Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030244
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED SEP 3 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT NEAR 19.2N 106.9W AT 0300 UTC OR ABOUT
340 NM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING NW AT 7
KT. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND UP TO 60 NM
FROM CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM
S QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT NE QUADRANT.
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF 20-30 KT WINDS SW OF
NORBERT IN ENHANCED MONSOONAL FLOW. IT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
AS IT MOVES NW BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N98W TO 11N103W...THEN
CONTINUES FROM 16N113W TO 10N130W. ITCZ FROM 10N130W TO 08N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION N OF 06N E OF 88W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF
AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 95W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
STAGNANT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OTHER THAN TROPICAL STORM
NORBERT...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL BE
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN ANTICYCLONE
ALOFT CENTERED NEAR 21N108W EXTENDING A RIDGE SE ALONG THE
CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST TO PANAMA IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND SHOULD CONTINUE THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE N
AND NW OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL BETWEEN 110W AND 133W SHOULD PUSH
NORTHWARD...WITH SEAS REACHING 8 FT S OF 08N IN CENTRAL WATERS
BY WED BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE EARLY THU.

$$
MUNDELL



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