Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180918
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Aug 18 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A surface low is analyzed near 14N114W, with estimated pressure
of 1008 mb. Strong winds and seas to 9 ft range are noted within
120 NM east of the low. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is within 180 nm southwest of the low. Environmental
conditions are favorable for tropical cyclone formation as this
low moves west-northwestward the next couple of days. Refer to
High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP2
for additional information.

..TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 94W north of 07N, moving
west at about 20 kt. Isolated strong convection is noted from
07N to 09N between 92W and 98W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 110W from 10N to 22N, moving
west at 15 kt. Minimal convection is associated with the wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N105W, then resumes
from low pres near 14N113W to 18N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 116W
and 120W. Scattered moderate convection is also from 08N to 10N
between 132W and 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge will dominate the forecast waters west of Baja California
producing mainly gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas in
the 4-6 ft range the remainder of the week. A surface trough
will meander across the Baja California Peninsula and Gulf of
California through Sat night.

Gulf of California: Gentle southerly flow will persist across
the Gulf of California through the weekend.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Winds will pulse to fresh to strong during
the overnight and early morning hours through Monday, with max
seas building to 7-8 ft. On Monday, winds are forecast to reach
near gale force, with seas building to 9-10 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: fresh to strong offshore winds are expected
during this morning, with moderate to fresh winds thereafter.

Otherwise, gentle NE to E winds are expected N of the monsoon
trough, while moderate southerly winds are expected S of the
monsoon trough axis through the weekend with 3 to 6 ft seas.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure centered near 41N141W extends a ridge southeast to
near 22N113W. Except as previously mentioned in the special
features section, moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow is
forecast N of the monsoon trough west of 120W.

$$
Mundell



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