Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
165 FXUS65 KBOI 280903 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 303 AM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024 .SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night...A deep upper level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest today, bringing slightly cooler temperatures and increased cloud cover to the region. A cold front with strong winds will move through on Monday, bringing slightly below normal temperatures and gusty winds. The Magic Valley, Camas Prairie, and Upper Treasure Valley will see the strongest winds, with sustained west winds around 25-35 mph and gusts anywhere from 40 to 50 mph. High terrain in south central ID could see gusts as high as 60 mph. Therefore, a wind advisory has been issued for Monday afternoon- evening for the Upper Treasure Valley, Camas Prairie, and Magic Valley zones. This cold front looks to be mostly dry, but there is a slight chance of showers for the northern most areas of our CWA, in the West Central Mountains and Baker County, OR. Instability during the day looks to be limited, mainly due to cooler temperatures, but there is low confidence (10-20% chance) in afternoon thunderstorms as the front moves through on Monday. A better chance of precipitation (70-80% chance) over the mountains exists overnight on Monday night into Tuesday morning as the trough moves to our north. Colder temperatures will mean most of this will fall as snow over the higher terrain. Snow levels look to be around 3000-4000 feet overnight throughout the region, but weak moisture aloft (precipitable water values in the 20th-30th percentiles) will limit snowfall accumulations for those areas. This upper level trough will deepen into a closed low as it moves east, keeping us in zonal flow. The pressure gradient will remain tight over our region through Tuesday, so breezy westerly winds, albeit lower than Monday, will persist through the short term period for most of the region. LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...The models are in decent agreement with regard to the large scale pattern through the end of the week, but differ somewhat in the details. An upper trough over Idaho on Wednesday will support a chance (mainly 15-40 percent) of showers over the higher elevations of SW Idaho, but any precip amounts will be light. A weak and short-lived upper ridge, accompanied by dry conditions, moves through the region Wednesday night through Thursday. A Pacific upper low is then progged to move through the region late Thursday into Friday. Models agree on the timing of the system, but differ in the track with some ensemble members favoring a northern track which would maintain dry conditions across most of our area, while other members depict a track closer to our area resulting in a better chance of showers. Latest forecast will show a 15-30 percent chance of showers over the northern high terrain. An upper ridge returns on Saturday for dry conditions. Confidence diminishes early next week due to significant differences in the timing, strength, and track of the next Pacific low pressure system, which has implications on the forecast for our area. A blend of models results in precipitation chances generally in the 15-30 percent range on Sunday. Wednesday will be the coolest day through the period with below normal temperatures, warming to near normal on Thursday and above normal by the end of the week. && .AVIATION...VFR. Isolated showers over the mountains north of KBKE- KMYL. Snow levels 5500-6500 ft MSL. Surface winds: W to NW 5-15 kt, becoming 10-20 kt after 28/17Z. Gusts to 30 kt east of KMUO, including KTWF/KJER. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W to NW 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: NW 5-10 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...SA LONG TERM....BW AVIATION.....BW