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000
FXUS63 KIWX 191806 CCA
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
156 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and cool this weekend with frost possible Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1136 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Omega blocking pattern present over western Canada which will be
interesting to see what kind of temporal issues are encountered
with the latest modeling data. Typically the models become more
progressive with blocks and so the actual atmospheric evolution
may be hours to days pushed back. Having said that the eastern
trough of this omega block will sit over the Great Lake region
bringing colder and drier conditions. Highs Saturday will
struggle to get out of the 40s. We then have our main concern
this weekend which will be Sunday mornings low temperatures and
potential morning frost. With many plants having emerged or in
the process of emerging will be susceptible to frost damage.

Clouds will be in focus on Sunday morning as if lingering low to
mid level clouds are still in place that would be enough to keep
low temperatures up a degree or two. The better chance for cloud
cover will be the southern half of the CWA, which means the
better chance for frost will be the northern half of the area
and areas away from Lake Michigan. So northwest OH, northeast
IN, and southeast MI will have the higher chances for frost.
Lows on Sunday will range from 30 to 35 degrees. We will
continue to monitor this situation in subsequent shifts for any
potential advisory issuance.

Dry weather continues at least through Monday. As mentioned
earlier the blocky pattern may cause forecast headaches as
earlier runs had a trough dropping into the region late Monday
into Tuesday but looks to be pushed back into later in the day
on Tuesday. This trough would present the next chance of
precipitation and another shot at cooler air with highs in the
50s on Wednesday and lows back into the 30s by Thursday
morning. May need to watch for another potential frost event.
Ridging then returns on Thursday and temperatures will gradually
warm once again with highs back into the low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Dry, cool and somewhat breezy conditions will persist in wnw through
the TAF cycle.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Andersen
AVIATION...Steinwedel