Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
644
FXXX10 KWNP 070031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 May 07 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 07-May 09 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 07-May 09 2024
May 07 May 08 May 09
00-03UT 2.00 2.33 2.67
03-06UT 2.67 2.67 2.67
06-09UT 2.33 2.67 2.33
09-12UT 1.67 2.00 2.33
12-15UT 2.00 2.00 2.33
15-18UT 2.67 1.00 2.33
18-21UT 3.00 2.00 2.33
21-00UT 4.00 2.00 2.00
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 07-May 09 2024
May 07 May 08 May 09
S1 or greater 25% 25% 25%
Rationale: A chance for a S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm will persist
through 09 May primarily due to the presence and recent flare history of
ARs 3663 and 3664.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 06 2024 0635 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 07-May 09 2024
May 07 May 08 May 09
R1-R2 90% 90% 90%
R3 or greater 50% 50% 50%
Rationale: R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to M-class flare
activity are expected through 09 May given the evolution of ARs 3663
and 3664 as well as their recent flare history. In addition, a high
chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) radio blackout will persist through
09 May as well given AR 3663s history of X-class flares.