NW OR 295 DEG AT 13 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS
125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT AND ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE OF
940 MB. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT JIMENA HAS A
DISTINCT 15 NM WIDE EYE. THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN WITH JIMENA
HAS BECOME VERY SYMMETRICAL AND BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY.
NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION SURROUND THE 15 NM
WIDE EYE WITHIN 120 NM SE AND 60 NM NW SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN IN BANDS
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER...AND ALSO
SSW OF JIMENA WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 04N140W TO 07N132W TO
10N128W. JIMENA MAY STRENGTHEN JUST ENOUGH SOON TO REACH
CATEGORY FIVE CATEGORY...AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK REACHING NEAR 17N139W BY TUE AFTERNOON. JIMENA IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF 12 FT OR GREATER SEAS OUTWARD TO 290 NM N AND
240 NM S OF THE CENTER WITH SURROUNDING AREA TO 20-33 KT WINDS
AND SEAS OF 8-11 FT ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND TO ABOUT 300 SE AND
540 NM NW SEMICIRCLES OF THE CENTER BY TUE. REFER TO THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23
KNHC AND HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFEPI/FZPN02 KWBC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS

A 1008 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR
11N109W...AND IS SLOWLY MOVING WESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE AND IN
BANDS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 11.5N111W TO 14N106W AND FROM
14N105W TO 10N102W. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
CONVECTION MAY BE ORGANIZING INTO BANDING FEATURES. THE PRES
GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED E OF THE LOW ENHANCING THE SOUTHWESTERLY
MONSOONAL FLOW TO 20-25 KT WITHIN 90 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE
CENTER WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE
CENTER...WINDS ARE 10-20 KT WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 11N111W BY EARLY MON AFTERNOON...AND TO
NEAR 12N114W BY EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR A MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OF THE
LOW OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS JIMENA PULLS FURTHER TO THE W AND
AWAY FROM IT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS WSW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF
COSTA RICA AT 09N84W...AND GRADUALLY CONTINUES NW TO 11N94W TO
13N104W...THEN TURNS SW TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N109W TO 10N114W TO
12N119W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 85W-
89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-14N BETWEEN 97W-
102W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF
A LINE 07N113W TO 08N118W.

SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST INLAND THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM 96W TO 103W AND OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA
NEAR AND ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 32N136W TO 17N104W. THE GRADIENT
IS SUPPORTING 15-20 KT TRADES ACROSS THE WATERS S OF THE RIDGE
WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN MIXED NW AND CROSS EQUATORIAL S
SWELL. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE THEN THESE CONDITIONS
WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AS JIMENA CROSSES 140W ON WED. THE GRADIENT
E OF THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING NW 15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE
SUBTROPICS E OF 122W TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH
COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION. THE GRADIENT WILL
RELAX ON MON INTO TUE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4-7 FT BY TUE
EVENING.

$$
AGUIRRE



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