Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXPZ20 KNHC 030306

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
306 UTC Sat Dec 3 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.


Gulf of California Gale Warning: Strong post-frontal high
pressure is supporting strong winds across the Gulf of California
to the north of 30N this evening, and this will gradually
increase to minimal gale force early Saturday with seas building
to 8 to 12 ft seas north of 29N. These winds will persist through
early Saturday afternoon before diminishing to below gale force Saturday
evening as seas subside to 8 to 10 ft through late Saturday
night. Expect the southern extent of strong to near gale force
winds to reach along 26N on Saturday. As the high pressure
weakens, the northwest winds will diminish to fresh intensity to
the north of 27N by early Sunday afternoon, with seas lowering to
9 ft. The winds are then forecast to quickly diminish to 10 to 15
kt on Sunday night.


The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 08N90W to 11N105W
to 09N135W, where it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ reaches
further west to 11N132W then to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between
120W and 130W.



A cold front reaches from 29N112W in the central Gulf of
California across Baja California Sur to 26N115W. An earlier scatterometer
indicated fresh to strong northwest winds following the cold
front. These winds will follow the front southward across the area
offshore of the the Baja California peninsula into early Saturday
along with 7 to 10 ft seas. Winds will diminish to 15 to 20 kt
through Sunday with seas subsiding to 5 to 8 ft into early next

A surface trough extends from 21N106W to 18N107W to 12N106W.
Weak upper level support has been supporting pulses of scattered
moderate convection mainly to the east of this trough toward the
coast of Mexico between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes, and this
activity may persist over the next couple of days.


Fresh gap winds will pulse through the Gulf of Papagayo tonight,
then diminish starting tomorrow morning into early next week.
Elsewhere light to gentle northerly winds, and combined seas of 3
to 5 ft are elsewhere to the north of the monsoon trough, while
moderate to fresh southwest flow is noted to the south of the
monsoon trough, with combined seas of 4 to 6 ft in the long-period
southwest swell. Little change is forecast through early next week.


A nearly stationary strong 1033 mb high pressure system is north
of the area at 36N137W with a ridge extending southeastward to
toward Clarion Island near 18N110W. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and troughing along southern California and northern
Baja California is supporting fresh to strong northerly winds north
of 25N and east of 125W, and fresh to strong trade winds from 18N
to 22N west of 130W. Seas of 8 to 9 ft persist from 10N to 20N
west of 120W due to a decaying older northwest swell. A new group
of northerly swell with seas 8 to 9 ft is pushing into the waters
north of 22N and west of 120W. Seas are reaching as high as 13 ft
in the area of strong winds north of 20N and east of 125W. The
high pressure north of the area will weaken through early next
week, allowing the coverage strong trade winds to contract
accordingly. The northerly swell with wave heights in excess of 8
ft will continue to propagate into the area, eventually
encompassing much of the region north of 10N an west of 120W by
late Sunday. This will decay to below 8 ft through Monday across
the region except for north of 20N and east of 125W where fresh
northerly winds will persist and maintain seas of 8 to 10 ft.

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