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000
FNUS28 KWNS 202110
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0410 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

VALID 221200Z - 281200Z

UPPER PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
CATEGORIZED BY A LARGE...DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW...AN
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS...AND AN ADDITIONAL UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY. THE UPPER MIDWEST
LOW WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH A DEEP TROUGH WHICH COVERS MUCH OF ERN N
AMERICA BY D4/THU. THIS OVERALL PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS AN OMEGA BLOCK FAVORS
ONLY SLOWLY WLY PROGRESS.

...D3/WED - D8/MON: SOUTHWEST...
ENHANCED SWLY FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THE NW PACIFIC UPPER LOW IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DEEP MIXING AND A VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS WILL
FAVOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. PRESENTLY...THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IN CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS ON D3/WED ACROSS NW AZ/FAR SRN NV AND ON
D4/THU ACROSS NRN AZ. CRITICAL DELINEATIONS WERE MADE FOR THESE
AREAS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR
DELINEATION OF ANY CRITICAL AREAS ATTM. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
CRITICAL AREAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS ONCE MODEL
DATA INDICATES MORE AREAL CONSISTENCY.

..MOSIER.. 05/20/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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